Kevin Cole's 2018 NFL Betting Model: Week 7
Along with working extensively on NFL projections this season, I’m also putting the data to use projecting game outcomes.
Last week, we introduced a new model for side bets only and the model’s picks will only be posted on Thursday. The first version of the model is what I will call 1.0, and this model is the results of a lot of work during the season to develop a power-ranking system based on play-by-play data.
The data I’m using also has advanced metrics, including expected points added (EPA) and success rates based on EPA.
I will continue track total record for the year, along with what the results are of the new model.
Methodology
The betting model is based on a combination of offense and defensive play-by-play stats, including success rate, or how often a play has positive EPA, yards per play, and EPA per play. The offensive and defense metrics are calculated for every team on a weekly basis and those trailing results are the basis for projecting team strength in upcoming matchups.
Week 6 Review
Last week, the new model had a good week 4-2 for strong plays, while both leans (1-2 point spread differential) of Jets and Niners hit and the Cardinals pushed. Based on Thursday-Sunday line movement, the Chargers also became a play at +1 and the model viewed them as a 1.5 favorite at the Browns.
For full disclosure, here are the numbers for the new and old model that has been discontinued.
Week 7 Power Grades
The power grades here are the expected point differential for each team against an average team on a neutral field. The offensive and defensive ranks are based on 2018, the total power rank also incorporates offensive and defensive stats going back to 2017.
Week 7 Picks
Picks as of Thursday at roughly 10 a.m. ET
These picks are based on the power rankings above, with adjustments for home field advantage, and additional/fewer days of rest. The darker green/red plays are the strongest plays for home/away team on the week. The lighter green/red cells are the leans of the week.
