Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 7

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-10-18 17:09:41

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Texas Tech @ Kansas

Texas Tech is on the road this weekend to take on Kansas in a game that sees them as massive 31-point favorites. Normally this might be a red flag point spread, but with Texas Tech it makes no difference how much they’re up by. They’re going to continue to pass the ball with every opportunity they get. At quarterback, they’re led by Patrick Mahomes and there’s not much else I need to say about this guy. He’s one of the elite fantasy quarterbacks in the nation and Tech has a 53-point team total this week. Not rocket science here: play this guy.

Wide receiver last week was a bit tricky but also a bit predictable, if that makes sense. We knew that, with injuries, Jakeem Grant would be a stud play, and he was one of the best wide receivers on the day. However, after that it got much cloudier. Nobody really stepped up last week to take the place of Devin Lauderdale and Ian Sadler. Many fantasy teams were left with goose eggs because Tony Brown and Zack Austin couldn’t get it together. Still not positive about the injury status of Lauderdale, but Grant makes for a good play every week anyhow. After that, it’s a crapshoot.

At running back, DeAndre Washington is clearly the number one back and is going to get most of the carries. In a game like this with such a heavy spread, I wouldn’t doubt if he gets an above average amount of touches in this game. Also, I would not hesitate to play Justin Stockton and his small price tag in this situation. Clearly this guy is a playmaker and every time he gets his hands on the ball he is a threat to score from any distance. In a game with this type of blowout potential, I could see him getting extra touches and thus getting into the end zone multiple times.

What more can you say about Kansas except for the fact that they’re just terrible? They’re down to their fourth-string quarterback, and he’s not good. Ryan Willis isn’t a guy I see making very many plays in this game, even against a weak Texas Tech defense. I guess if you’re looking for a crapshoot low-priced quarterback on DraftKings, you could play him and pray for the best, but his upside is very limited. The sad part is that this matchup is typically so juicy, but you can’t take advantage of it because this offense is so bad.

Going into last week, I think most would have thought Kinner was the lead back for Kansas and he looked fairly good those first couple weeks. However after last week’s disappointing two-carry effort, he’s definitely not on the fantasy radar this week. The bad quarterback play drags everybody else on this offense down, including every single wide receiver. There’s really not one that I would point to that would make for a decent play this week. As much as it pains me to avoid the Texas Tech defense, that’s the route I’m going this week, outside of a couple of large field tournament dart throws on Willis; check his injury status to make sure he’s the starter this week.

West Virginia @ Baylor

No one who was playing fantasy college football back in 2012 will ever forget the 70-62 Baylor/West Virginia shootout. Possibly the greatest fantasy game of all time. Over the years, they’ve clearly never duplicated that kind of game, but it has still been an entertaining series nonetheless. The West Virginia team has shifted a bit in recent years from that explosive high-powered offense and now they actually feature a fairly competent defense and not as much firepower on the offensive side of the ball. Still, in a game where they are projected to score slightly over four touchdowns, there is some fantasy goodness to be had on the roster. It starts with Skyler Howard, who’s a decent quarterback. He makes for a solid play this week just based on the sheer volume that he will have to throw to keep up with Baylor. He’s definitely not Geno Smith and I wouldn’t expect massive numbers, but he still has upside because the price tag is still very generous on both sites.

The talent at a wide receiver has also waned over the years, and now your number one wide receiver is Shelton Gibson with 20 receptions and five touchdowns this year. The number two guy is going to be Jovon Durante, a TD or bust guy. He comes in with 18 receptions and three touchdowns, and I would expect one of these guys to find success against the secondary. Jordan Thompson and Dakiel Shorts are more of the short range reception receivers and they lack touchdown upside. In this kind of environment, any two of these four guys could have big games, though.

At running back, you’ve got a two-headed situation featuring Wendell Smallwood (89 carries) and Rushel Shell (73 carries). This is going to be about how Dana Holgorsen wants to attack this defense. If he wants to eat up clock and pound the running game in order to keep Baylor’s offense off the field, Shell is going to have the bigger game. But, if they get behind early and they don’t have that option, Smallwood is going to be your main back. At this point, I don’t believe that they’re going to be able to slow down Baylor, therefore I’m leaning Smallwood to have the better numbers in this game.

On the Baylor offensive side of the ball, there’s not a ton of analysis you need here. Seth Russell is your number one quarterback on the day in terms of sheer projections, but along with his running mates, he is priced accordingly on each and every site.

The best wide receiver in the nation in terms of fantasy is Corey Coleman. With 13 touchdowns already on the year, he makes for a great play every single week. After Coleman, there’s a little bit a discrepancy as to what is going to unfold. I’ve been waiting on KD Cannon to actually do something this year after his tantalizing season in 2014. I’m still waiting, because he hasn’t been good this year. Jay Lee has actually been the number two wide receiver in this offense with 18 receptions and four touchdowns, but if you take away the big play, he has lapses in games and is a fantasy liability. The one thing that is intriguing to me is that Baylor has faced a who’s who of nobodies so far this year in opposition, so to get out there against a competent West Virginia defense could bring some players more into the light this week.

As with every week, the threat of the passing game opens up huge holes for the running game. Shock Linwood has taken advantage of that the past few weeks and destroyed opposing defenses. He’s gone over 100 yards in four straight games and has seven rushing touchdowns in that span. There is no defending the run against Baylor, because you have to focus so much on the wide receivers. Once again, if Linwood gets carries, he’s going to destroy another defense.

Tulsa @ East Carolina

Tulsa travels to East Carolina on Saturday in what is a sneaky shootout game, as everyone will focus their attention on West Virginia and Baylor. Tulsa is led by quarterback Dane Evans, who has 1839 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Looking at East Carolina’s defensive pass metrics, they’re clearly a team that can be thrown on. I think Evans makes for a really nice play at a lower salary if you don’t want to play Seth Russell.

Unfortunately, two weeks ago Tulsa lost one of the better wide receivers in the nation in Keevan Lucas. I don’t know if that is necessarily going to promote Keyarris Garrett to the number one spot or if it means more targets for Joshua Atkinson; I think the biggest beneficiary may be Justin Hobbs. Last game out with an injured Keevan Lucas, Atkinson and Garrett did what they typically do. However, it was Justin Hobbs who took five receptions and turned them into 82 yards and a touchdown after having only two receptions combined the entire season going into the game. Regardless, I wouldn’t stack all three, but all three are very relevant on Saturday.

In the running game, the main man is still Zack Langer. He’s been a touchdown machine, having scored at least one touchdown in every single game. Three of his five games have seen him get into the end zone multiple times. He just makes for a nice, steady fantasy play to go with a mid-range salary.

We haven’t had a ton of East Carolina main slate action this year, so this is going to be the first time they get written up in this column. They’re actually a bit of a tricky team to figure out going into this week. Leading up to last game, it looked like James Summers had taken a hold of the starting quarterback position and that meant a lot of running from that spot. However, he was benched before halftime of the game last week and Blake Kemp came in to close it out. If Summers starts, he makes for a fantastic fantasy play with 100+-yard rushing potential. If Blake Kemp is the starter, I’m not as sold on him as a solid play.

This quarterback situation has a trickle-down effect also. When James Summers is the quarterback, Isaiah Jones is a forgotten man because Summers is a terrible passer and doesn’t look to target Jones nearly as much as the other quarterback. So, in many ways the fate of Isaiah Jones’ fantasy performance is tied to the decision of who’ll be starting quarterback. If Kemp is the starter, you can fire up Isaiah Jones (and his 48 receptions for 560 yards this year) and put them in your lineup.

Chris Hairston makes for an interesting play, as he is technically the number one running back on the team. However, he hasn’t exceeded 18 carries in any game this year and has gone over the 100-yard mark only one time. He accumulated four of his six touchdowns this year in the first game against a weak Towson. That’s also the game in which he went over 100 yards, so there’s definitely holes in his fantasy performance this year. But, it’s such a good matchup that I wouldn’t hesitate to throw him in some GPP teams this weekend.

Mississippi @ Memphis

I like this game from the Ole Miss offensive point of view. Memphis has impressed me this year on defense, and the offense is good enough to keep pace in this game. The quarterback for Ole Miss is Chad Kelly, who’s been above average thus far. He has exceeded 300 yards passing in four of the six games and will usually grab you around 20 yards rushing, which is big in college fantasy; sacks equal negative yards rushing and some quarterbacks end up costing you two or three points on rushing yard totals at the end of the game. I think Kelly is in a pretty favorable spot here against a defense with a pass rating of 136 against them, one that also runs a high pace of 80 plays per game.

When he drops back to pass, I’m looking for Laquon Treadwell to be the number one guy in this game. He’s their leading receiver this year in yards and receptions and seems to getting healthier as each week goes by. I just don’t think there’s anyone on Memphis that can cover this guy. He has nearly twice as many receptions as the next closest guy on the team, so he is the only receiver in play for me.

At running back, Jaylen Walton is the most explosive runner on the team. He missed last week’s game against New Mexico State with an injury but is listed as probable for this week. His speed has an opportunity to give Memphis a ton of problems on Saturday, and I think he makes for a solid large field tournament player to roster for a cheaper price.

Memphis is a difficult sell for me this week. Vegas has a fairly generous team total for them set around 27 points. However, I typically don’t go out and look for players that are playing against this Ole Miss defense. If you were to take a chance, Paxton Lynch would be the quarterback for Memphis and he’s been a fairly good player this entire season. He’s thrown for over 1500 yards and has another 100+ yards rushing to go along with 11 total touchdowns.

There’s really not one wide receiver that I can pinpoint as a stud, but if I narrowed it down to a guy that I would play it would be Mose Frazier, who has 21 receptions and 279 yards on the year.

Running back for this team is a clear-cut, four-headed, split-carry monster that I wouldn’t touch in fantasy, not only against Ole Miss but also basically any game this year. Avoid this backfield.

Oregon State @ Washington State

It’s hard for me to get excited about the Oregon State offense after that terrible game I witnessed last week against Arizona. I know Washington State usually brings a pretty soft defense and some high-scoring games, but when Vegas only gives you credit for approximately a 25 point team total against the Cougars, you’re probably pretty inept on offense. After having some solid games earlier in the year, Seth Collins looked terrible last week against Arizona while putting up only 56 yards passing and zero touchdowns through the air. This was coming off a couple of decent passing games which made me think he was turning the corner, but then he reverted back to that bad freshman that we saw the first couple weeks of the year. He definitely won’t be part of my cash games this week, although he may be worth a GPP flyer just based on his rushing potential. The sad part is that when he struggles to pass, which he’s done for most of this year, it’s a bad omen for his wide receivers.

His number one wideout would be Jordan Villamin with 20 receptions on the year, but after last week’s three reception for 21 yard game, I have a hard time trusting this guy, even against Washington State.

At running back, your leading rusher for the team is actually Seth Collins, and that speaks volumes as to how inconsistent Storm Woods has been this year. He’s only recorded one touchdown in 2015 and he’s had games against inferior opponents already. So, judging by that background, I don’t think he makes for an incredibly solid play this week. With all that being said, clearly anytime you get a game against Washington State, the opposing offense has an opportunity to put up some massive numbers. They just won’t be in my cash game rosters this week.

