Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 2

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-09-13 20:27:29

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Bowling Green @ Maryland

Bowling Green started off the 2015 season by hanging 30 points on a Tennessee defense that I thought was going to be pretty good. Matt Johnson returned from injury last year and didn’t miss a beat in the first game. He was forced to throw 49 times due to game flow and he turned it into a 424 yards and two touchdowns. Against Maryland I don’t think the tempo is as fast, and Maryland shouldn’t be able to score that many points against the Bowling Green defense, so to expect those types of numbers might be a little bit ambitious . When Johnson did drop back and throw the ball Saturday, he did just as we suspected he might do – find a plethora of solid receivers to throw to. Gehrig Dieter led the way with seven receptions followed by Ronnie Moore’s five, with Burbrink and Roger Lewis bringing up the rear. On any given weekend, these stats are interchangeable amongst these four receivers. Perhaps Tennessee devoted there better corner to Roger Lewis in this game thus holding him in containment. If I was going to pick one guy out of these WRs for this week, I think I choose Lewis. Running back is a bit of a mess for Bowling Green. Travis Greene left the game early on Saturday and was replaced by Fred Coppet. Coppet is a fair running back, but the problem with Bowling Green is their defense and lack thereof. It gets the offense into shootouts and eliminates the running game.

Maryland has a lofty team total projected at 38 points by Las Vegas. Where those points come from is going to be difficult to assess. Perry Hillis didn’t look very good in his first game and that was against the Richmond Spiders. He only threw 21 times, which is understandable with the lack of competition, but he was totally inept when he did throw; 138 yards and two touchdowns does not a good fantasy quarterback make. That leads to the next conundrum: what to do with the Maryland wide receivers in a game projected to be this high scoring. My guess going into the first game was that Levern Jacobs was going to be the man. Nobody in his offense caught more than two passes. Jacobs scored his touchdown on a 23-yard shovel pass that required no skill from the quarterback. Outside of Jacobs, there are no other wide receivers in for the Terps that I want to pin my hopes on. I’m sure I’ll have some exposure to Hillis and Jacobs, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Brandon Ross was the bell cow in the backfield against Richmond. He ran the ball 18 times, averaged 8.3 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. If there’s one person in this offense that I have a bit of confidence in going into this game, it’s Ross and his potential for grabbing 25 carries and multiple touchdowns.

Hawaii @ Ohio State

The Hawaii/Ohio State football game makes the cut for this week’s article mainly because Ohio State is projected to score around 50 points, thus pushing up the total in the game to 60. Make no mistake about it; with only a team total projection of around 10, I’m avoiding Hawaii in this game. They looked pretty good against Colorado in a win, and Max Wittek stepped up with three touchdowns, but they’re just not recommended plays on this slate.

Ohio State is in a tricky fantasy spot this weekend. Clearly a lofty 50 point team total calls for some exposure in your contest. However, the 40 point spread means that there’s an opportunity for the starters to be on the bench by halftime. With the depth Ohio State possesses on offense, I can safely say that they have a solid opportunity at nine offensive touchdowns. How will that break down to individuals? There’s really no need for Ohio State to pass in this game, so Cardale Jones is a very questionable play. I think a very sneaky play would be JT Barrett, who’s going to get plenty of mop-up duty in this game and is capable of two rushing touchdowns in the second half alone. Running back Ezekiel Elliott should slice and dice through the defense for as long as he is in this game. The problem is I don’t project him to be in his game after half time, so we may have to live with 10 first half carries for two or three touchdowns. It’s always a tricky proposition to look for backup players for production in blowouts, and I don’t think Ohio State is any different. Based on the passing volume in this game for Ohio State, I would not be recommending any receivers. There is some value to this offense on Saturday; it’s just a matter of taking a risk to find it.

Houston @ Louisville

It’s really difficult to get any kind of read on a team based on a week one matchup against an opponent like Tennessee Tech. So, I take the Houston statistics with a grain of salt, and even their usage is going to be skewed based on the opponent. What we do know about Houston is that their quarterback can run the ball. Greg Ward looks to run the ball first when the pocket even remotely breaks down. That’s not a terrible thing in college fantasy football. His passing is a work in progress and he has some new faces in his wide receiver corps. Gone is leading receiver Deontay Greenberry and in are some names that are very unfamiliar. DeMarcus Ayers led the team in receiving in week one, and based on his history I think he will be the number one guy moving forward. However, what interests me about Houston is the running game. I think coming into the opener, the expectations were for Kenneth Farrow to finally dominate the carries over Ryan Jackson. Like I said, games against Tennessee Tech are hard to decipher, but Farrow only received 11 carries and Ryan Jackson seven carries. I do think in a hard-nosed football game against a tough defense like Louisville, Farrow will get the lion’s share of work this week. But Ryan Jackson is a very quick twitch athlete that can bang home runs. This is going to be a good test for this offense early against a solid Louisville defense.

