Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 4

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-09-27 21:12:13

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

TCU @ Texas Tech

TCU travels to Texas Tech in what should be the game of the day. TCU is sitting on the team total around 43 at this point, and they appear to be the number one fantasy option on the slate. The first guy you’re going to turn to in this game is Trevone Boykin, the TCU quarterback. He’s accounted for over 63% of the TCU offense this year. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns and has run two more in thus far. Mind you, none of this is a fluke as he did this exact same thing for the entire season in 2014. When he drops back to pass, his number one target is going to be Josh Doctson. He’s accounted for 326 yards receiving to go along with his three touchdowns. Looking further into the receiving corps, Kolby Listenbee stands out as a very fine GPP play this week. He has 14 targets on the year and a completion percentage of over 71% when thrown in his direction, which is better than Doctson. Listenbee is a burner who also has two touchdowns on the year and over 22 yards per reception. In college we’ve seen plenty of times when a quarterback and running back can not only coincide on the same roster but actually prosper and win big tournaments. I think this could be the case on Saturday with Aaron Green. He just puts up phenomenal stats regardless of the game flow, and teaming him with Boykin is a solid option. He has four rushing touchdowns this year to go along with 272 rushing yards, and we haven’t seen him explode in the passing game just yet, but that could be coming this week.

While everyone loves TCU this week on the road, it’s Texas Tech at home with a 36-point team total that’s very intriguing. They are 3-0 and just handed it to a very tough Arkansas team on the road. I think there’s a lot of potential in this offense this week. They’re lead by quarterback Pat Mahomes and he’s been playing phenomenal football so far. He has nine passing touchdowns to go along with four rushing touchdowns and seems to be a serious dual threat. When he passes, it gets a little bit tricky as to which guy you want to roster. Jakeem Grant leads the team with 21 receptions on 24 targets and he’s more of the PPR monster. Devin Lauderdale is the guy I prefer on FanDuel because he’s more of a home run hitter with his three touchdowns and nearly 20 yards per reception. Reginald Davis is kind of squeezed in between both of them with 10 receptions and three touchdowns himself. Also there is Ian Sadler, who checks in with 18 targets and two touchdowns, so there’s plenty of options to choose from in this wide receiving set. The only running back you need to worry about for Texas Tech is DeAndre Washington. He’s received the bulk of the carries this year and has 287 yards to show for it. As always he’s a risky play because this is a pass first offense, but it makes sense in a large field tournament to take a chance on a guy who has big upside.

Bowling Green @ Purdue

Bowling Green, fresh off of a shootout loss to Memphis, travels to take on Purdue Saturday in a game in which the Vegas total is around 80 points once again. They didn’t disappoint last week and their offense is so high powered that they need to be taken into consideration every game. They’re led by quarterback Matt Johnson, who’s ripped off 12 touchdowns this year to only one interception and has already thrown for over 1,300 yards. He’s also run in a touchdown in the end zone. Purdue has a poor defensive pass rating of over 127 and they will be hard-pressed to stop this Bowling Green aerial attack. There’s no doubt about it that Roger Lewis is the number one option in this receiving corps. So far this year he has 24 receptions, 510 yards and five touchdowns. He absolutely diced up Memphis last week, and although I wouldn’t expect another game of that magnitude, he is still very much one of the leading receivers on Saturday. If somehow they defend Lewis, Purdue is going to leave space in the secondary for a guy like Ronnie Moore or Ryan Burbrink, either of which are solid large field tournament options. On the ground it’s still a mixed bag between Fred Coppet and Travis Green. In a game like this where I think Bowling Green is going to air it out, I don’t think there’s any need to press your luck and try to find the right running back.

For Purdue it is an interesting game from a fantasy perspective. They’ve got a large team total and they’re at home against a weak defense. But, there’s not one single element of this offense that you would get excited about. It looks like they’re going to make a transition at quarterback and start David Blough. He’s a freshman and has eight pass attempts in his college career. I honestly don’t know how to project him. It’s a dull, boring offense and even though the opponent is weak I’m just not sure you can invest too much into this situation. It would be nice for him to have had a game under his belt so we could see who his favorite target was going to be. At this point it’s all speculation, but the deep threat in this offense is DeAngelo Yancey. Yancey averages almost 19 yards per reception on the year. Outside of that, the possession receiver is probably going to be Danny Anthrop. He leads the team with 11 receptions. At running back it appears that Markell Jones is the most talented guy. However, his 32 carries on the season are third on the team behind DJ Knox and former starting quarterback Austin Appleby. Clearly when you invest in a guy in daily fantasy you want to get the lion’s share of the carries, and I’m not sure that’s the case with Jones. Last game he only got six carries and one reception. Although this team total for Purdue looks fantastic, I’m not sure that it’s worth the headache in cash game just to take a stab at these moving targets.

California @ Washington

Fresh off of an offensive smoking against Texas, California travels to Washington for a Pac 12 showdown. California is led by one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Jared Goff. The overall explosive game hasn’t been there, but he’s been a mark of consistency so far this year. Three games in and he’s exceeded the 300-yard mark twice and has thrown for three touchdowns in each game. Overall Washington’s defense isn’t as good as Texas, in my opinion, so I think Goff has a chance at a big game here. Kenny Lawler is the number one fantasy receiver in this offense for me. They will spread it around, and it does get tricky at times, but Lawler is the touchdown maker. He has 14 catches this year and five of them have been for touchdowns. In a point per reception format, Bryce Treggs would be the next guy to turn to. He hasn’t had a big blowup game this year but eventually that will happen. In the running game it comes down to Daniel Lasco and his injury. He sat out the last game against Texas, but if he comes back this week he makes for a fine play. If he’s out again, maybe you could look to try and take a stab in the dark at who will produce, but I’m not going that route. It’s Lasco or nothing for me.

Normally California is a good defense to target, but this Washington offense is very scary. We haven’t had a good opportunity yet in fantasy to really see what they’re made of due to their competition the first three weeks. At quarterback they’re led by Jake Browning, who has very pedestrian numbers of 844 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions in three games. Their leading receiver technically is Dwayne Washington, but he’s actually a running back. They’ve got a nice possession receiver in Jayden Mickens who has 10 receptions on the year for 112 yards but hasn’t found the end zone. I mentioned Washington as a running back; he has 17 carries this year for only 29 yards with two touchdowns. His carries are doubled up by Miles Gaskin, who’s carried the ball 34 times for three touchdowns with a 5.7 yards per carry average. Gaskin is probably the guy I’d lean on in this offense against California. Although this is a fantastic matchup, I think Washington players are best served in GPPs. They are far too tricky and far too plain of an offense to mess around with in cash games.

Oklahoma State @ Texas

Oklahoma State is the next team in line to take a good shot at that horrible Texas defense. I just mentioned how they got diced up by Jared Goff and the California offense, and now comes Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State Cowboys. Rudolph has some decent numbers this year, totaling 947 passing yards with five touchdowns. I think against this defense he’s in play as a solid, yet unspectacular quarterback option. The receiving corps for the Cowboys has given me headaches this year. Coming into the year, I thought Brandon Shepard was easily the number one target in the passing game. Through three games he only has four receptions, though. Perhaps that turns around but clearly that’s not something you want to mess with for a lot of money this weekend. The leading receiver has actually been David Glidden with 12 receptions 283 yards and three touchdowns. His yards total more than doubles the next closest receiver. I think the big selling point on this offense is going to be the running game. Chris Carson has assumed the number one running back duties for the Cowboys and has 235 yards and three touchdowns to show for it. You cannot discount Rennie Childs and his 5.9 yards per carry, but for me Carson seems like the play in this game for Oklahoma State.

If there’s one thing positive for Texas, it’s that it seems like they least found an explosive quarterback to man this team for the next few years. Jerrod Heard burst onto the scene last week with 364 yards passing, 163 yards rushing and three total touchdowns. Those are phenomenal numbers for a college quarterback. Clearly with that running ability he’s going to make for a solid play every week, and this week against Oklahoma State is no different. The issue in this offense is that first off he’s not a good passer and second off he doesn’t even have weapons. The only guy I might vaguely take a shot at is Daje Johnson, who has 11 catches for 190 yards this year and is a big-play magnet when he gets in space. Otherwis, I don’t think it’s realistic to assume that any of these receivers are going to have a solid game consistently. At running back, Jonathan Gray looks a lot better now but Heard has taken over as the quarterback. He was drifting into obscurity until his two-touchdown performance last week against California. If the defense is going to focus on stopping Heard, it’s going to open up plenty of running lanes for Gray.

Texas A&M @ Arkansas

Texas A&M isn’t a hard team to figure out. Kyle Allen got a bit of a scare early in the year when it looked like Kyler Murray was creeping up on him for that starting quarterback gig. However, it seems like Allen has firmly planted himself in that starter’s spot for the time being. He’s a solid option in a game in which the Aggies team total is over 33. Unlike years past, his receivers seem to be a little more defined this year. Christian Kirk leads the team with 16 catches for 269 yards. He would be the guy I classify as the number one option, having surpassed 100 yards or a touchdown in each of the first three games. He seems like the safest bet. After that, Josh Reynolds is next in line. He has eight receptions and he’s turned them into three touchdowns. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a quarterback and two wide receiver stack in this game for the Aggies. Also, it seems like the running back situation has cleared up this year for A&M. In years past it was a real committee. This year it’s been Tre Carson and his 61 carries for 292 yards and two touchdowns that’s put in the clear-cut number one option in the running game. I think the passing game is the safest option for Texas A&M for fantasy purposes, but I also don’t see an issue with starting Carson this week.

Arkansas has struggled this year, both in real life and in fantasy. They head into this game having gotten beaten last week by Texas Tech and now they take on another high-powered offense. This A&M defense has some talented players, so it’s not as easy to plug the Razorbacks into your fantasy roster this week. Brandon Allen has been very good this year, but I don’t think he’s a guy you can trust week in and week out. His receiving corps is decimated right now. Hunter Henry jumps off to me as the number one tight end option on this slate of games and I think he’s usable on DraftKings as a wide receiver. Outside of him there’s not a guy in this passing game I want to touch. At running back I have no problems with rostering Alex Collins. However the price is still high and the production hasn’t met the price tag yet, so I’m not sure you can reach that level in this game against the talented defense. I think Collins makes for a solid large field play, but I’m not putting him in for cash games.

UCLA @ Arizona

UCLA and Arizona square off on Saturday night in what could be one of those good old-fashioned Pac 12 shootouts. UCLA is led by freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who had a bit of a hiccup this past weekend. I would fully expect for him to bounce back, as he has shown that he can be a very good fantasy quarterback. UCLA is projected at 34 points and I would expect for them to put up plenty of offense in the passing game. When Rosen throws, it is Jordan Payton that has to be considered his number one target. He leads the team with 12 receptions for 183 yards, followed by Thomas Duarte and his eight catches for 108. After those two guys it’s really a crapshoot if you’re digging for a third receiver. Technically the third leading receiver on the team is running back Paul Perkins, and that brings us to the running game. Perkins has been a man on fire these last two weeks and has season totals of 424 yards with three touchdowns. Arizona ranks 28th in the nation, giving up only 3.23 yards per carry, but the competition has been rather weak. I think for a modest price tag Rosen makes for a solid play. Perkins is the headliner, but you have to pay for him.

Arizona is at home for this game, and although UCLA has some solid athleticism on defense, I fully expect the Wildcats to be able to rip off major chunks of yardage in this contest. UCLA’s pass defense ranks top 20 in the nation, however those numbers come against Virginia, BYU and UNLV. Look for Anu Solomon to dice up the secondary. He leads the Wildcats with a 10:0 touchdown to interception ratio. His receivers are a guessing game. Coming into the season I thought Cayleb Jones would be the number one guy. However they have four guys that range between 11 and 14 receptions each. Jones, David Richards, John Jackson, Nate Phillips, and even throw in Samajie Grant with nine receptions. While Solomon makes for a solid play, trying to pinpoint the wide receiver that’s going to have the big game is very difficult. It’s not difficult to figure out that Nick Wilson is the man on the ground, though. He leads the team with 62 carries, which he’s converted to 434 yards and five touchdowns, while the next closest running back only have 17 carries. If the points are flowing like we believe they will, it stands to reason that he will produce something in this game.

USC @ Arizona State

USC is favored on the road by 5.5 points over Arizona State in a game that has a 63 total. Frankly I think USC is quite upset at the loss they suffered to Stanford the previous week. I would fully expect this passing game to come out on Saturday and destroy the Arizona State secondary. Cody Kessler is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, having thrown for 922 yards and 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions. If you can fit him on your roster, he’s a no-brainer. I think he’s an easy 300 yards and 4+ touchdowns. The number one target on this team is JuJu Smith. He leads the Trojans with 22 catches and four touchdowns. If you’re looking to throw darts at wide receiver two and three, look to Steven Mitchell and possibly Darius Rogers or Isaac Whitney as guys to roster. For me a Kessler/Juju stack smells like money. Tre Madden reportedly tweaked his knee in Saturday’s game. He is the lead running back and will probably get the start, but any kind of injury news is scary in a game like this. If he were to miss the game, I’d look for Justin Davis and Ronald Jones to step up at his place. If Madden is fully healthy, he makes for an acceptable play, but I still would lean on the passing game for the Trojans in this one

Arizona State is still looking to find that offensive identity that they’ve had in recent years. They’re led at quarterback by Mike Bercovici. He’s been decent this year but slightly disappointing considering the flashes he showed last year of being a fantasy stud. In the passing game his number one target is DJ Foster, who is a running back turned receiver. Foster has incredible game breaking skill but has a long play from scrimmage this year of only 16 yards. I would fully expect that to change sooner rather than later. Demario Richard is the starting running back for this team and he has dual-threat capabilities out of the backfield, as he averages 22.3 yards per reception this year with two touchdowns to go along with his 56 carries and 298 yards on the ground. The Trojans are coming off of a game in which they gave up 195 yards rushing to Stanford. I would fully expect Arizona State to be able to move the ball in this game.