Washington State is a very easy team to dissect, so let me get right to it. First off, don’t trust the rushing game. Gerard Wicks is your leading rusher on the year with 42 carries but has only converted that to 219 yards and one measly touchdown. This entire backfield has only rushed for two touchdowns total the entire season. Anything can happen on any given Saturday, but you just want to put your money in the best position possible, and trusting a Washington State running back, no matter how juicy the matchup, is not smart.

Now to the good stuff. Luke Falk is your quarterback and he’s been a very reliable fantasy asset this season. He’s thrown for 300 or more yards in four out of five games and has multiple touchdowns in each and every game. Last week he threw for over 500 yards and five touchdowns in a conference game against Oregon, and now he takes on a weak Oregon State defense. Another 500 yards and 4+ touchdowns is definitely a possibility in this game.

For his pass catchers, it’s pretty simple also. Gabe Marks is the number one wideout on this team with 43 catches and five touchdowns. If you’re playing on FanDuel, the guy you want is Don Williams, who is more of a touchdown threat with four touchdowns this season on a 14.7 yards per reception average. River Cracraft only has two touchdowns, but he’s more of a PPR guy with 29 receptions this year, good for second on the team behind Marks.

Oklahoma @ Kansas State

Fresh off that embarrassing loss to Texas last weekend, Oklahoma travels to take on Kansas State in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. We just saw Kansas State defense get ravaged by TCU in primetime last Saturday night. Oklahoma’s defense wasn’t much better, as they allowed three offensive touchdowns to a terrible Texas offense. Baker Mayfield is your quarterback for Oklahoma and he had a really disappointing game last weekend against Texas. It was by far his worst game of the season and I would expect a big bounce back game against a Kansas State secondary that is rank relatively low with a 130 pass rating against.

Sterling Shepard should be the number one WR on this team, but man has he been inconsistent and costly to fantasy owners. He salvaged his line late in the second half of last week’s game and got up to six catches for 95 yards. This is coming after a game against West Virginia in which he only caught two receptions for 35 yards. I like the guy, I think he has talent and is fantasy relevant, but it’s hard to trust him in a cash game scenario this weekend. Dede Westbrook is the number two wide receiver on this team with 21 receptions for 307 yards. There are times when he looks like a high upside receiver, and then there are times when he looks lost. Against Kansas State I would expect this entire offense to reboot and have a solid game, thus making him a player to keep an eye on.

What can you say about Samaje Perine? The guy was on top of the fantasy world last year and looked like he could not be stopped. Now he’s coming off a game against Texas in which he only had 10 carries for 36 yards. He’s only exceeded 100 yards in a game this year one time. He’s only scored three touchdowns on the ground this year and they all came in separate games. He just has not strung together a game in which he has gotten consistent carries, high yardage and found the end zone. The day will come; I just don’t know how long you can hold out hope that it’s going to happen this week. With that being said, I think he makes for a solid GPP play because the price tag is depressed and Oklahoma may go back to the basics after that whooping that Texas put on him last weekend.

I’m not surprised that TCU was able to shred the Kansas State defense last week, as the Wildcats have been pretty inept on defense for a while now. The shocking part to me was that their offense was able to keep pace with TCU and push that game to the limits. I take the first few games of the season for Kansas State with a grain of salt because they played terrible competition. But, they showed a little spark against Oklahoma State and carried it over to the TCU game. This is a solid offensive team. Quarterback Joe Hubener absolutely destroyed TCU last week with 111 yards rushing and four touchdowns. If he’s going to be a fantasy player, he’s going to have to do it on the ground, as he really lacks skills in the passing game.

Those lack of skills in the art of passing have a lead to a non-play situation for their wide receivers. No one has exceeded 15 receptions this year and I wouldn’t go near these guys.

Hubener has actually carried the ball more than any other player on this team this season, but after him Justin Silmon is the go-to running back. He has 57 carries on the year for 282 yards. Once again this year Charles Jones is vulturing touchdowns with three already on the season. I think any of these three guys, Hubener, Silmon or Jones, can make it on your roster this week and slightly outperform their salary.