LCS Third Place DFS Preview
Check out the preview for all the games coming up this Saturday. This article will cover slates on both AlphaDraft and DraftKings.
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LCS Third Place DFS Preview
H2K (-241) vs. Unicorns of Love (+193)
Unfortunately for daily fantasy players, the EU LCS continues to disappoint when it comes to putting up those big fantasy numbers and it essentially forces players to stack as heavily as possible on the NA side of things. H2K in particular has been lacking in the combined kills/deaths per game department while Unicorns of Love remain the outlier with extremely bloody games appearing far more frequently for them than anyone else in the region. To put it in perspective, Cloud 9 and Immortals had a combined 24 kills in 4 of the 5 games they played in the semifinals. H2K and Splyce only managed to exceed 24 combined kills in 1 of the 5 games they played. If the Unicorns of Love get to play their way, things could get bloody and turn in their favor but that would also open up more fantasy opportunities for H2K so that is what every DFS player should be hoping for in this series. I think it will end up somewhere in the middle and though it doesn’t get me too excited for the fantasy plays in this series, there are definitely some viable options. When I’m looking at these rosters, I actually like the plays on the UOL side a bit more than H2K because of that style of play I referenced before. If UOL goes down in this one they will go down swinging and that is just fine by me.
H2K
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Forg1ven – (DK $7,500, AD $7,900) – Part of me really wants to say, “This is Forg1ven’s time to finally come through in the playoffs and perform at a truly elite level for fantasy purposes.” But the more I look at how H2K plays, I just can’t feel confident calling Forg1ven the number one ADC on this slate. In fact, I think Stixxay may be able to put up numbers that threaten that of Forg1ven. But wait, I’m supposed to be telling you why you’re supposed to roster Forg1ven instead of giving you reasons not to. The simple answer is: Security. You just can’t afford to have a dud at the ADC position in cash games and no player on this slate is more secure at this position. The ceiling for the NA carries is going to be high by the nature of how the team’s play but Forg1ven is a player that hardly ever costs you in fantasy with death numbers and he is going to be the carry in this series just based off of the matchup. The bottom lane is where H2K has the huge advantage and I’ll look for them to push that and get Forg1ven fed which will have fantasy owners feeling confident that this won’t be another playoff blunder from the veteran ADC.
Unicorns of Love
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Exileh (DK $6,400, AD $7,700) – This may be the least impressive mid lane pool we’ve seen during the NA/EU playoffs. There is no star player here and despite some favorable matchups at the top, I’m more willing to take a chance on the lower end at this position on this slate. Exileh has been stuffing the stat sheet throughout the playoffs with 35 kills and 42 assists over 8 games. Ryu in the same number of games, matches Exileh in assists but only has secured 23 kills. I think Ryu is a pretty good player who has stepped up recently, but Exileh has shown he has more potential for big games and his champion pool features many classic “boom or bust” champs. This is certainly a viable play and I prefer it more in DraftKings than on Alphadraft but he still fits nicely in the flex spot on AD. This Unicorns team is tough to predict but if they get some momentum, they can really battle to take the series which would be great news for their mid laner.
-Vizcsacsi (DK $5,800, AD $7,100) – If you want a safe play on the UOL side, Exileh definitely presents a higher floor. Vizi is a much more risky play but as we have seen more and more top lane carry performances, it’s time to start adjusting our view on star top laners and Vizicsacsi is certainly that. He has more kills and assists in the same number of games as Forg1ven and he has proven he can play that playmaking style that screams fantasy value. It’s probably not wise to stack both of the UOL solo laners in your lineup but they present strong flex options on a slate where you really have to take some action on the UOL side of things.
Immortals (-330) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (+257)
If you had asked many people a few weeks ago who would take this matchup, you would find people calling for an IMT sweep in a landslide. But after the disappointing semifinals loss against C9, some may be more hesitant to say the same. That being said Counter Logic Gaming didn’t have much to write home about after their loss to TSM but after all it is TSM. For fantasy purposes we can at least look forward to this being a great game to watch and there should be value across the board on the Immortals side who I expect to win the series in a somewhat convincing fashion. You can never count out the pesky Counter Logic Gaming team but they appear to be overmatched in almost every facet of the game. There isn’t really a player I dislike for Immortals but I will be most likely to pass up on Poebelter simply because of the priority I put on Reignover and Huni in this series. Don’t sleep on the CLG bottom lane but in the end Immortals should be able to come out of this one with a victory and I don’t anticipate this series going the distance.
Immortals
Elite Plays
-Reignover (DK $6,600, AD $7,700) – The dynamic duo of Reignover and Huni met their match yet again in the semifinals, this time at the hands of Cloud 9. The resurgent Impact was able to outsmart the two of them and it lead to a few poor performances for both players but do CLG have the tools to do the same thing? I don’t see how they could. Between the over-aggression of Darshan and the overall incompetence of Huni, Reignover should have a number of opportunities to get himself and his laners ahead. It’s something he has consistently done during the regular season and the numbers speak for themselves with 380 total assists during the regular season. That’s 51 more assists than the next best jungler and it was a higher total than all but 3 supports in the region. The bottomline is that this guy is going to be a stud this week and he should rack up assists left and right. He’s my number one target for this slate among all players. The gap between Reignover and the next best option is just too wide to justify going with any other play.
-WildTurtle (DK $7,600, AD $8,200) – There is no higher ceiling play on this slate than WildTurtle. Though I am a bit worried about the lane matchup against Aphromoo, I still think WildTurtle will be back to his mid/late game antics where he racks up kill after kill and ends up with an impressive final scoreline. Even in a losing effort against C9, Turtle still had a couple of very strong performances and his final numbers were decent enough to give me confidence going into this week. The volume generated by Immortals is usually enough to make WildTurtle a reliable option and I favor him pretty heavily over any ADC on this slate.
Secondary Plays
-Huni (DK $6,800, AD $7,600) – Will Huni tilt and frustrate himself to oblivion in yet another big playoff game? It’s possible but I don’t see Darshan being able to deal with him over the course of a long series and this may end up looking like a Huni revenge tour more than anything. I’m buying into the latter scenario and if I can find a way to do it, I want to get Huni on my roster despite the other enticing options on this Immortals team. After a painful to watch series from Huni against C9, it’s easy to forget just how good he was during the regular season. He lead the league in total kills among top laners and he even finished with more kills than Bjergsen during the regular season. CLG may be able to put up some resistance in this series but I don’t see that coming from the solo lanes.
Counter Logic Gaming
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Stixxay (DK $6,500, AD $7,500) – The bottom lane for CLG may be their best chance at winning this series or at the very least, making it close. The duo of Aphromoo and Stixxay is still a formidable one and last week Immortals showed that they are far from that being bested by Sneaky and Smoothie over the course of the series. I’m throwing out the stats against TSM and hoping that CLG will do so as well. They still have a chance to make worlds and Stixxay has shown on even the international level that he does not crumble under pressure. Of course, having a star support like Aphromoo by his side doesn’t hurt.