Lakers vs. Mavericks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Lakers vs. Mavericks Odds
| Lakers Odds | +8.5 |
| Mavericks Odds | -8.5 |
| Over/Under | 230 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 25 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
NBA Christmas Day will continue with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers traveling to Texas to battle Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks for an early afternoon matchup. Entering play, the Lakers remain 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for the final play-in spot in the standings. The Mavericks are currently tied for the 8th-best record in the conference, but are only four games behind the top-seeded Denver Nuggets in a crowded Western Conference. In this holiday affair, oddsmakers are anticipating a relatively easy win for Dallas, pricing them as 8.5-point home favorites on the spread at American Airlines Center.
Los Angeles Lakers
Through their first 32 games, the Lakers have, at times, looked as though they could win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, but at other times looked as though they were capable of making a postseason run. After beginning the year 2-10, this group won eight of their subsequent 10 contests, but then won only one of their next five games. Their season took a dark turn after learning that Anthony Davis will be out indefinitely after suffering a stress injury in his foot. Per Cleaning the Glass, Los Angeles ranks in the 57th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 68th percentile in defensive efficiency when Davis is on the floor this year, but only the 22nd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 11th percentile in defensive efficiency when Davis is off of the floor.
Since Davis last played on December 16, Los Angeles has only one win in four games and ranks 27th in the NBA in Net Rating, having been outscored by 9.9 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers have been underwhelming across the board in that span, ranking 28th in rebound percentage, 29th in opponent three-point attempts, 18th in opponent three-point percentage, and 21st in opponent assists per game. Simply, teams have been able to exert their will wherever they choose to do so with Davis on the sidelines.
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic has been nothing short of sensational during the first-half of the campaign, averaging 32.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game – each of which leads Dallas. On Christmas, he is unlikely to face much resistance against a feeble Los Angeles defense that has allowed at least 130 points in each of their last three games. Notably, each of those teams rank worse than Dallas during the month of December in offensive efficiency. Across Dallas’ last 13 games, they rank fourth in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, the Mavericks continue to be underwhelming – ranking 16th in defensive efficiency during December and 12th in defensive efficiency during November. In particular, the Mavericks struggle to defend mid-range jumpers, ranking 30th in opponent field-goal percentage on such shot attempts. LeBron James could be the primary beneficiary of this defensive vulnerability, considering that he is attempting twice as many mid-range shot attempts per game compared to any other member of the Lakers’ active roster.
Lakers vs. Mavericks – Picks & Predictions
Despite the Lakers’ recent struggles, there is some reason to believe that they will, at minimum, be able to keep this contest competitive on Sunday. Per Action Network, teams that are receiving at least 70% of bets on Christmas since 2005 are 4-5 ATS. In general, public sides are only 31-42 in that time period. As of this writing, Dallas is receiving 75% of bets and 81% of the money at sportsbooks, per ScoresAndOdds. Players are human beings too, meaning that holiday distractions can lead to more competitive contests than we may see if this same matchup took place on a random Tuesday in January. It may not be psychologically comfortable, but Los Angeles is worth a small wager in this spot.
PICK: Lakers +8.5 (-115, MGM)
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