Levitan's Leverage: Divisional Round

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2015-01-13 16:39:47

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My first impression of this week’s FanDuel pricing was that everyone costs a lot. There are very few value plays to get behind and a lot of elite players clustered in the top tier. On a point-per-dollar basis, we’re really splitting hairs between my five “in play” quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson). Tournament players should note that most owners will gravitate toward Wilson because he’s the cheapest by a wide margin. Everyone should note that on extremely short/tight-priced slates like this, our edge against a standard opponent shrinks.

All comments below refer to FanDuel pricing. The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.

GPP-ONLY FADE

Dan Herron, RB, Colts

The logic on fading Herron is similar to what we used last week with the GPP-only Jeremy Hill fade. When we can be certain a player will have truly massive ownership, there’s almost always merit to looking elsewhere. It’s not just that Hill didn’t return value with 10.7 FD points at 51.4 percent ownership in the Wild Card Milly. It’s that in a short slate, rosters that contained Hill often looked similar to each other – exactly what we don’t want in a large-field tournament. And given how much tougher pricing is this week and Herron’s bargain $6100 price, I suspect Herron will be around that 50 percent ownership mark.

So even though I’ll be using Herron as a much-needed value play in my cash game lineups, I’ll again take a shot at knocking out half the field in GPPs by not using him. It’s certainly not inconceivable that this supremely talented Broncos defense, one that ranked 2nd against the run and gave up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, holds Herron in check despite his big-time role on the Colts.

CONTRARIAN GPP STACK

Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas

Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas

Down the stretch, the Broncos successfully implemented a run-based scheme that relied on their elite defense. It meant fantasy frustration, as Peyton Manning attempted just 31.0 passes per game over the last five, averaging 233.8 yards with a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio. That, combined with the presence of Vontae Davis, is going to make Peyton lightly owned this week even though the Broncos’ team total is a massive 30.5. Given the pass-game friendly weather forecast in Denver Sunday (45 degrees, 5-10 MPH winds) and that Manning had a week off to get over his illness/thigh issues, we can expect a better performance. Even if the volume isn’t there, it would only take increased red-zone efficiency to give Manning a high ceiling. Over those last five games, Connor Barth has made an absurd 11 field goals from 39 yards out or closer.

That lack of red-zone efficiency from the Broncos brings us to Julius Thomas. Clearly not over his Week 11 ankle injury, Thomas has played on just 50.7 percent of the snaps in his three games since returning and been targeted a total of eight times. But now that it’s the playoffs and the chips are down, logic suggests the Broncos will unleash Thomas – at least around the goal-line. This is a freak talent that had 12 touchdowns in the nine games before his injury. The Colts are also strong at corner with Vontae Davis/Greg Toler, which is one reason JT went 7-104-3 on Indy in Week 1. The usage risks with Julius mean I prefer Jason Witten’s floor in cash games (if we can’t fit Gronkowski), but the touchdown upside for Julius makes him an attractive part of a GPP stack.

SITUATION TO CAPITALIZE ON

Cole Beasley’s quietly rising role

Over the last six weeks, Tony Romo has targeted slot man Cole Beasley 34 times. That’s only three less than Dez Bryant’s 37, a substantial 13 more than Terrance Williams (21) and three more than Jason Witten (31). Beasley has turned those targets into 9.15 FanDuel points per game. This week sets up nicely for him to get another 5-7 targets, as the Cowboys figure to be trailing and small-handed Tony Romo will be looking to throw short in sub-freezing temperatures. Beasley is not someone I would typically play in a full-slate situation, or even in a week with more value options, because he’s a low-upside, 5’8/180 former UDFA. But given the pricing structure this week, constructing rosters gets a whole lot easier with a solid-floor $5300 wideout in there.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and the Patriots pass game against Ravens secondary

Tom Brady and Julian Edelman

It’s at least possible that the Patriots won’t even try to establish a ground game against the Ravens this week. The Ravens ranked fourth against the run during the regular season, gave up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs by a wide margin, and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 6 of 2013 (Eddie Lacy). We’ve seen Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels do this before when facing elite run defenses. In four games against top-10 run defenses this year, Tom Brady attempted 44.5 passes per game. In his other 12 games, he attempted 33.6.

A spread, pass-based gameplan makes even more sense this week with the Ravens secondary remaining in shambles. Top CB Lardarius Webb was PFF’s No. 78 corner among 108 qualifiers, slot man Anthony Levine is a former UDFA journeyman and No. 2 CB Rashaan Melvin was just signed off the Dolphins’ practice squad in a month ago. I like Brady as a contrarian tournament play, am building a lot of lineups around Julian Edelman and am doing everything I can to fit Rob Gronkowski. Brandon LaFell is a nice pivot off Edelman in tournaments, and Shane Vereen/Tim Wright are worthwhile looks as punts for those that fire off a lot of GPP lineups.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES