LCS Quarterfinals DFS Preview: Day 2
Welcome to Day 2 of the LCS playoffs, featuring analysis and picks covering AlphaDraft and DraftKings League of Legends contests.
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H2k Gaming (-150) vs. Fnatic (+123)
Right off the bat, I’ll say that I disagree with oddsmakers as well as Daily Fantasy sites for their approach to this series. I have a difficult time seeing H2k is a genuine favorite here, even as well as they performed after the return of Forg1ven. It’s a small sample of games and everything here seems to discredit Fnatic’s ability as a team. The changes to the game in the recent patch would seem to favor H2k in that Forg1ven is quite a strong laner, where as Reckless is rather mediocre. It’s still too short of a notice to expect the former to truly mesh with a team he was run out of just a few months ago. To me, this series is much closer to a coin flip and should be approached as such when creating lineups.
Given that both of today’s series could go either way, it’s going to be important to get the right exposure for each team. Don’t sleep on any team and there are only a few players who I’m strictly avoiding. Reckless is certainly the player I am least interested in here. Should Fnatic win, his numbers will be there, but I still prefer Febiven. Odoamne is the least tempting player on H2k. His play has topped out at this point and this is Kikis’ big chance to show he is Fnatic’s top lane of the future.
Game Targets
Ryu (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – With others flocking to Forg1ven in his triumphant return, I’m more interested in Ryu. He’s finally been stepping up as a carry in recent weeks after being a so-so player for several months. He’s H2k’s biggest shot at making a deep run in the playoffs.
Spirit (DK $5,600, AD $7,300) – Spirit never quite reached the heights that I believed he would when he joined Fnatic ahead of the Spring Split. His play stagnated for quite some time and only recently has there been flashes of the team WE Spirit. Similar to Ryu, Spirit may be the surprise carry for Fnatic if they are going to stay alive in these playoffs for longer than expected.
Kikis (DK $6,000, AD $7,200) – Given the relative weakness of the top lane on today’s slate, it only makes sense to pay down. This is a big opportunity for Kikis and Odoamne isn’t a particularly scary obstacle. Kikis won’t suddenly become Huni-like, but winning his lane without jungle assistance would go a long way toward Fnatic being able to greater assist Reckless and Yellowstar, who are going to need it.
Counter Logic Gaming (-170) vs. Team Liquid (+139)
I suspect the public will love Liquid here. At discount prices and the recent best of three between those teams, it’s hard to argue against it. I’m going to do it anyway. Yes, Dardoch remains a cash game staple as he is on nearly any slate where Liquid isn’t facing TSM. However, I think the masses are going to flock to Liquid quite heavily in tournaments, which is why I think we need to be considering how to approach CLG. The changes in the latest patch favor CLG and that’s where we can begin to find advantages for the defending champions. CLG are the most well prepared team in the region and should be able to take advantage of a player like fabbbyyy, who may be the weakest player in this series.
Working against CLG is that Darshan is simply no longer one of North America’s best players. Lourlo on the other hand has taken serious strides forward and is now one of the better top laners in the LCS, whereas he was clearly one of the worst earlier this year. Darshan used to waffle between being a split pusher while occasionally showing up as a primary carry. Now he’s just there. With a KP of 55%, it’s very difficult to want to roster him in fantasy. He also died 132 times and is surrounded in that category by players who play for bottom feeder teams. All that said, I am still looking at CLG members other than Darshan, especially in tournament formats.
Game Targets
Stixxay (DK $7,200, AD $8,000) – During the playoffs earlier this year, and at MSI, Stixxay showed up bigger than he has at any other point in his short career. He should be good enough that, along with Aphromoo, the CLG bottom lane can gain early game advantages. Whether the late game team fight crusher that was the MSI version of Stixxay returns certainly remains to be seen, but don’t sleep on it.
Fenix (DK $7,600, AD $6,800) – Fenix is another player that has improved this season. He’s clearly never going to reach Jensen or Bjergsen levels of carry, but he doesn’t need to against Huhi. With Piglet out of the picture, Fenix clearly understands the need to step up as the team’s big gun more often than was previously needed, and has been successful more than he ever was before in that role. Fenix’s 3.8 kills/game are significantly higher than fabbbyyy’s 2.1.
Xmithie (DK $6,100, AD $7,700) – Everyone will have Dardoch. And they should, he’s one of the region’s best players and a serious fantasy threat. You should consider Xmithie instead, particularly in tournaments, as discussed above. He’s not a Dardoch level player, but is one of NA’s most underrated players and will play a big role in CLG’s game plan.
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