Kevin Cole's 2018 NFL Betting Model: Week 3
Along with working extensively on NFL projections this season, I’m also putting the data to use projecting game outcomes and scores. We can, of course, apply these projections against the going betting spreads and over/under totals to see where there might be value.
In addition, this information can provide value in DFS by finding teams who are likely to outperform their point totals implied by the spreads and over/unders.
Each week this season I’m going to post the model’s spread and total picks on with the lines as of Thursday and Sunday.
Methodology
The betting model incorporates roughly seven years of historical data to train the model and it was tested on the 2016-2017 seasons, yielding hit rates of roughly 60%. While the model has shown promising results, it is still a work in progress and needs additional testing to boost out-of-sample performance. The numbers below are best viewed as a tool, not the definitive answers.
The model incorporates multiple rolling periods or opponent-adjusted data for offense and defense, adjustments for pace, and adjustment for quarterbacks. Non-quarterback additions and injuries are not built into the model. If you believe Khalil Mack is worth multiple points per game for the Chicago Bears defense, make adjustments accordingly.
The model also looks at QB and team stats together, which can hold down the numbers for teams like the Chiefs who have strong QB play, but not much history.
The model does not yet account for weather, which isn’t a big concern this early in the season.
“Spread Pick” Those highlighted in green means the favorite is projected to beat the spread, red if the underdog is projected to beat the spread. “O/U Pick” is green for games predicted to go over, red for games predicted to go under.
Week 2 Review
Last week, the model went 8-6 on side and total plays based on betting lines on Thursday around 4 ET, or 6-5 based on lines on Sunday morning.
Here are the number for Weeks 1 & 2
Week 3 Picks
Picks as of Sunday at roughly noon p.m. ET
The model is going against the absurdly high totals this week, but it could be a bug not a feature. If scoring is really going to continue at the torrid place we’ve sen the first couple weeks, the model will be wrong. But if things turn back to some sort of normalcy, there is an opportunity to profit.
The model still has some of its favorite plays on the board, including the Chargers that it has picked every week. The only pick that fell off the board between Thursday and Sunday is the Jaguars, where the line moved up substantially to -10.5.
It’s tough to make sense of the 16.5 line in the MIN-BUF game, but the model is assuming taking that many points in an NFL matchup is generally the right move.
The Packers haven’t played nearly as well as their record would indicate, including coming away with a tie last week despite getting outplayed by the Vikings in terms of metrics that are much more predictive like yards per play. The Redskins might be undervalued as a consequence.
The Bills get a lot of press as being awful this year, but the Cardinals might actually be the worst team in the NFL. They are basically tied with the Bills in yards per play, but the Bills have jettisoned Nathan Peterman, who dragged down numbers much more than Josh Allen.
Picks as of Thursday at roughly noon p.m. ET
The play for tonight according to the model is the Over, with both teams expected to score above the paltry implied totals based on a 39.5 O/U. The Browns are a lean tonight, but not strong enough to register as a full play.
I’ll include more commentary for the rest of the games on Sunday morning.