Levitan's Leverage: Week 10

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-11-13 16:14:52

rotogrinders_user_24653

We can gain value at a lot of positions by exploring upside at lower salaries. Tight end is not one of them.

The massive cliff from the “big 3” of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas to the rest of the field is such a massive advantage that it’s worth eating the big price-tags weekly. I was all set to ride with Julius this week, but then Patrick Willis (toe) was deemed highly questionable. Willis is perhaps the best cover linebacker in the game and is giving up just a 58.3 passer rating when thrown at this year. If he can’t go, Graham steps in ahead of Julius for me as the one playing at home, in the dome with less competition for targets.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADES

1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers

The hottest quarterback on the planet is facing the Jets’ hot mess at cornerback. On paper, it’s an obvious, no-brainer, dream scenario for Ben Roethlisberger to post crooked numbers once again. Not so fast.

First and foremost, I’m worried about the situational spot for the Steelers. In case you haven’t noticed, NFL teams don’t play at their peak, or even 75 percent of their peak ability every week. They have letdowns and they have them all the time – typically on the road. The Steelers have won three straight games (all at home), averaging 41.3 points per game during a span that’s seen Roethlisberger post an absurd 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio. But now they come off a massive Sunday Night Football win over the arch-rival Ravens and have to go to New York to face the lowly Jets. The undefeated beast that is regression is poised to kick in in the form of a letdown.

roeth

Vegas is clearly leaning toward the Jets. At most books, this line opened Monday afternoon with the Steelers -4. 5 and an over/under of 45.5. It has not moved even though everyone and their grandmother is betting Pittsburgh. Notice that the team scoring projection for the Steelers there is just 24.5 points.

Of course, Big Ben has struggled on the road all season – he’s averaging just 228.5 passing yards and 1.0 TDs in four games against BAL, CAR, JAX and CLE. And of course, his ownership percentage will be through the roof in FanDuel GPPs at $8300, just fifth-most among quarterbacks. I’d prefer to pay up for Peyton Manning/Aaron Rodgers, or take value in Matt Ryan/Mike Vick/Mark Sanchez. I fear a massive egg will be laid by both the Steelers and Big Ben.

2. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers

Even if you’re high on Ben Roethlisberger this week, you can’t expect six touchdowns. Three touchdowns would be a steep projection given this game’s 45.5 over/under. Martavis Bryant set a season-high by playing on 51.3 percent of the snaps last week, two fewer than Markus Wheaton. So what happens when Big Ben inevitably regresses to normalcy? We have a TD-dependent rotational wideout that threatens to leave a big hole in your box score. At $6100, Bryant will also be very heavily owned this week given the tight pricing on FanDuel. It’s a recipe for a fade. I’d prefer Davante Adams $5200, Justin Hunter $5400, Jordan Matthews $5700, Torrey Smith $5900 as cheaper GPP wideout shots.

CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACK

Michael Vick and Percy Harvin

Yes, Michael Vick is injury-prone and turnover-prone. But this guy can still fill a box score, even at age 34. As an Eagle with Chip Kelly for the first four games of last year, Vick averaged 270.0 passing yards, 1.2 pass TDs, 57.0 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing TDs. Now reunited in New York with the Marty Mornhinweg offense he knows so well, he handled himself surprisingly well in a brutal spot for his first start as a Jet – in Arrowhead against the Chiefs’ No. 1 pass defense. Now Vick gets to come home to face an atrocious Steelers defense that is even slower as they’ll be without Troy Polamalu (knee) and speedy sideline-to-sideline linebacker Ryan Shazier (ankle).

Unlike past versions of this Jets offense, Vick actually has weapons to work with. Eric Decker and Percy Harvin get plus matchups against a Steelers secondary that has benched starting CB Cortez Allen and almost certainly won’t have starting CB Ike Taylor (arm) back. Vick’s still elite legs – he’s rushed 12 times for 87 yards in his last seven quarters – give him the kind of GPP upside we’re seeking when attacking these massive fields. I give the slight edge to stacking him with Harvin over Decker because of the way they’re force-feeding their new toy the ball (84 percent of the snaps in Week 9, 13 targets, one rush, two kickoff returns).

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Public fear of Mark Sanchez

I can’t say anything about Mark Sanchez without someone laughing about how “terrible” he is or talking about the butt-fumble. I don’t really see his Jets misery as very relevant right now. His “weapons” at the peak of the embarrassment were Jeremy Kerley and a no-effort Santonio Holmes, and his offensive coordinators were Brian Schottenheimer and Tony Sparano.

mark-sanchez-300x200

Now Sanchez has Chip Kelly, god of offense. Note that Nick Foles was not playing at a very high level at all this season prior to his collarbone injury. He was throwing off his back foot consistently, holding the ball too long and making lots of poor decisions. Yet he was still lighting up the box score to the tune of 291.2 yards and 1.7 TDs per game, utilizing Chip’s effective scheming and the raw number of offensive plays the fastbreak style provides (72.4 per game, second only to Colts). If there’s a talent gap between Foles and Sanchez, it’s not crazy to give the edge to Sanchez. Kelly, a PAC-12 expert, went out and recruited the former USC star to come to Philly in free agency – he did not inherit him. On top of all this, Sanchez was tremendous while coming in cold off the bench against the Texans last week and gets a cupcake matchup at home against the Panthers this week. I think he’s an excellent play in both cash and GPP at just $6600. For GPP, I like pairing him with Jordan Matthews, who is playing roughly 2/3 of the snaps now and developed chemistry with Sanchez while both were second-teamers in the offseason. The salary relief there opens up your budget tremendously.

2. Reset for the Falcons, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White

Perhaps no team needed the Week 9 bye like the Falcons. They went into it on a five-game losing streak, with Julio Jones dropping passes and battling a bit of an ankle tweak. Now they’ve had a chance to reset and come out of the bye against a Bucs pass defense that ranks 30th in completion percentage allowed, 29th in YPA allowed, 29th in TDs allowed, 31st in yards per game allowed and 30th in passer rating allowed. When these two teams matched up on a Thursday night in Week 3, Roddy White didn’t play which helped Julio Jones go for 9-161-2. Jones’ projection isn’t quite that attractive with Roddy now healthy, but the upside is certainly there for another line like that. Ryan, Jones and White will be in both my cash games and GPPs.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Kelvin Benjamin vs. Eagles corners

This is not rocket science. We take talented perimeter wide receivers going against Bradley Fletcher/Cary Williams and we get box score results. Yes, that formula whiffed badly in Week 8 as Michael Floyd airballed. But he did have two bombs in his hands and target volume has become an issue for him (4.6/game over last five). Targets are not an issue for Kelvin, who has at least eight in 7-of-9 games this season and is averaging 8.6 per day on the year. If game flow goes as expected here and the Eagles get a lead, we’ll see plenty of shots to Benjamin. It’s similar to what I talked about in this exact space last week with DeAndre Hopkins, who came through with a 6-115-1.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES