League of Legends DFS: EU LCS - Friday
Thursday’s slate was somewhat tainted by a big pricing error on DraftKings with Origen players being as high as 65% in GPPs. Zven did enough to overcome a slow start that he and Splyce’s Sencux were both on most highly placed teams in GPPs. Thankfully, no overwhelming favorites are priced as gifts today, though there are certainly some values to be had.
Heading into Thursday the primary wonder was whether the teams being forced to use substitutes would perform at a high enough level to beat professional competition. Consider the call answered as the two affected teams in H2k and Unicorns of Love both had resounding wins over Vitality and Elements, respectively.
Not all top teams fared well, however. Fnatic struggled from the moment the game began and fell in just 26:51 to G2. Much of the takeaway is that G2’s young players look like stars in the making, but Fnatic’s performances is still a cause for concern. Spirit in particular was a disappointment to say the least, looking to make plays where they weren’t and often dying while stuck in no man’s land. A matchup against up and down Splyce on Friday is an opportunity to right the ship.
Odds & Matchups
Origen (-290) vs. Elements (+229)
Team Vitality (-320) vs. Giants Gaming (+250)
Unicorns of Love (+102) vs. G2 Esports (-124)
Fnatic (-255) vs. Splyce (+204)
H2k Gaming (-290) vs. ROCCAT (+229)
Top
Cabochard, VIT ($7,200) – Giants top laner Atom, as with most Giants players, has not been up to LCS par. He has been unable to find ways to contribute even in team fights and seems to have a knack for finding new ways to die. While we can’t project Cabochard to farm Atom like a Solo Queue lane opponent, but Atom’s weak presence should free Cabochard to do as he pleases. Cabochard’s KP of 75.7% is extremely high for a top laner. He also leads tops with a 60% participation in First Bloods, suggesting early involvement in team fights. Cabo also leads all tops in damage share by over 2%.
Vizicsacsi, UOL ($5,900) – This Unicorns of Love against G2 game is one of the most interesting thus far this season for me. There’s extremely high kill potential here as the #1 and #2 teams in total kills meet for the first time this season. Any and all players will be in play here, but selecting who in particular may be the best one offs is a tougher task. Vizicsacsi is perhaps my favorite top on the slate given his price and typical involvement. A current KP of 57.8% should still rise, particularly with his fairly significant damage share. His @10 numbers are very good, while Kikis’ are very much not good. Top lanes don’t typically swing games, but could here if Vizicsacsi snowballs a lead off of Kikis.
Jungle
Shook, VIT ($6,500) – As we learned on Thursday, H2k is a cut above even without Ryu. That’s not knock on Shook though, who has been the most active jungler so far this season. Strangely, his damage share is the lowest of all junglers by a significant margin despite his Kill Participation being the highest in Europe. I generally favor damage share as one of the most important things to look at, but a nearly 90% KP is impossible to not want a piece of. There’s no reason that Vitality won’t approach a dozen or more kills against the worst team in the league. Quick math seems to suggest Shook is a lock.
Trick, G2 ($5,700) – Everyone’s favorite rookie has a season line of 10/7/41. Trick is second in assists to sprattel’s 44 and quite strong across the board statistically. If it’s Vizicsacsi who could swing this game in the top lane, it’s Trick out of the jungle. Yet to not hit double digits this season, Trick has been safe all season.
Mid
PowerOfEvil, OG ($7,900) – POE had his best game of the season against ROCCAT and may be using the weaker teams in the league to finally find his place within Origen. Elements were completely played off the Rift by Unicorns of Love and, to me, look poised to crash down the standings. Elements have the worst early game Gold Differential in the league, even with having a 3-2 record. They may be stuck at three wins for a while. POE and co. are going to smash them.
SELFIE, H2k ($7,900) – The performance wasn’t anything to write home about, but SELFIE fit in well enough that he can be used safely against ROCCAT. Prices are closely aligned in the mid lane, so we aren’t getting him at a discount, yet he remains an excellent option if only because his teammates showed they are simply too good for the lower tier competition even with Ryu out. That leaves SELFIE likely to accrue fantasy points just by being in the vicinity of fantasy beast FORG1VEN.
ADC
FORG1VEN, H2k ($8,400) – Somehow not the highest priced damage dealer, FORG1VEN is absolutely dominating the European LCS this season. His season line is so absurd that what he has been doing to opponents is borderline NSFW. He’s playing at a level higher than his competition and is the Antonio Brown of League of Legends right now. Lack of team fights did limit him on Thursday, but such is life in the current meta of our game.
Hjarnan, VIT ($8,600) – While Hjarnan has not been nearly as consistent as FORG1VEN, he also hasn’t yet shown us his upside. Yet to go above 30 DraftKings points this season, Hjarnan’s chances of doing so against Giants will be his best chance yet. Adryh of Giants has been the worst ADC in the league in my eyes and Hjarnan will have a lead inside five minutes.
Team
The favorite: Team Vitality ($5,100) – At only $100 more than H2k, I prefer Vitality. ROCCAT’s chances of defeating a Ryu-less H2k are certainly higher than Giants chances of beating, well, anyone.
The upset: Splyce ($3,200) – Fnatic has been sloppy so far this season and while they’ll probably recover, most major improvements happen after adjustments can be made during the week. Given the immense upside of the extremely high priced ADC’s today, even a Splyce loss may not hurt rosters that have the right pricey damage dealers.