Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 5

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-10-05 14:03:52

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma

West Virginia travels to Oklahoma in a Big 12 shootout on Saturday. This is a fishy line on this game. I would have expected this total to be in the 60s, however it’s caught around the 57 point mark. Both of these teams are in the top 11 in the nation in pace per game and Oklahoma’s pass defense rating is terrible. We all know West Virginia is more or less a fraud on defense when it comes to facing powerhouses, so this game sounds very tricky. For West Virginia, the quarterback is Skyler Howard, who has 916 passing yards with nine touchdowns through the air and an additional 88 yards rushing. We have seen this Oklahoma defense be susceptible to giving up points, so Howard is definitely in play here. When he drops back to pass, he will be looking for Jovon Durante, Shelton Gibson and Dakiel Shorts. I think Durante and Gibson are your two best options, with Durante being the possession receiver at 6.3 targets per game and Sheldon Gibson being more of the touchdown maker with four trips to the end zone so far this year. In addition to those guys, Wendell Smallwood is like a receiver coming out of the backfield. He already has 10 receptions on the year and makes for a decent play against this Oklahoma defense. He’s an exciting running back that helps in the pass game, too.

The last time we saw Baker Mayfield, he was torching Tulsa and winning people tournaments. On the year, he has over 1,000 yards passing to go along with 10 touchdowns, and in addition to that he’s logged 139 yards rushing with four scores. He is a stud. When he drops back to pass, Mayfield’s number one target is Sterling Shepard, who averages 8.3 targets per game. Two other guys that fly under the radar that could have solid weeks are Durron Neal and Dede Westbrook. West Virginia actually boasts a pretty decent cornerback group, so if they choose to try and double Sterling Shepherd, perhaps one of the other two guys will be the one to break out this game. For me, I think this is a good time to roster Samaje Perine. Perine is flying under the radar and hasn’t gotten the attention that he did last year, but West Virginia is middle of the pack in the nation in rush defense and this is despite facing three terrible offensive teams so far this year. If Oklahoma chooses to give Perine some carries, he could have a field day against this defense.

Houston @ Tulsa

Houston takes on Tulsa in a game that has a very fantasy-friendly Vegas spread and total on it. There’s no need to really analyze defenses here, as Vegas is going to tell you that not a whole lot of defense will be played in this one. For Houston, the offense thus far has revolved around Greg Ward, the quarterback. He’s got a fair passing line of 785 yards and eight touchdowns, but his real value lies in the running. He has 45 carries for 290 yards and four touchdowns so far, and that has made him a good fantasy quarterback. I would expect him to put up solid numbers in this game. There are a lot of really great fantasy quarterback options this weekend with all of the expected shootouts, and I would imagine Greg Ward is in the upper tier. Passing really hasn’t been the forte of this offense this year, so there’s really only one guy to look at here and that is Demarcus Ayers. He has 26 receptions for 300 yards and three touchdowns, and he averages 9.3 targets per game, which is nearly twice as many as the next receiver on Houston. When Greg Ward isn’t running, typically he’s handing the ball to Kenneth Farrow. Farrow hasn’t really been the explosive runner I expected this year, averaging only 4.1 yards per carry with zero rushing touchdowns, but he does lead the team in carries, so he should be getting the majority of the time in the backfield.

Houston offers a high pace of play and bad defense for Tulsa to take advantage of. If Tulsa can slice and dice through a Big 12 defense like Oklahoma (which really isn’t saying a whole lot), they should be able to handle Houston pretty easily. Dane Evans is the quarterback and has had a spectacular year thus far with 1,172 yards and eight touchdowns in the air. He’s got the two guys that he throws to that we know, Keyarris Garrett and Keevan Lucas, but a new third target has emerged in Joshua Atkinson. Garrett actually leads the team with 26 receptions and 454 yards. Keevan is second on the team in both of those categories but has chipped in five touchdowns. It is Atkinson who has emerged lately as a very viable option with 10 receptions for 100 yards against Oklahoma. Clearly in a game like this you could stack Evans with any two of these receivers and probably be in pretty good shape at the end of the day.

