League of Legends - MSI Semifinals
Whoa. That’s the best one word sum of the Mid-Season Invitational group stage that I can think of. Unexpected results transformed into the standard at MSI and we should approach the second week of the tournament with that in mind. Now, these are each going to be best of five matches, which greatly reduces the variance that can be experienced in single games, so we have to balance that with the idea that anything can happen at MSI. G2 Esports and IWC representative SuperMassive have been eliminated, leaving us with two tossup semifinals, which we’ll dig into and figure out how we’re building lineups for this slate.
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SK Telecom T1 (-197) vs. Royal Never Give Up (+160)
It’s no secret that every last analyst, pundit and fan had this SKT team as their predicted winner of the tournament in Shanghai. Many believed the team’s turnaround in LCK was a sign that they would surely dominate on the international stage as well. A 10-0 group stage clean sweep was inevitable. Instead, Korea’s champion saw an unprecedented four game losing streak toss a Wukong wrench into all of that. SKT failed to get on the same page in several of their games, often falling victim to their opposition having superior shot calling and playmaking.
Royal had no problem with either of those things. China’s hope put on an incredible display of team playmaking that is rarely seen. Mata and mlxg were my top players of the group stage(along with another guy we’ll surely get to below). RNG are the team at MSI that G2 was supposed to be. Multiple players are making perfectly executed plays across the map, and doing it often. wuxx, xiaohu and mlxg are all in the top five in kills for the tournament, trailing only Stixxay. As is customary in Chinese league play, RNG loves to fight. They are liable to fight at any moment throughout a game, and surprisingly still lead MSI with a 39:30 average game time. Short of a SKT 3-0 route, RNG players will be reaching value in almost any outcome.
The biggest question for this series is whether the few days off between the end of the group stage and this best of five will be enough time for SKT to right the ship. And even if they do, I’m not sold it will be enough against a suddenly consistent Royal team. SKT’s coach kkOma was quoted saying that bengi could play, so we’re forced to view either SKT jungler as a very risky tournament option. I do think Blank will start and finish, but if things go poorly again, a sub is a a risk we can’t take in cash games. Ultimately, SKT just isn’t the team we expected at MSI and I have to stick with RNG as my favorite.
Players to Target
mlxg (DK $4,900, AD $7,700) – In most scenarios, I’d have to separate DraftKings and AlphaDraft here. mlxg is extremely cheap on the former, and the highest priced jungler on the latter. He remains the strongest play on both. The pricing disparity isn’t high enough on AD to take me off of mlxg, even as the top priced jungler.
Mata (DK $4,300, AD $7,300) – This is slightly more favorable on DK, even if you aren’t in need of further salary relief. On AD, it’s close, but the support spot may be where you’ll have to consider going cheaper. Still, Mata’s upside is immense and goodness is he fun to watch, even if that’s not fantasy relevant.
Bang (DK $7,900, AD $7,400) – SKT exposure is a must in cash games, regardless of your feelings on how they’ve performed so far in the tournament. Many will prefer that exposure to be Faker, but I’m not wavering from preferring the ADC as my primary play, no matter how good Faker is at League of Legends.
Counter Logic Gaming (-117) vs. Flash Wolves (-103)
North America’s team is a favorite in the semifinals at a major Riot event. This is MSI. A 7-3 record in the group stage was no fluke from this CLG team, who along with RNG, were the only teams to beat every other team at the tournament last week. Rarely do you see a team move from being seen as a plucky underdog, to the favorite, in such a short span of time. CLG have done just that, and I continue to believe in their success so far at MSI. They are a better team than Flash Wolves, and it will show over the course of a five game series. Stixxay has been a revelation not just during the tournament, but over the past month. While it’s unrealistic to place him at the top of the world-wide list of ADCs just yet, he’s proven he is the best player for what CLG wants to do. All five players have bought into their coaches plans and they execute them flawlessly, masking individual mistakes with very strong shot calling and underrated team fight ability.
Flash Wolves will be no slouch of an opponent, of course. Mid laner Maple will be the best player on the Rift, and facing off against CLG’s weakest player in HuHi. We should except HuHi to be extremely conservative when possible against Maple. I’d be surprised if Maple did not lead all early game statistical categories in this series, even if CLG wins. FW have had their weak spot as well though, and not in an ideal place. ADC NL has been very poor in the early game, while American duo Stixxay and Aphormoo have been strong. NL is your contrarian play if you’re looking for one, because everyone(and me) will be on Stixxay. He must improve, but an NL uptick is what swings this series in FW’s direction. If Stixxay and Aphro aren’t gaining advantages, the “Feed the Stixxay,” strategy is going to have a tougher time getting off the ground.
Players to Target
Stixxay (DK $7,500, AD $7,800) – At a comparable price on both sites, he’ll be highly owned and understandably so. Stixxay leads MSI with 73 kills, while second place has just 52. CLG is extremely dedicated to their man and Flash Wolves don’t have the talent to prevent him from having big games throughout a full series.
Xmithie (DK $6,500, AD $7,400) – I think most will gravitate to Darshan as their second CLG player, and while that’s fine, I think Xmithie is a bit of an under the radar play. He’s had an exceptional tournament, and like Stixxay, has seen major improvement in recent weeks. FW’s jungler Karsa hasn’t been the star we expected at MSI, and I think the jungler edge goes to CLG. The one down side here is that Xmithie may be tasked with babysitting HuHi in the early game, but it’s only a slight downgrade.
Maple (DK $6,400, AD $7,500) – While it’s easy to simply pinpoint the mid lane matchup against HuHi, Maple’s ability reaches far beyond that. Clearly, he’s better at the game than HuHi, but he’s in another class altogether. Maple leads the tournament in damage share at at over 32%, despite a gold share that’s 2% lower than teammate NL’s. It’s entirely possible that one of the things FW will do to try to change their style is to reduce NL’s gold, and funnel it to Maple. Even more gold for a guy already leading the tournament in damage share? He could see his DPM rise to the top as well, if that were the case. Regardless, he is your surefire Flash Wolves exposure in all formats.
That’s it and good luck! Be sure to watch our semifinal preview show prior to lock!