League of Legends LCS Finals
We’re back one last time for this LCS season for the EU and NA finals featuring some of the regions best talent. This should be the most exciting League that we’ve had the pleasure of watching in some time and will serve as a great primer ahead of the World Championships later this year. This article will break down each of Sunday’s two final best of fives and covers both DraftKings and AlphaDraft.
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G2 Esports (-299) vs. Splyce (+235)
Over in Europe, the two best teams from the regular season have each reached the EU LCS finals and are set for one last battle for the ages. The only issue is that it may end up not being much of a battle. G2 were 3-1 against Splyce during the regular season and never took a loss in any of their best of twos. Splyce’s surge has been one of the most surprising that I’ve ever seen in professional League of Legends and is reminiscent of Origen from last year. Splyce’s complete turnaround has taken them from being a team who were simply staving off relegation earlier this year to now being G2’s only real competition in Europe. Coach Yamato Cannon deserves immense credit, as do players like Wunder and Trashy in particular, who have improved more than anyone could have imagined in recent months.
Unfortunately for Splyce, they remain outmatched. Lane by lane, G2 features the stronger player across the map. Wunder is comparable to Expect right now and was incredible during the semifinals, but that’s not going to be enough. The G2 bottom lane duo of Zven and Mithy, who came over from Origen after the Spring Split, are simply in another class compared to Splyce’s duo in Kobbe and Mikyx. That isn’t to say that these games will be runaways and I do expect Splyce to find a way to steal a game here, so don’t sleep on them entirely in fantasy. Nonetheless, G2 can be considered expected winners and are nearly always a fantasy friendly team. Do remember that this is not the Splyce of old. They can and will make G2 earn this win and are willing to go down swinging, which presents much higher upside than the Splyce of only a few months ago could ever have provided.
Game Targets
Zven (DK $7,600, AD $8,200) – All season long, Zven has been the most dominant carry on his team and in the European LCS. I expect him to outscore Perkz over the course of the five game series and he’s my go to damage dealer on G2.
Trick (DK $6,600, AD $7,900) – Coming at $6,600 on DraftKings, the EU LCS MVP is cheaper than TSM’s Svenskeren and is a near must play. Don’t build a cash game lineup that doesn’t have Trick in it.
Wunder (DK $5,700, AD $7,200) – This is less a cash game play and more of an upside tournament play. If, and it’s quite an if, Splyce can take this series to five games or even win it all, Wunder will be the biggest reason. He’s going to have to find a way to pull off some incredible play in the top lane to make it happen, but he’s shown he is capable of just that in recent weeks.
Team SoloMid (-365) vs. Cloud9 (+281)
If you’ve been watching any League this year, you’ve heard anyone and everyone talk about how strong TSM is this Split. After a surprise push to the finals last season and the addition of Biofrost for this one, TSM have transformed into their best form ever, including past years. TSM’s only blemish was a bizarre loss to Phoenix1 and other than that series, they were nearly flawless. They regularly tore the league’s second tier teams to shreds and that includes Sunday’s opponent Cloud9. Of course, as I write this CLG currently holds a lead over Immortals, who were expected to win that series. Perhaps they will in the end and I’ll finish writing this before I find out, but it serves as a reminder that anything really can happen in the playoffs.
To clarify that further, upsets are do differ from traditional sports in League of Legends. Most of you are already familiar with the variables that lead to upsets in traditional sports and most of them can be applied here as well. However, the frequent changes to LoL provide a different dynamic than in say baseball, where the rules have changed less in a century than League’s have in the past six months alone. An ever changing scene means opportunity for surprises. I don’t think the recent lane changes will be a huge factor in this series, which is more likely to come down to late game team fights, but it’s also possible that observing the Korean and Chinese playoffs will give these teams ideas that they may not have had before. The point is, the sheer number of factors alone are what allow weaker teams to win. And yes, Cloud9 is the weaker team here by a significant margin. I simply don’t rate their chances particularly high. A single win would be a fair result, but C9 will need more than a few won team fights to beat this juggernaut. Look for C9 to be highly aggressive, hoping the likes of Jensen can show that he’s Bjergsen’s equal, rather than his slightly less skilled Danish compatriot.
Game Targets
Bjergsen (DK $7,800, AD $8,000) – Less expensive than Perkz on AlphaDraft and equally elite on DraftKings even as the highest priced mid laner. Regardless of the tough matchup with Jensen, Bjerg will be relied upon by TSM to carry major offensive weight throughout this possibly high scoring series.
Biofrost (DK $6,100, AD $7,400) – I’m placing Biofrost here primarily to recommend paying up at support on this slate. Following around the dymanic duo of Bjergsen and Doublelift is too good to pass on here.
Meteos (DK $4,900, AD $7,000) – Meteos comes at a significant discount on both sites. Regardless of result, we can expect Cloud9 to score a passable amount of fantasy points for Meteos to surpass his tag. He’s no Trick or Reignover, but he’s simply underpriced and should provide the value needed to reach multiple carries.