Texas @ TCU

Texas has a surprisingly high team total of 28 points on Saturday despite traveling to TCU. The offense has definitely looked a lot better under the guidance of Jerrod Heard. He’s been an adequate passer but a very dangerous quarterback with his legs. He has 55 carries this year for 295 yards and three touchdowns. Throw in the extra couple of touchdowns passing and over 600 yards in the air and he makes for a fine play against a struggling TCU defense on Saturday. Even with Heard in, there is nobody else in this offense that has emerged as a viable threat. Jonathan Gray hasn’t received more than 11 carries in a game this year. He’s off the board with those types of numbers. At receiver I think Daje Johnson makes for a decent flyer, but don’t expect or assume that he’s going to have a big game. He’s extremely hit or miss, as he has one game this year with 100+ yards receiving.

We just witnessed TCU earn a thrilling victory on the road against Texas Tech last Saturday and now they come back home to face Texas. This definitely has potential to be a big letdown for the Horned Frogs. They’re entering a three-game stretch here where the competition is extremely weak. Texas has been terrible on defense this year with a 155 passing rating against them in addition to getting torched on the ground. Clearly Trevone Boykin is the main guy here already with 14 touchdowns through the air and two more on the ground this year. When he throws we all know Josh Doctson is his number one target, but I am extremely leery of Doctson after he poured everything out on the field last week against Texas Tech. This could be a physically and mentally down game for this offense. This may be a game where they attack the ground with Aaron Green. Green is a sensational playmaker with 434 yards rushing and six touchdowns on the ground in 2015. Basically TCU can do whatever they want in this game; it’s just a matter of how they go about attacking Texas.

Washington State @ California

On the surface, when you see Washington State versus California, you assume a big-time Pac-12 shootout. I can’t disagree with that, but the spread throws me off in this game. California is a big favorite and Washington State only has a team total of around 25. While I am still attacking this defense, with all the other great matchups out there I may be treading lightly in this game. For Washington State, their offense is headed by quarterback Luke Falk, and sheer volume makes him one of the best in the country. He averages over 50 attempts per game this year and should be playing from behind in this one. While his price is hefty, I think he makes for a solid play on Saturday amidst everyone jumping on the other quarterbacks in the other high-profile games. When he drops back to pass his number one wide receiver is Gabe Marks, who leads the team with 11 targets per game to go along with his 273 yards and two touchdowns receiving. On DraftKings, in the PPR format, he’s followed by River Cracraft, who has 17 receptions this year, but on FanDuel I favor Dom Williams, who is more of the big-play guy with three touchdowns. Please do yourself a favor and disregard the running backs in this offense. They are fool’s gold and if you were to get anything out of them you’d be really lucky. These guys chuck the ball and that’s what they’re going to do on Saturday.

California has been a huge surprise this year, starting out 4-0. They are led by what is perhaps the future number one draft pick, Jared Goff. Through four games he’s thrown for 1,240 yards and 11 touchdowns. He doesn’t offer anything in the running game, but there might not be a better pure passer in the nation. Considering he is up against a terrible Washington State defense and has a nearly 45 point team total, I think he’s an elite play on Saturday. I’ve said it several times since I saw him a couple years ago, but Kenny Lawler is the number one guy in this offense when it comes to wide receivers. He’s a touchdown maker. He already has six touchdowns on the year to go along with his 21 receptions. If you’re looking for a second option to double stack with Goff or even a way to get around Lawler, I would look to Bryce Treggs. After watching him for a couple years in this offense, I’m pretty sure he’s the second best receiver, although the numbers this year have been down. In the running game everything depends on Daniel Lasco and his health. He has sat out the last two games, but if he is healthy he makes for a very fine option. If he’s out again, it seems like the main beneficiary is going to be Vic Enwere again. Enwere has totaled five touchdowns this season and has 39 carries over the past two games in which Lasco has been out.

Texas Tech @ Baylor

Poor Texas Tech. Compete with TCU one week and then turn right back around and get handed a game against high-powered Baylor. This is the game of the day, the one that everyone is looking towards in DFS. I will say this right now, and take it for what it’s worth, you may be able to fade this game in large field tournaments and have that be the right play. First of all, you’re not going to find any salaries that are terribly inaccurate. All these players are high-priced. Secondly, I know Baylor hasn’t faced anyone yet, but they are playing at a much slower pace (90-74) this year. Having watched Texas Tech grind it out and lose a heartbreaker just seven days prior, this may call for some serious letdown from the Red Raiders. Baylor may be able to come out and control this ball on the ground. For Texas Tech, their offense starts with their quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He’s been good this year, both through the air and on the ground, with 16 total touchdowns, but he was limping around at the end of that game last week and if he has any side effects of a leg injury it would be devastating for this offense. He has four receivers he can throw to; Jakeem Grant, Devon Lauderdale, Reginald Davis, and Ian Sadler. Grant is the PPR guy that you want and Lauderdale is the home run hitter. Reginald Davis got banged up last week and even Lauderdale left for a series or two but returned. I think I would focus my fantasy attention to Grant in this one. At running back, DeAndre Washington just had a day for the ages; over 50 DraftKings points last week for Washington and now he gets Baylor. However I’m not on the train this week. I think this game has a different flow than the one against TCU.

Baylor has a projected team total of a whopping 52 right now. They are going to score points and they’re going to come in bunches. There’s no denying any of this; the only problem is that they are priced accordingly to their talent. Seth Russell spearheads the offense with 15 passing touchdowns so far on the year, and this has come with this team not having been challenged this season. Corey Coleman is your number one wide receiver, already with 460 yards and eight touchdowns on the young season. He’s clearly the safest option in this offense, but like I previously stated, he and Seth Russell are two of the highest priced players on the board. After Cory Coleman I think you look to Jay Lee, who has proven to be a reliable number two in this offense and not the fluke that I thought he was after the first game. It only takes one play in this offense to make the day for one of these middle priced wide receivers like Jay Lee or KD Cannon. I’ll say this about KD Cannon; he’s got as much talent as anybody in this offense but he seems to be a constant disappointment after that huge run to start the 2014 season with all the Baylor injuries. I’m just not sure he’s capable of putting together a game with a big stat line in all three columns as long as Coleman and Jay Lee are all healthy and lining up beside him. With that being said, he’s always a threat for an 80-yard touchdown on any given play. I think this game for Baylor has a chance to turn into a running back by committee thrashing. Devin Chafin sat out last week, but I think that was strictly precautionary getting ready for this game. His goal line presence will eat into the value of Shock Linwood. However, I still think both of these guys are in play, as this could turn into a run-heavy attack by Baylor and multiple touchdowns for each. This is an extremely weak Texas Tech run defense. Unlike last week when Chafin was out, I don’t think Johnny Jefferson or Terrance Williams are in play.

Ohio State @ Indiana

Ohio State at Indiana has blowout written all over it this week. Ohio State hasn’t covered the spread all year long and has looked very much human the last few weeks against terrible competition. I think this is the week they blow a team out. It starts with Cardale Jones, who is securely seated in the quarterback spot for the Buckeyes. This is a terrible defense Indiana has, so I would expect Jones to be in play here for four or more touchdowns. Who he’s going to throw the ball to is an entirely different story, and one that I really don’t want to mess with. You have no one wide receiver in this offense that receives more than 6.3 targets per game. Michael Thomas leads the way, and has three touchdowns. If you MADE me choose one receiver in this offense that I would play, it would be Thomas. The great Braxton Miller looked phenomenal in game one, but that was with injuries to other wide receivers. Now he sits at third on this team with only 4.3 targets per game. You’re depending on him breaking a big run with his legs, and he doesn’t get enough carries to do that. He could have a big game, but I’m not risking it. I think if there’s one guy in this offense that I want to positively roster on Saturday it’s Ezekiel Elliott. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry, he’s getting touchdowns and is getting carries, even against weak opponents. If he gets his typical 19 to 20 carries in this game, he should explode.

Hey Indiana, welcome to your Big 10 season. First up, you get to take on the defending national champions and one of the best defenses in the nation. I know Indiana’s put up some good offensive numbers this year, but it’s been against weak competition. I honestly don’t think they stand a chance of consistently moving the ball outside of garbage time in this game. If I was going to target anybody for Indiana, and I’m not, it would be Nate Sudfeld and the passing game as opposed to the running game. I think this game gets out of hand early and thus limits Jordan Howard and his usage. So, Sudfeld may be an option if you think Indiana is going to put up some garbage time yards in points. Otherwise, Indiana is an easy fade for me