Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 6

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-11-30 22:11:07

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred tamrgets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Massachusetts @ Bowling Green

UMass is a pretty easy team to figure out. They like to pass the ball, and seeing as how they are two-TD underdogs on Saturday, they will look to keep airing it out. Blake Frohnapfel is the QB for UMass; he has over 1,200 yards in four games and this is coming off a 2014 season of over 3,300 yards. So, he is a seasoned QB. Tajae Sharp is your #1 WR to look to for UMass, leading the team with a staggering 18 targets per game. However, he’s only converted that to one touchdown this year. Marken Michel is the WR2 on this team and he has three TDs to his credit, but there is clearly a huge dip in numbers after that. There are three RBs on this team that lurk between 21-25 total carries, so running isn’t the protocol for this team. However if you want to take a flyer on a back, Jamal Wilson does have 11 receptions to lead the backfield and a solid price tag ($3,400) on DraftKings.

Fireworks. They are coming. Bowling Green is a sizzling offense that puts up over 82 plays per game (third in nation) and 36.4 points per game. They are an accomplished offense led by QB Matt Johnson (2,084 yards and 14 TDs). He is an elite option on this slate. It gets even better with his receivers. He has one of the top three options on this set of games in Roger Lewis. Lewis has 40 receptions and has converted them to six TDs. He is as good as anyone in the nation under the right circumstances. However don’t think that this is a one-man show. Bowling Green also features WRs Ronni Moore and Gehrig Dieter. Both are a bit hit or miss, but they follow Lewis (12.0) in targets per game with 9.6 and 9.4 respectively. Taking two of these three WRs in GPPs is an advisable option. It seems as though Travis Greene is becoming the lead back on this team. He had 17 carries the last game while Fred Coppet hasn’t exceeded 10 carries in the last three games. Greene is a bit sketchy at times but is also a weekly threat for multiple TDs in this offense.

Baylor @ Kansas

61-16…that’s the final projected score on this game. The price point on key Baylor players may be a bit high for this type of blowout, but I still think there is value to be found. Seth Russell is the conductor of this train and should be able to put up good stats in his time on the field. I fully expect that he is taking a seat after halftime though. And while 300 yards and five TDs isn’t out of the question, it’s going to be tough to pay full price for a half game. Corey Coleman is the stud for Baylor at WR, and how many yards and TDs he scores in this game will only depend on how many times they target him. He will be virtually unstoppable, but I would think his usage in this game takes a major hit. The same holds true for Jay Lee. KD Cannon may be a good player to turn to, as he has a chance to get slightly more playing time than Coleman or Lee with a backup QB. The running game is a solid place to look for value in Baylor. Shock Linwood will slice through this defense quicker than Jason Robins’ rebuttal through a misinformed lawyer. He too will be hampered by the blowout. I think a possible source of value is Johnny Jefferson ($4,500). With 12 carries last week and Devin Chafin still nursing a hamstring, I believe he is the second man up after Linwood takes a seat. He could serve as backup to Linwood for two quarters then get the third Q to himself before giving way to Terrance Williams.

Sorry Kansas, but it’s that time of the year: the annual beatdown at the hands of Baylor. If I could offer one guy from this Kansas team as a possible play it would be Ke’aun Kinner. He leads the team by averaging 20.4 DraftKings points per game and could get a decent reception total out of the backfield, having accumulated five catches over the last two weeks. Otherwise, the last two results in this head-to-head history have been 59-14 and 60-14, so there is not much meat on the bone if a team is only scoring two touchdowns in a contest.

Iowa State @ Texas Tech

Iowa State is about as plain and vanilla as you could ever imagine; just decent enough to hold off the Kansas’ of the world, but terrible enough to get blown out by most good teams. However, just when you write them off they usually come through with one game each year where they play well over their head and suck you in. This has that potential. They are two-TD underdogs on the road to a team that is coming off back-to-back games versus juggernauts. This could be a letdown for Tech. There are two guys you need to know about for the Cyclones. Sam Richardson is the QB. This guy is not half bad as an athlete but makes terrible decisions sometimes. All four games this year he has ranged from 233-269 yards passing with two TDs in three of them. He is consistent. When he drops back to pass he usually looks to Allen Lazard. Lazard earns 8.3 targets per game and, while any of the three WRs have a chance to have big games on any given Saturday, he is the guy I want if I’m playing a Cyclone wideout. Everybody’s new favorite toy last week on DraftKings was Mike Warren. He was underpriced and playing Kansas and went off for a big game. I didn’t get the memo. I lost. Truth is though, in this game things don’t shape up as favorable for him. Sure it’s a soft Texas Tech run defense, but his price tag ($6,000) is now where it belongs. Also, this feels like a game in which Iowa State COULD find themselves behind and throwing for the duration of the second half. Game flow will be key for Warren this week.

Well, Texas Tech has to be feeling better about life right now. Games against TCU and then Baylor can stress a person out. Now back home against a weak Iowa State team, what could go wrong? The Tech QB is Patrick Mahomes and he’s proven to be a very reliable fantasy asset this season. He showed no ill effects of an injury last week and has reached the 36+ DraftKings point mark in all but one game this season (Arkansas). The only question about Mahomes’ value is healthy WRs. Jakeem Grant is the unquestioned leader of this WR corps, leading the team in targets, receptions and yardage. After him, things get fuzzy. Both Ian Sadler and Devin Lauderdale, the second and third leading receivers on the team, are questionable this week with various injuries. Reginald Davis only totaled one reception last week also. We could be looking at a serious crapshoot after Grant. Iowa State is not a great run defense (156.3 yards per game allowed), but Texas Tech doesn’t want to run. I think DeAndre Washington had his big game two weeks ago and now he will drift back into mediocrity. However, with the injuries to the WR corps, it stands to reason he gets a little extra burn this week.

Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee travels to Western Kentucky in what should be a solid offensive tilt. Middle Tennessee passes the ball 55% of the time on offense. So, they have passing tendencies, but they aren’t in the same range as some of the more dynamic air attacks out there. Brent Stockstill is the guy to own at QB for this team and I was fairly impressed with him last week against Vanderbilt in a tough matchup. He has exceeded 30 DraftKings points on two separate occasions this season, so he has upside. This passing game seems to center around two guys: Edward Batties and Richie James. Together they make up over 63% of the targets that go around. Batties is the TD maker with eight trips to the end zone so far, but James is neck and neck with him in receptions (42) and yardage (447). I think both make for nice plays this weekend. On the ground, Jordan Parker has 63 of the 202 total carries for this team. He seems to be the most efficient back also with four TDs and a 4.9 yards per carry average. If Middle Tennessee chooses to attack in the running game, Parker could make for a nice play; otherwise he is best left for GPPs.

The Hilltoppers are such a good fantasy team. Every week people choose to stack other dynamic passing games and forget how good these guys are. Brandon Doughty is the QB for this team and he is as steady as they come for a big time fantasy producer. He has 400+ yards in each of his last four games and is a solid weekly bet for four or more touchdowns. At WR/TE we have a nice three-headed monster of Jared Dangerfield, Taywan Taylor and Tyler Higbee. Together they have feasted for 13 TDs and they get the vast majority of all the reps in the passing game. Finding the correct two guys out of this trio makes for an exceptional stack. Running back is a bit dicey these days, however. Anthony Wales returned from injury last week and only carried the ball three times. However, with that game being a blowout and them needing to ease him in, he was limited. This week may see extra carries taken away from starter D’Andre Ferby.

Oklahoma @ Texas

Oklahoma is in a great spot for an offensive showcase here on Saturday. This is the annual Red River game in Dallas, and because of the neutral location, the spread on this game is a manageable -17 in Oklahoma’s favor. The bottom line on Texas is that they rank 99th in the nation versus the run (211 YPG) and 112th against the pass (297 YPG). Oklahoma will find success whichever way they choose to. The passing game is a nice place to start for the Sooners. Led by QB Baker Mayfield, the Sooners have the weapons to do damage against this weak Longhorn defense. Mayfield has 17 total TDs this season and is a solid option at a discounted price ($8,000) on DraftKings. The main guy to target out of this WR corps is Sterling Shepard, who leads the team with 20 catches, 321 yards and three TDs. Not far behind those numbers is transfer sensation Dede Westbrook, who has five catches in each of the past two games. At running back I’m still waiting on a breakout game this year from Samaje Perine. He is getting carries (23, 22, 16 in the last three games), so I am having a hard time seeing why he isn’t converting them to more production. There is a general look of comfortability there, but he has too much talent and the Longhorns defense is soft, so these things may converge on Saturday for a big game.

Rivalry game? Yes. Usually it takes these kinds of games to bring the best out of a team. For Texas, I’m not going that deep on them in fantasy. Jerrod Heard is the only playable factor in this game for Texas, and even he is suspect. After the huge game against Cal, he has followed that up with single digit fantasy performance for two weeks now. This is not an offense I want. The only thing I want from them is to do something to keep his game close so OU keeps the need to score.

Georgia @ Tennessee

Fresh off a 146-yard game against Alabama and their top rated run defense, Nick Chubb takes on a Tennessee team that ranks middle of the pack in the nation in rush defense. Chubb can, and has, destroyed everyone in his path. Tennessee is no exception. The guy averages 8.2 yards per carry this season and there doesn’t appear to be much letdown here. The price tag is concerning, as it is tough to get studs in your lineups with the tighter caps, but Chubb is one of the premier options at running back. As for the rest of the offense, Greyson Lambert is the QB for Georgia and he has had some mild success this season (7:1 TD:INT), but I’m finding it hard to trust him this week. His #1 target is Malcolm Mitchell with 23 receptions and three TDs. Mitchell makes for a decent back end roster filler if you’re looking to save some salary, but I wouldn’t go overboard since Georgia WRs can be unpredictable with game flow.

Let’s start off by narrowing the playing field here; avoid Tennessee wide receivers. This is a two-man show: Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. Dobbs is a supreme talent and can be a fantasy monster when he runs. His best game this year was 32 DraftKings points and it came against Florida, a rock solid defense. Competition doesn’t matter and he actually thrives in bigger, tougher games because it forces him to run. This may be one of those spots. Running back Jalen Hurd has actually been the best fantasy player on this team. He has been steady as a rock with games ranging between 17-27 points. Nothing more, nothing less. The Volunteers are approaching a four-touchdown team total in Vegas at the time of writing and I would be surprised if they didn’t at least come close to that. If they do find their way in the end zone four or more times, it stands to reason that the two guys who have scored 85% of their total offensive touchdowns this year would get a major piece of that.