Kevin Cole's 2018 NFL Betting Model: Week 5
Along with working extensively on NFL projections this season, I’m also putting the data to use projecting game outcomes and scores. We can, of course, apply these projections against the going betting spreads and over/under totals to see where there might be value.
In addition, this information can provide value in DFS by finding teams who are likely to outperform their point totals implied by the spreads and over/unders.
Each week this season I’m going to post the model’s spread and total picks on with the lines as of Thursday and Sunday.
Methodology
The betting model incorporates roughly seven years of historical data to train the model and it was tested on the 2016-2017 seasons, yielding hit rates of roughly 60%. While the model has shown promising results, it is still a work in progress and needs additional testing to boost out-of-sample performance. The numbers below are best viewed as a tool, not the definitive answers.
The model incorporates multiple rolling periods or opponent-adjusted data for offense and defense, adjustments for pace, and adjustment for quarterbacks. Non-quarterback additions and injuries are not built into the model. If you believe Khalil Mack is worth multiple points per game for the Chicago Bears defense, make adjustments accordingly.
The model also looks at QB and team stats together, which can hold down the numbers for teams like the Chiefs who have strong QB play, but not much history.
The model does not yet account for weather, which isn’t a big concern this early in the season.
“Spread Pick” Those highlighted in green means the favorite is projected to beat the spread, red if the underdog is projected to beat the spread. “O/U Pick” is green for games predicted to go over, red for games predicted to go under.
Week 4 Review
Last week, the model was roughly flat at 5-4-1 based on Thursday lines and 4-5-1 on Sunday.
Here are the numbers so far this year.
Week 5 Picks
Picks as of Sunday at roughly 9 a.m. ET
Picks as of Thursday at roughly 10 a.m. ET
Tonight model likes the Colts as 10-point underdogs on the road in New England. The model had a play on the under earlier in the week, but the line fell to 51 from 53.5. The Patriots looked like the team of old last week against the Dolphins, but there is still some reason to be skeptical that they will return to form.