2022 Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Schedule, & Fantasy Football Team Preview
Hello Grinders and welcome back to the 2022 NFL team previews. It is a new look Chiefs team as they lost their big play threat in the offseason. I’m not completely sure how they will figure it out and be just fine but I trust that they will. Why? Because Patrick f’n Mahomes, that’s why. Read on as we’ll discuss KC from a betting/DFS perspective and how they’ll try and replace the departed Tyreek Hill.
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2022 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule, Lines, and Best Bets
Projected Odds, derived & modified from data originally published by Sean Koerner here.
Win Total and Total Games Favored:
10.5 (-110) / 15 Games Favored ( 4 Big Favorites / 0 Big Dogs)
Despite having the least favorable schedule in the NFL according to Warren Sharp, the Chiefs are projected to be favored in 15 games. Ten of their games have a 3-point spread or less, so it is reasonable to expect a lot of close, high scoring shootouts. Circle your calendar for a Week 6 rematch of last year’s absolutely wild divisional playoff matchup vs. Buffalo. The bar is high, but this promises to be one of the more stackable games of the year.
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes OVER 4550.5 yards
I just trust Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to figure it out. Their defense is expected to be subpar and, if you look at their schedule, the Chiefs should play a pile of high scoring shootouts. Mahomes has exceeded this number in three of the last four years, with injury being the reason for the one under. It is worth noting this number is 100 yards lower on the FanDuel Sportsbook than other books, which is a good reminder that price shopping is a must when betting.
Kansas City Chiefs Props
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Favorite Prop: Skyy Moore UNDER 675.5 yards
There are a lot of unknowns here, and the potential ranges of outcome are vast. Moore grabbed a lot of buzz after KC drafted him in the 2nd Round of this year’s NFL Draft, and many presumed him to be the heir apparent to Tyreek Hill. I’m not certain that will be the case. At least not right away. He missed most of the KC offseason program with a hamstring injury, and the Chiefs signed legit WR free agent talent in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Frankly, I’m not even certain Moore is ahead of the returning Mecole Hardman on the depth chart, as he could possibly start the season as the WR4. Bottom line, I don’t know where the chips are gonna fall here, but I’m leaning against the hype. Which isn’t comfortable, but here we are.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections
Team Rankings and Ratings
Offense Ranks:Rank 1/ Average Rush / Elite Pass/ Rank 3 Points For)
Defense Ranks:Rank 15/ Average Rush / Below Average pass / Rank 10 Points Allowed)
Opponent Strength – Rushing:6 difficult vs. rush. 5 soft vs. rush.
Opponent Strength – Passing:6 difficult vs. pass. 4 soft vs. pass.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are back and that’s enough for me to trust their offense will continue to be elite. The defense (24th DVOA last season and 25th ranked d-line this yr according to PFF) is expected to be bad enough that they should be involved in a lot of punch, counterpunch high-scoring contests. The loss of Tyreek Hill isn’t ideal, but you can absolutely argue that the overall WR depth has improved. No one player will replace him, but collectively I think they mostly will.
Kansas City Chiefs Top Fantasy Football Plays & Picks
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Patrick Mahomes – Underdog Rank: 41 (ADP 49 / 19.51% ADP Gap)
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Underdog Rank: 86 (ADP 84 / -2.33% ADP Gap)
RB: Ronald Jones – Underdog Rank: 128 (ADP 123 / -3.91% ADP Gap)
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster – Underdog Rank: 67 (ADP 56 / -16.42% ADP Gap)
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Underdog Rank: 96 (ADP 91 / -5.21% ADP Gap)
WR: Skyy Moore – Underdog Rank: 137 (ADP 98 – -28.47% ADP Gap)
TE: Travis Kelce – Underdog Rank: 11 (ADP 12 / 9.09% ADP Gap)
*Note: Premium Subscribers can find updated rankings for Underdog Fantasy in the content schedule here.
New Additions of Note: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Ronald Jones
Departures of Note: Tyreek Hill, Darrel Williams, Byron Pringle, Demarcus Robinson, Tyrann Mathieu
Travis Kelce is pretty clearly fantasy football’s TE1. There is a lot of guess work regarding the KC WR situation, but what we do know is that Kelce will be Mahomes’ #1 target and is well positioned to have a massive season. If there is one knock here it would be that Kelce turns 33 early in the season. I can be a bit of a football ageist but I’m happy to make an exception here.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a massive aDOT last season (over 17) giving him an appealing ceiling. Presumably MVS will continue to stretch the field for KC, and he’ll almost definitely drop a DFS slate breaking 5-140-2 performance at least once if not multiple times this season. Good luck pinpointing when it happens.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off an injury riddled throwaway season. He signed a 1 yr /3.25 mil show me deal with KC. JuJu’s shine has faded significantly, but he landed in a perfect situation to potentially resurrect his career. Will he take advantage of this opportunity? idk shrug.gif
Stop me if you heard this before, but maybe, just maybe Mecole Hardman can be a thing this year. He is still just 24 and while it hasn’t been consistent, he has occasionally flashed the skills that made him a 2nd Round pick.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has significantly underachieved so far in his short NFL career, but we can attribute his hiccups at least in part to injuries. Assuming a return to health, CEH is the best chance for someone to be impactful in the KC backfield.
Image Credit: Imagn