KC's Weekend Preview 9/28
Seeing as the predominant action in the DFS industry is now taking place on weekends in the form of CFB, NFL and for one-more week MLB, I thought that I would shift my article focus to address all things important for the upcoming weekend. And who knows, I may even come back after the weekend has concluded to offer closing arguments and remarks about what has transpired.
So lets begin with the topic that is trending worldwide and how it may affect our industry specifically.
NO MORE REPLACEMENT REFS!!
Not entirely sure this has much if any impact at all on how we prepare / select our DFS teams in the coming weeks, but it sure is awesome to know that the NFL will no longer be an embarrassment.
For the entirety of Roger Goodell’s reign as NFL commissioner he has been portrayed with this aura of invincibility and all-knowingness. Well now in the past 2 months he has been brought back down to Earth in the form of the ‘Saints Appeals’ and now in the epic-failure of his ‘Substitute Zebras’. This is just another example of why you should never give red-heads too much power.
As far as DFS impact I’d say maybe we see a little bit of a bump in wide receiver production. Guys that have struggled thus far in 2012 like Greg Jennings, Dez Bryant and Wes Welker should see an uptick as they are no longer manhandled downfield without any sign of flags from the disgraceful replacements.
Oh and one last thing… Can’t wait to see ‘Hocules’
Now that that’s out of the way, we move onto some commentary in each individual sport.
MLB Weekend Report
Actual News
In case you’ve completely tuned-out MLB since the pigskin has taken over, there are actually (2) players chasing triple crowns. Miguel Cabrera has a legit shot to lead the AL in HRs, RBIs and AVG by the time 2012 ends. And in the NL R.A. Dickey could finish 2012 as the leader in Wins, ERA and Ks.
These are both really special accomplishments if they can pull them off. (almost as cool as proposing to your GF in the Grand Canyon then almost dying of leg cramps). So this is what I’m monitoring as the regular season wraps up.
Daily Fantasy Baseball News
A few sites, namely FanDuel and DailyJoust I believe, are running qualifiers for large NFL tourneys through MLB satellites. So if MLB is your sport of expertise use these last few opportunities to get yourself a few big money lottery tickets for NFL season. Might be your easiest chance to make some real $$.
College Football Report
So it turns out I had a pretty fantastic week in NCAAFB last week. So I’m giving myself a trial period of advice offering. It if goes well I may continue, and if not I apologize for this transgression.
Actual CFB News
These are the games I’m watching this week (purely for enjoyment, rather than DFS)
- Early: (25) Baylor at (9) WVU
-This is going to be the shootout. Around 80 for the O/U. The DFS options are at insane prices but for pure offensive enjoyment it doesn’t get better than this. You know what we thought we were getting with Oregon/Arizona last week? This is gonna be it.
- Afternoon: (14) Ohio St. at (20) Mich. St.
-Just as the first game wraps up you shift over to this and see some good ol’ Big 10 football. Ohio State is undefeated thus far, but has looked far from invincible. The mighty Spartans of Michigan State and their new bruiser Leveon Bell will be looking to prove that they are still the class of the conference.
- Evening: (12) Texas at Okla St.
-Texas has a dominant run game and Okla St has a passing offense that has looked unstoppable at times early in 2012. In a week where Big 12 powerhouses Kansas St. and Oklahoma are resting, this game will go a long way towards showing who has a legitimate chance of joining the upper-echelon of Big 12 squads.
College Football Daily Fantasy News
I know that picks aren’t really my forte but I think I’ve got a few worthy noting on Saturday:
- Matthew Tucker – RB – (TCU)
– This was a split backfield but former backfield mate Waymon James is out for the year with a knee. The price is right against anyone but a matchup vs. the hapless Run DEF of SMU makes this a beautiful opportunity.
- Donnell Kirkwood – RB – (MINN)
– MarQues Gray seems destined to miss at least one more week at the QB spot in GopherTown. In his absence Kirkwood has been a workhorse and he should see 25+ touches again against Iowa on Saturday. Price for Kirkwood isn’t anywhere near where it should be, making him a great safe play for your H2Hs.
- Kenbrell Thompkins – WR – (CIN)
– For some odd reason Cincinnati has had 2 byes in the first 4 weeks of the season. But that shapes up as good news for the price tags. Thompkins is a BIG receiver with breakout game ability. The Bearcats other receiving threat, Anthony McClung looks like he may miss with an elbow, making Thompkins the only real option for good ol’ Munchie vs. VaTech on Saturday.
In industry related news, we now have four sites running great CFB products with the launch of Draftkings CFB. Make sure to give them all a fair shot this weekend.
NFL Report
Actual News
We addressed referees at opening, so we will move on from that. I’ve got (2) things I’ll really be focusing on from a non-DFS prospective this weekend. The first is that the NO Saints are probably going to be 0-4. We knew this ‘bounty thing’ was bad news but to fall this far this quick is really surprising. A pissed-off Aaron Rodgers and company seem destined to put up some massive points in Lambeau, leaving Drew Brees wondering where to go from here.
In other news, Michael Vick has been to say it nicely ‘ineffective’ thus far. His 2 TD / 6 INT ratio is by far the worst in the league. There is real chatter about rookie Nick Foles taking the reigns for an Eagles Team that has looked far from ‘A Dream Team’ this NFL campaign. And the Giants D-Line coming to town is not good for someone with pressure to perform (just ask Cam Newton)
NFL Daily Fantasy News
Which Big-Time Grinder is going to qualify for FFFC this weekend? The run of All-Stars we’ve had atop the industry’s most prestigious tournament has been nothing short of miraculous. Lookin’ forward to seeing whos at the top after Monday.
I don’t have any ‘out-of-this-world’ picks for you for NFL, but I have to say that there are definitely two games that intrigue me most from a fantasy-prospective.
- Saints / Packers:
This game has the highest O/U of the weekend at 54, but who gets the points? Both teams have an array of options, making the only safe bets Rodgers, Graham and Brees. But with the huge projected point total, there are have to be one or two other guys to have big games. I’m betting on Jennings from the Pack and Colston from the Saints, but your guess is as good as mine.
- Chicago / Dallas:
Both teams come off hugely disappointing efforts last week. The Bears mustered very little offense against a Rams team known across the DFS world for targeting those players going against them. The Cowboys on the other hand come off a low-scoring ugly affair with the Bucs in which not one single guy had an offensive day worth a shit. Prices for Romo, Bryant and Murray seem reasonable, but the question remains as to whether last week was a warning or an anomaly. Play at your own risk.
But anyway, that’s all I got… I hope that reading this got you as pumped as for the weekend as writing it did for me. See you in DFS Universe.