Raiders vs. Seahawks Odds, Picks, and Prediction

Article Image

Raiders vs. Seahawks Odds

Raiders Odds +4
Seahawks Odds -4
Over/Under 47.5
Date Sun, Nov. 27
Time 4:05 p.m.
TV CBS

On Sunday afternoon, the Las Vegas Raiders will make a short trip to Lumen Field to play the Seattle Seahawks. Las Vegas is fresh off of a 22-16 overtime victory against the Denver Broncos, but the Raiders remain only 3-7 for the season, with their postseason hopes quickly fading. Seattle had the benefit of a bye in Week 11 after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Germany the prior weekend. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting a Seattle victory, pricing the Seahawks as 4-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Las Vegas Raiders

Per Adam Schefter, running back Josh Jacobs is expected to play this afternoon, despite being limited in practice this week with a calf injury. Though running backs are rarely enough to move the needle on the spread, Las Vegas’ offense is certainly better with Jacobs on the field – ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards and attempts, and 5th in rushing touchdowns, as an integral part of the Raiders’ offense. Regardless, the Raiders’ potential as an offense is limited due to a porous offensive line, which ranks 29th in run-blocking and 13th in overall performance, per Pro Football Focus.

Defensively, Las Vegas has been a colossal disappointment this fall, ranking 30th in EPA/play through 10 games. The Raiders have been particularly poor against opposing passing attacks, ranking 32nd in Dropback EPA/play, 29th in opponent passing yards-per-attempt, and 32nd in opponent completion percentage. Other than edge rusher Maxx Crosby, there is very little that is positive to say about this unit, which is allowing 24.1 points per game – good for 24th in the league.

Seattle Seahawks

After trading Russell Wilson in the offseason, there were more than a few Geno Smith doubters, and understandably so – given that Smith had not played a full season as a starting quarterback since an abysmal 2014 campaign, during which he had a 13-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing less than 60.0% of his pass attempts. Despite ranking 9th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes, 6th in interceptions, and 4th in QBR this fall, many pundits still seem to have their perception of Smith warped by his contributions from nearly a decade ago. Through 10 games, Seattle ranks 7th in Dropback EPA/play and 7th in passing yards per attempt. The emergence of running back Kenneth Walker has only further elevated the ceiling of this offensive attack. Facing a weak Las Vegas defense on Sunday, bettors should not be surprised to see Smith and company put together another strong showing.

From Week 1 to Week 5, the Seahawks’ defense ranked 25th in Rush EPA/play. However, since Week 6, Seattle ranks 4th in defensive Rush EPA/play, trailing only the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, and Minnesota Vikings in that span. The addition of Bruce Irvin, even in a limited role, has paid dividends, with him grading excellently as a run-stopper in three of his four games since Week 7, per Pro Football Focus. Quinton Jefferson is the only weak link on a defensive line that has suddenly become one of the more respectable units in the league. Seattle has also been strong against opposing passing attacks as the season has progressed, ranking 8th in defensive Dropback EPA/play since Week 6. Fifth-round draft pick Tariq Woolen has overperformed expectations at cornerback by wide margins as a rookie, and has quickly become a dependable member of this secondary unit. Safety Ryan Neal has the 6th-best coverage grade of any player at his position in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. He continues to excel as a run defender as well, and has only become better in this area as the season has progressed. Seattle’s defense has gone from a preseason afterthought to one of the more productive groups in the NFL.

Raiders vs. Seahawks – Picks & Predictions

Earlier in the season, the over became a borderline default bet on any game involving the Seattle Seahawks. From Week 3 to Week 7, Seattle’s game totals ended with 50 points, 93 points, 71 points, 28 points, and 60 points, respectively. However, only one of their last three contests has eclipsed 40 points, with the Seahawks’ defense playing much-improved football across the last month. Similarly, the Las Vegas Raiders had a seemingly endless number of points scored in their games from Week 2 to Week 7. Yet, none of their matchups across the last month of action have had a final game total with more than 47 points. Both Las Vegas and Seattle rank 20th or slower in pace in their last three games and 26th or slower in pace for the entirety of the season. The under is a deceptively good look in this afternoon’s affair.

PICK: Under 49 (-132, DraftKings)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom