Levitan's Leverage: Week 11
It’s an interesting slate this week, as we have four of the league’s best offenses matching up. The NE/IND game has the season’s highest over/under, and the PHL/GB game has the season’s second-highest total. I also like a lot in some of the games projected to be in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring – you’ll find some of those below.
One place I don’t like a lot of guys this week is at running back, given DeMarco Murray’s bye, Arian Foster’s injury and difficult spots for the likes of Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Andre Ellington.
The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.
FADES
1. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles
Regular readers of this column know I’m never going to get on a guy a week late. I wrote about Mark Sanchez and Jordan Matthews in this column last week when they had “butt-fumbler” haters and a pristine matchup. Now they have everyone in their corner and a far more difficult matchup: at Lambeau with a forecast of 29 degrees, 14 MPH wind and a 30 percent chance of snow.
I absolutely love the fit slot man Matthews has with Sanchez, as they both spent the offseason on the second team and Sanchez likes to keep the ball between the hashes. But Matthews still only played on 57.8 percent of the snaps last week, roughly in the range he’s been at all year. Clearly the focus of the Chip Kelly gameplan against a Carolina defense that is particularly inept at defending the slot (nine Matthews targets on 26 routes run), he may not be as involved this week as he has to face excellent Green Bay slot corner Casey Hayward. More generally speaking, the way to beat the Packers is by attacking their run defense that ranks 30th in yards per game allowed and 28th in YPA allowed.
Thanks to FanDuel’s tight pricing and Matthews’ meager $5500 tag ($200 less than last week), I expect him to be the highest owned player this week. For the reasons above, I’ll have none of him in GPPs.
2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Last week was the one to be on Calvin Johnson. His ownership was low because he was coming off his ankle injury, but those that follow the news closely knew he was 100% and at home with a 7-inch height advantage on Brent Grimes.
Now that everyone feels warm and fuzzy about Calvin (7-113-1 against Miami), they will be on him big because they’ll see Arizona is 30th in pass yards allowed. I won’t be. First of all, this is a game with an over/under of 41.5 points, second-lowest of Week 11 behind only HOU/CLE (41 points). But more importantly, I’ve seen recent signs of life from Arizona’s outside corner duo. The breaking point seemed to be Week 8, when Patrick Peterson looked like he was literally lost while trying to cover Jeremy Maclin. Since then, they held Dez Bryant to 2-15-1 on 10 targets in Week 9 and then Kenny Britt to 3-31-0 on five targets in Week 10. Antonio Cromartie, 6-foot-2, has shot up to second overall in PFF’s coverage grades. Peterson, 6-foot-1, has gotten his feet under him over the last two weeks and is now playing with confidence. This is a supremely talented player that was PFF’s No. 11 cover corner in 2013 – we know the ability is there. If paying up at WR this week, I prefer Demaryius Thomas $9100, Antonio Brown $9000, Jordy Nelson $8900 or Emmanuel Sanders $8600.
MINI FADES
1. Randall Cobb – I do not like to use slot receivers against Eagles slot corner Brandon Boykin, a special player with shutdown ability. The best matchup in this PHL/GB game goes to Davante Adams, who will be facing Cary Williams and will be grossly underowned after his snap-reduced 1-10-0 against the Bears last week.
2. Peyton Manning – The Broncos are on their third straight road game, a difficult spot for any team – even one as good as the Broncos. Their offensive line has also been a bit messy of late, leading to different combinations and a workout for Richie Incognito. The Rams have the pass-rush ability to exploit that. I’m nitpicking here, but that’s what we have to do when a player costs a whopping $10,400 for us to roster. I’d much rather take savings with Drew Brees $9300, Philip Rivers $8500 or Mark Sanchez $6900 in my cash games.
CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACKS
1. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones
Everyone seemed to be on this stack last week as the Falcons were coming out of a bye against the Bucs. Now, hopefully, they’ll be off it. The concern with this pass game is always going to be weather and offensive line play. Well, the forecast for Charlotte Sunday is 56 degrees with no precipitation and 5mph wind. The offensive line, which handled themselves well against the Bucs, faces a decimated Panthers front that has PFF’s No. 23 pass rush. And if you thought Julio against Tampa was a mismatch, now he gets to face some combination of Antoine Cason, Melvin White and Josh Norman. The eruption from Ryan/Julio is coming.
2. Robert Griffin III and DeSean Jackson
If you watch Robert Griffin III’s game just before the bye, we saw a bit of a different Jay Gruden. He called read-options and bootlegs – in other words, he fit his scheme to RG3’s skill set instead of trying to shoehorn him into a pocket-passer a la Andy Dalton. That’s encouraging, and now the Redskins come out of a bye and get to host a Bucs pass defense that ranks near the bottom in nearly every statistical category. I like this stack for GPPs and I think Griffin can even be a naked option for cash games given his price of $7400.
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
1. General frustration with Bishop Sankey
Thankfully, I haven’t been on Bishop Sankey at all this year. Not during the season-long draft process and barely at all in DFS. Those that have been on him (season-long players especially) have been wildly frustrated, as his season-high in rushing yards is 61 and he has one touchdown. Well, it’s taken till Week 11, but the spot is finally here for Sankey.
On a Monday night home game against a Steelers defense that will again be without ILB Ryan Shazier (ankle) and SS Troy Polamalu (knee), I expect the 2-7 Titans to show up with their best performance since Week 1. A big part of that will have to be Sankey, as Leon Washington (hamstring) is banged up, Dexter McCluster (knee) is banged up and Shonn Greene was benched last week for fumbling at the goal-line. Sankey, who is averaging 16.7 touches per game over the last four, should see at least 15 carries against a Pittsburgh unit that ranks 22nd in YPA allowed (4.40). The most appealing part of this play is the price, as Sankey has sunk way down to $5300. Jerick McKinnon $5500 is the only other RB under $6000 I’d want to touch.
2. Travis Kelce’s monster opportunity
As of Friday morning, it looked like Chiefs starting TE Anthony Fasano (knee) will be out for Sunday’s home game against a Seahawks team that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Cue the band as this is the moment Kelce-salivaters have been waiting for. A freak talent that plays on 52.3 percent of the snaps should be closer to 90 percent in this game, which will obviously give him massive upside. We can project this because unlike a similarly underutilized tight end like Zach Ertz, Kelce is a plus blocker in addition to his pass-game upside. This Wednesday quote from Andy Reid equates to porn for me:
“At the beginning of the year, we kind of kept the package (for Kelce) smaller. Then we’ve added to it. He’s really kind of up to speed with the whole deal now.”
My strategy of paying up for one of the big-three (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas) has paid off big lately. I’ll be sticking with that for cash games, but I’ll have a lot of Kelce at just $5900 in GPPs. There are no other “value” tight ends I really want.
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
1. Julian Edelman vs. Colts CBs other than Vontae Davis
Colts RCB Vontae Davis, undoubtedly among the game’s top-three shutdown corners right now, projects to spend most of Sunday night on Brandon LaFell. The Colts have also been talking up the need to somehow slow down Rob Gronkowski. The one nobody is talking about? Julian Edelman. He’ll spend most of his time in the slot and opposite LaFell, quietly doing his thing much like he did in the Denver game (9-89-1) just before the Week 10 bye. Given this game’s over/under (57.5, the highest of the season), there will be plenty of room for Edelman to pile up a double-digit catch kind of night.
2. Malcom Floyd’s spot vs. Raiders
The Chargers carried a three-game losing streak into their Week 10 bye. Now they come out of it at home against the Raiders, the perfect spot to step up with a statement performance. The Raiders have no pass rush, and have CB D.J. Hayden (groin), Carlos Rogers (knee) and T.J. Carrie (ankle) banged up. I like Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, but we get the most savings on Malcom Floyd $5400, who hit Oakland for 5-103-1 when these teams met a month ago. Floyd’s cash game floor is higher than you thing – he has at least 50 yards in five straight games.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Robert Griffin III, Mark Sanchez
RB: Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Anderson, Jerick McKinnon, Bishop Sankey
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman, Kelvin Benjamin, Malcom Floyd
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
D: Chargers, Lions, Broncos, Browns