Jon Gray Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Among the multitude of studs on the mound tonight, Jon Gray could get lost in the shuffle, but he’s been pitching about as well as any of them and has the best matchup on the board. Gray is up to a 26.5 K% on the season and even more impressive 22.5 K-BB% over his last eight starts with just eight barrels allowed (6.4%). He has been smacked around for four home runs and five barrels over his last two starts, but all estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.03 ERA on the season. Facing the A’s (71 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) in Texas, which is a pitcher friendly park with the roof closed, Gray projects as the top value on the board on DraftKings for $7.7K and third best on FanDuel for $1.3K more.

Gray may be the only pitcher not costing more than $9K that players would consider using on a single pitcher site, but Justin Steele has struck out 25 of his last 73 batters, which is his best rolling three game total this season. However, he’s also walked seven of his last 49 and has completed six innings just four times all year. He has a 12.0 K-BB%, but will occasionally spike strikeouts and/or walks. What he does more consistently is generate ground balls (51.1%) and suppress barrels. He’s allowed just six all season (2.7%) and three of them came in one game. That’s probably not sustainable, but still extremely impressive, generating a 3.31 xERA and 3.42 FIP that are his only estimators more than half a run below a 4.13 ERA. Steele is facing the red hot Orioles, who have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.5 K% vs LHP, while tonight is a “wind blowing in” night at Wrigley. At $7.6K, Steele projects as the second best FanDuel value and wouldn’t be a crazy GPP selection. However, he costs $1.6K more on DraftKings.

Should you need a cheaper SP2 arm on DraftKIngs, Aaron Civale is the top point per dollar projection for less than $7K. He produced just his second Quality Start of the season and first of seven innings his last time out in Kansas City (six strikeouts). He’s also up to a 15.3 K-BB%, which generates his first estimator below four this season (3.94 SIERA). The contact profile is still an issue (4.63 xERA), but look for substantial regression in his 6.28 ERA (.346 BABIP, 57.9 LOB%). The White Sox have just an 89 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP, but don’t strike out a lot (20.2%). Civale costs just $5.4K.

Josh Wincowski, Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn all project just above 2.0 P/$ and cost between $6-6.5K. Wincowski’s 6.6 K-BB% through six starts makes him a prime candidate to exit the rotation once they’re a little bit healthier next week. While he is generating 53.5% of his contact on the ground, he’s still allowed eight barrels (7.8%), while all estimators within half a run of his 4.35 ERA. Only a 3.86 xERA dips below four, but the Rays (99 wRC+) strike out 24.8% of the time against RHP and tonight’s lineup, maybe even more than that. Stripling has only completed six innings in two of his 12 starts. His strengths have been great control (5.1 BB%) and an above average ground ball rate (47.6%), but he’s not missing a lot of bats (20 K%) and surrendering too many barrels (9.2%). With only five of his 19 barrels leaving the yard, a 3.08 FIP is his only estimator below a 3.34 ERA, while a 4.16 xERA is his highest with most others a bit less than half a run above actual results. The Phillies (99 wRC+, 22.4 K%) are missing some starters and Toronto plays slightly pitcher friendly in recent seasons. Blackburn is generally a daily fantasy nightmare in that you can’t much with him (19.4 K%, 9.7 SwStr%), but can’t do much against him either (6.1 BB%, 47.8 GB%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE). However, he’s sort of turned all that around over his last four starts (25 K%, 11.5 SwStr%, 38.3 GB%, 13.3% Barrels/BBE). What’s changed in his pitch mix is…not much from his season usage, while velocity has been stable as well. He’s faced the Mariners twice over this span and also the Yankees and Astros. While that certainly explains the increase in production against him, it doesn’t really explain the strikeouts. He’s also in a pitcher friendly park in Texas (assuming a closed roof) with a favorable matchup (Rangers 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP).

Among pitchers costing less than $9K on both sites, PlateIQ projections are clearly pointing us in one place and that’s in Jon Gray’s direction in Oakland tonight. A top two value projection on either site, Gray’s numbers are similar to what they were in Colorado, including a 22.7 K% and league average walk rate (8.4%) with an above average ground ball rate (46.3%). However, his 5.14 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, due to a 62.5 LOB%. You have to love the matchup and conditions in Oakland though. Already a fairly substantial negative run and power suppressing environment, Weather Edge suggests a further boost for pitchers tonight, along with a pitcher friendly umpire, maybe the most pitcher friendly one on the slate even. Then you add in the home team’s 74 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs RHP this year and you can easily see what’s so attractive about the matchup. While FanDuel makes you think a bit for $7.1K with Shane Bieber in Detroit with a comparable matchup not too much more, Gray costs $5.5K on DraftKings tonight.

Jeffrey Springs projects as the third best point per dollar value on either site tonight. He is now a full-fledged starter, throwing 80 pitches and striking out seven of 21 Orioles in his last start. He also issued his first four walks as a starter. What’s not to love? There’s plenty of room to spare from a 27 K% and 15.2 SwStr% with a transition to the rotation that now seems to be complete. He’s mastered the art of contact management so far as well (85.9 mph EV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE). Contact neutral estimators are also barely above three. While he is taking on the Yankees tonight, it is an injury riddled offense in a very pitcher friendly park with Springs costing less than $6.5K on either site.

It’s a bit surprising that this is Carlos Carrasco’s first start against the Phillies (99 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), considering this is their fourth series already. While he’s allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts, the strikeout rate has dropped to 15.4% over his last five starts. The great news is that the velocity has held steady and he retains a 12.8 SwStr% over this span. In fact, his 13.2 SwStr% on the season suggests impending improvement upon his current 20.5 K%. That’s really been the only flaw in a profile that includes a 3.7 BB% and 6.4% Barrels/BBE. Carrasco’s 3.50 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. Citi Field is one of the most negative run environments in baseball and while Carrasco may be accurately priced on DraftKings, he’s $1.2K less on FanDuel.

It’s a fairly strong pitching board at the top tonight, including both reigning Cy Young winners, although one is really struggling to start the season. That’s a good thing too because the rest of the board is fairly risky without anything that stands out, though we can cover a few names. Jon Gray faced just 16 batters in his first start for the Rangers and then missed his second one with a blister. He struck out four, but also walked two with a 12.9 SwStr%. There had been some hype about a new slider and he threw this pitch 24 times, almost exclusively to RHBs with a 53.8 Whiff%. Statcast also suggests less drop and more sweep on the pitch than last year. Perhaps it’s something to watch and the matchup is fine in Seattle, but blister issues can be tricky. We may have to worry about workload, but he currently projects for low ownership.

Max Fried (at Dodgers) and Nathan Eovaldi (vs Blue Jays) are quality pitchers with tough matchups who are barely below the top arms in terms of pricing tonight. However, both have estimators well below their ERAs through two starts. Fried, in particular, has walked just two of 49 batters with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.6%) and an average exit velocity of just 84.8 mph. He’s struck out just nine, but a 12.3 SwStr% is higher than each of the last three years and his velocity is up nearly a full mile per hour. The problem has been a .395 BABIP and 52.9 LOB%. Patrick Sandoval’s first start of the season was delayed a few days, but it didn’t seem to affect him one bit, as he struck out six of 18 Marlins (16.9 SwStr%), building on a 25.9 K% last season. He also did walk three (9.9 BB% last year) and generated just a single ball (11.1%), but no barrels. It’s a tough spot for him too, though, in Houston.

Josh Fleming has struck out 11 of the 30 batters he’s faced this year (18.1 SwStr%). A quick check confirms this is the same Josh Fleming who struck out just 14.5% of batters last year. It’s not a velocity thing, but he seems to be throwing even more sinkers (65.7%) and a new slider (14.3%), while abandoning his cutter last year if Fangraphs is to be believed. Statcast is still classifying a cutter, but with more than double last year’s Whiff% so far. Fleming has also generated 72.2% of his contact on the ground with just one barrel so far. He may be worth a flyer in large GPPs on DK, costing just $6.1K in great pitching weather at Wrigley.

J.T. Brubaker nearly broke out with a 16.9 K-BB% last year, but a stretch of 18 home runs over 10 games over the summer sent his ERA soaring above five before he was shut down in September. He’s only allowed a single barrel and home run through two starts this year, but suddenly forgot how to throw strikes. He’s walked and struck out seven each of the 39 batters he’s faced this year. His F-Strike% and Zone% are the same as last year, but batters are swinging less overall and more often inside the strike zone. He has just a 22.2 O-Swing% so far. The Brewers have just a 79 wRC+ over the last seven days and Brubaker costs just $5.9K on DraftKIngs.

Kyle Gibson followed up a 10 strikeout performance to open the season against the A’s with merely six of 21 Marlins, though he’s exceeded an 18.5 SwStr% in each start. It’s not a velocity or arsenal change, but his sinker whiff rate has more than doubled to 43.8% this year. There doesn’t appear to be anything significantly different about it though, so maybe it’s just the fact that he’s faced two below average offenses, but he’s facing another one tonight, though the Rockies do have a 116 wRC+ vs RHP this year. If you can stomach Coors, Gibson costs $6.6K on DK.

While there’s a lot to work with at the top of the board, which includes 25% of tonight’s pitchers costing at least $9K on both sites, there’s really not much to be encouraged about below that. If you’re looking for a pitcher who can stand alone, you should probably pay the $9K+. Jon Gray has a 31.7 K% over his last five starts, but with just a 35.7 GB%, .463 BABIP and 64.5 LOB%. That particular combination would seem nearly impossible, but he also has a 92.2 mph EV over that span. You would figure his line drive rate would have to be sky high, but it’s just 21.4% over this span. There’s no change in pitch mix or velocity, but something strange is going on, which sort of makes you optimistic, but he’s in a rough spot in a difficult park in Atlanta. However, he is suddenly showing more strikeout upside for less than $8.5K and six of eight projected Atlanta bats have a 22.9 K% or higher vs RHP.

Injuries have derailed Tony Gonsolin’s season. His 16.3 BB% over just 38.2 innings is over four times what it was last year (4.0%). The good news is that his velocity was up last time out, though he struck out just three of 14 Cardinals and he still has a 26.2 K% on the year. You’re probably only getting two trips through the order with him, but the Diamondbacks have a 78 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs RHP and just three batters in their projected lineup have struck out less than 22.4% vs RHP this year. Gonsolin costs less than $8K.

If you want to get really ugly (and ugly with upside potential often wins GPPs), let’s take a look at the matchup in a potentially weather aided (Weather Edge) positive run environment in Washington. The first positive is a pitcher friendly umpire, but in a reversal of fortune, Erick Fedde has a 6.10 ERA over his last four starts with a 3.62 xFIP. He has a 23.2 K-BB% over this span, but a .383 BABIP, 57.7 LOB% and 20 HR/FB with five of his seven barrels (10.8%) leaving the yard. Costing less than $7K on DraftKIngs, Fedde could be facing a Miami lineup where six batters have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP this year. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo has struck out eight in two of his last three starts and has a very impressive 14.6 SwStr% in 39.2 innings for the Marlins. Those are the positives. The 13.1% walk rate would be a negative, generating estimators above five, but you can see some positive signs and he costs just $6.3K on FanDuel. Unfortunately, only two batters in the projected Washington lineup exceed a 19 K% vs LHP, but we’re also dealing with only two sample sizes above 75 PAs this year. Fedde and Luzardo are reasonable SP2 candidates if you want more offense in your lineup.

Jon Gray is a high priced pitching option ($9.8K on DK) with a 4.18 ERA, SIERA and FIP, but he’s getting out of Coors and is in a great spot tonight. Gray has struck out 25.4% of batters this season and 24.5% of batters on the road since last season. While nine of his 13 HRs have come in his nine road starts this year, the Giants have just an 8.2 HR/FB at home this year. Gray’s 89.9 mph aEV and 44.7% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board and his .325 xwOBA on the road since last season doesn’t really absolve him of that, but he’s facing a team with an 80 wRC+ and 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP. This really is all about the spot and lack of much higher upside pitching prospects on this board. Kershaw (23.6 K%) and Greinke (22.4%) aren’t what they’ve been in tougher spots and Gray actually has the second highest strikeout rate on the board with the only pitcher higher (Lucas Giolito 30.9 K%) visiting Fenway. You don’t have to like it, but you probably do need some Jon Gray exposure tonight.