While one team had a week one matchup against Tennessee Tech, the other team truly tested themselves by traveling to Auburn for their first game. In this case, we can see a lot of things by looking back at this contest. For starters, no quarterback here is trustworthy, unless they tell me Lamar Jackson is going to get to start and the majority of the snaps over Reggie Bonnafon. Jackson wasn’t a very good passer in the opener, but he took 16 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, and for a quarterback that is gold. Regardless of who starting at quarterback, neither one of them is it accomplished passer, and in addition to that, their leading receiver James Quick sounds like he’s going to miss this week’s game. I think this entire passing game is totally off limits unless you’re starting Lamar Jackson in hopes that he can duplicate his rushing performance. Where things get a lot clearer is the running back situation. Brandon Radcliff came into the year as one of the favorite sleepers of RotoGrinders experts, and he didn’t disappoint. He took 17 carries for 76 yards and two touchdowns against a very stout SEC defense. I would expect those carriers to creep up even more against Houston and the numbers in general to take an upward trend against the weaker run defense. Radcliff is a top five running back this week.

Kentucky @ South Carolina

Kentucky is on the road to take on South Carolina this week in a showdown between two SEC teams. I don’t think most people associate the SEC with good offense and poor defense, but this game has a projected Vegas total of 55. Kentucky is pretty simple to figure out; they have a solid quarterback in Patrick Towels. He threw for 257 yards last week, which is not bad, but I don’t roster Towels for his passing. I want him to run the ball and last week he ran for -16 yards. I don’t know if that’s a sign of things to come, and I’ll give him another opportunity this week, but he needs to bring it. Last season Kentucky spread the ball around to all receivers, with nobody exceeding 45 catches. In week one, Kentucky spread the ball around to seven different receivers, with only Garrett Johnson getting more than three catches. Johnson makes for a decent large field tournament play just in case this game turns into a total shootout, but otherwise it’s probably a situation to avoid. The Kentucky running game looked very solid last week. I think we’re going to see more out of Stanley “Boom” Williams this week after he averaged 13.5 yards per carry on his 10 carries. Jojo Kemp comes in as a change of pace and can grab some receptions, but Boom Williams is the play in the backfield.

South Carolina has struggled in recent history under Steve Spurrier trying to find an offensive identity. I think most of that is due to poor quarterback play, and this year doesn’t look to be much different. Connor Mitch started the game in week one against North Carolina and only connected on 9-of-22 attempts for 122 yards. He’s going to have to rush for over 100 yards to make him a fantasy viable play, and I’m not sure he can get that done. The major problem with the poor quarterback play is that it is a devastating blow to one of the best fantasy players in the nation, Pharoh Cooper. Cooper was a big time fantasy asset last year down the stretch but could only muster three receptions for 45 yards in week one due to the QB play. I still put him as a top 20 receiver this weekend just based on sheer talent, but I’m tempering my expectations until Connor Mitch learns to get him the ball. In the backfield there were no surprises in the first game. Brandon Wilds led the team in carries and I think that holds up as long as he stays healthy. If Mitch continues to struggle this week at quarterback, I would expect Spurrier to lean a little more on the rushing game and maybe Wilds can creep up to 20 carries and make for a solid play against this Kentucky defense.

Oklahoma @ Tennessee

I think this has the makings of being the best game of the weekend. Oklahoma named Baker Mayfield the starting quarterback late in the summer, and he didn’t disappoint in his debut. Granted it was against Akron, but he did throw for 388 yards and three touchdowns, while still running for another touchdown. He’s going to make for a solid play most weeks this year. You’re just going to have to try and avoid those handful of games where it’s all about the rushing attack. I sense Oklahoma going more towards a wide receiver by committee approach in 2015. Sterling Shepard was the man last year and it wasn’t even close. This year, however, I think he has competition. There was already talk about his workload decreasing and then in week one junior college transfer Dede Westbrook went out and had a nice showing. Add in the Durron Neal and the running backs coming out of the backfield to catch passes (Joe Mixon 76 yard TD reception), and this WR bunch for the Sooners is going to be tricky to figure out from week to week . We all know the Samaje Perine is one of the better backs in the nation. However, Oklahoma will abandon the run too soon far too often. I’m going to be very leery of that in this game because I think Tennessee can put up points and “trick” Oklahoma into throwing the ball.

Talk about getting burned; you spend all that money on Joshua Dobbs and then sit back and watch the running backs rush for 270 yards and five touchdowns. That is the epitome of a tilt. I’m not giving up hope already though, as I think Dobbs eventually rises to the top and shows why he’s such a dominant fantasy quarterback. I wouldn’t doubt that it happens in this game against Oklahoma. I think his 12 carries last week are right in line with what we’re going to see this year from Dobbs. He turned those 12 carries into 89 yards in a touchdown. Those are basically running back numbers. He’s always going to struggle through the air because he’s not a dominant passer and doesn’t have a very good receiving corps. As for that receiving corps, there’s absolutely nobody in a Tennessee jersey that I want a roster and handcuff to Joshua Dobbs. I think in general no one stands out above any of the others, and when you factor in Dobbs not being a solid passer, it’s just going to lead to a lot of disappointment if you try to pick out the right Tennessee receiver each game. Alvin Kamara stepped up this week with a huge game of 144 yards and two touchdowns. I still think Jalen Hurd is the number one guy in this offense by a wide margin, but this will make you stop and think. I need to see another game from Kamara to know if he’s for real and therefore I would go back to the Jalen Hurd well this week again

Oregon @ Michigan State

Oregon travels to Michigan State this weekend, and this is what makes college football so great. Not only do we have a game that is incredibly fantasy relevant with a 68 point total, but we also have basically a- win and stay alive or lose and dig a huge hole- game for playoff implications. Oregon is once again one of the premier offenses in the league. They play at an incredibly high pace and this year they’re led by Vernon Adams. Adams left the game in the fourth quarter last week with a head injury but he says he will play this week. I think he makes for a solid play in this game, as I think the offense will need to lean on the passing a little bit more . Just like most years with this offense you really can’t pin your hopes on one wide receiver being the dominant force. He’s going to spread the ball out to Byron Marshall, Bralon Addison, Dwayne Stanford and the running backs. Which one steps up for the big game this week is anybody’s guess. You could kind of get the idea that Royce Freeman was going to have a big year, and he didn’t disappoint against Eastern Washington. He took 21 carries and turned it into 180 yards and three touchdowns. And while I still like Royce Freeman in general, I’m not getting carried away against a very stout Michigan State run defense, which ranked #1 overall in all of FBS last season.

Michigan State is going to have lots of opportunities to score in this football game. Both based on the pace of the game and the Oregon defense, which looked below standard last week. Michigan State is led by their quarterback Connor Cook, who by all accounts should be a top 10 pick in next year’s draft. However, just being a talented quarterback doesn’t guarantee big fantasy points. It’s all about the system. This system isn’t conducive to big fantasy games very often. However, this is going to be one of those games where I think you can comfortably plug in Connor Cook and enjoy the 300 yard bonus and multiple touchdowns. If you’re looking for a decent tight end on FanDuel, I think you could do much worse than Josiah Price. He caught three passes for 49 yards and a touchdown last week and this is coming off of a season where he scored six TD’s, including one vs. Oregon. I’ve been watching Aaron Burbridge for a few years now at Michigan State waiting for his talent to break out. I don’t know if this is the year, but he certainly had a nice game last week against Western Michigan with 117 yards receiving. He’s as good of a player as anybody right now to take control of that number one wide receiver spot vacated by Tony Lippett, who is in the NFL now. We also know that Michigan State will run the ball as much as they can. Jeremy Langford is gone and that opened up a spot for a bell cow running back in this offense. Madre London got the start but ended up splitting carries right down the middle with LJ Scott. My guess is that when all is said and done, Madre London is the guy they are going to lean on more than Scott, and therefore I’d be looking to play him over Scott in this game.

Washington State @ Rutgers

Washington State travels to Rutgers in a Saturday afternoon game that has a 62 total with a very tight two-point spread. For Washington State we’ve grown accustomed to everything revolving around the passing game. However in week one they went with a much more run heavy approach. They ended up losing that game to an inferior Portland State team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they aired it out on Saturday. Luke Falk left the game on the final drive with a head injury. All signs point to Falk starting this game, but on the chance that he misses, Peyton Bender would be the man. As for his targets, I think the safest play is Gabe Marks. He racked up a stat line of 6/76/1 in the first game. The next guy in line, in my opinion, is Dom Williams. He’s always been a touchdown machine for the Cougars having accumulated 16 total touchdowns over the last two seasons. I favor Williams over Cracraft simply because I’m a tad bit leery of the connection between Falk and Cracraft. Last season, with Connor Halliday as the quarterback, Cracraft was targeted received 12% of the team’s passes. Once Luke Falk took over and Cracraft played those final two games, he only grabbed seven total receptions for 73 yards. I think week one for these running backs was fool’s gold and I’m avoiding them this week.

My guess is that we see some pretty solid offensive output from Rutgers in this game. How they rack up that offense is a little bit tougher to determine. Chris Laviano should receive the start at quarterback for Rutgers on Saturday. He came in after halftime of week one and promptly hit 4-of-4 attempts for 138 yards and three touchdowns. Most of that damage was done by Leonte Carroo, who hauled in three catches for 129 yards with all three going for touchdowns. Now I know Carroo is a big time prospect at wide receiver, but this game was against Norfolk State. Leonte Carroo did lead this team last year with 55 receptions on 89 targets and he is going to be the number one wide receiver on this team this year also. After him at wide receiver, there is nobody I want to touch. The running game for Rutgers is intriguing. I think they’re going to find some holes and be able to run the ball against Washington State. Paul James is the most talented running back on the roster, but he is returning from a devastating knee injury last year. In week one he got 15 carries and turned it into 82 yards. Josh Hicks led the way with 18 carries for 118 yards and two touchdowns. My guess is we see more split carries in this game but maybe a few extra for James. I think either one of these guys makes for a solid flyer in tournament play as Rutgers tries to grind out the clock on an air raid offense.