Levitan's Leverage: Week 15

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-12-19 17:35:36

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Much like Week 13, it’s relatively easy to make an attractive lineup this week. Unfortunately, we’re not being sneaky by going cheap at quarterback, taking the value at wideout and paying up for running back/tight end. Keep that in mind when trying to separate yourself from the pack in GPP lineups. For cash games, we don’t need to worry nearly as much about ownership percentages.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADES

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

This is a difficult spot for the Packers. They’re coming off a tougher than expected win over the Falcons, are on a short week and have to go on the road to Buffalo. The sharp bettors know how tough this is as evidenced by some early reverse line movement: The line opened at GB -6 and although more than 80 percent of bet tickets are on the Pack, the line has gone down to GB -4 at some shops. In other words, the $20 bettors are all over Green Bay but the five-figure bettors are on Buffalo. Putting crooked numbers on this Buffalo defense that features two stud corners (Stephon Gilmore and Corey Graham) is not easy anyway – opposing quarterbacks haven’t hit more than 20 FanDuel points since Tom Brady in Week 6. I’m on Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning if paying up at quarterback this week.

2. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos

Although C.J. Anderson is averaging a robust 146.0 total yards with five touchdowns over the last three weeks, his salary is only climbing gradually. So at $8000, he still figures to be a popular play. However, this is a shaky spot as Anderson’s ankle clearly wasn’t right last week as he hobbled off the field to get re-taped on at least two occasions. We also have a bit of a pendulum effect as the Broncos figure to swing back toward Peyton Manning this week. Peyton’s 20 pass attempts last week were his fewest since joining the Broncos and he didn’t throw a touchdown for the first time since 2010. I think this spot at San Diego sets up as more of a passing gameplan for the Broncos, especially with Julius Thomas (ankle) back and Demaryius Thomas (ankle) closer to 100 percent.

CONTRARIAN GPP STACKS

1. Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham

Drew Brees

Drew Brees is averaging 311.0 pass yards, 2.14 TDs and has a 96.8 pass rating at home this year. That includes some disappointing duds in the Superdome against Minnesota (Week 3), Cincinnati (Week 11) and of course Carolina last week. Shockingly going against the narrative, he’s been slightly better on the road with 301.0 pass yards, 2.16 TDs and a 101.3 rating. We could certainly argue that location doesn’t really matter anyway this week, as the Bears “defense” has folded up the tent and is on vacation for the winter. Over their last six games, they’ve giving up 22.7 FD points per game to opposing quarterbacks. But let’s be real – the best part of this stack is that no one wants to touch it. Even though Jimmy Graham ran a season-high 46 routes last week and saw 11 targets, he’s toxic after burying people two straight weeks. Brees was among the biggest landmines last week. The Bears have been getting killed by tight ends all year, giving up the most fantasy points in the league to them.

2. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant

From a game script perspective, I love the way this week sets up for Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. We know the Eagles give up 69.7 plays per game to opponents, third-most in the league. Raw possessions and snaps will be there. We also know this Eagles team has become pretty difficult to run against, as evidenced by zero 100-yard rush games against since Week 4 and a No. 8 rank in PFF’s team run defense grades. So if the Cowboys are going to beat the Eagles, they’ll likely to it through the air by attacking Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher with Romo and Bryant. If the Cowboys fall behind in this game at the Linc, they’ll be forced to pepper Dez with chances. This stack also makes sense from a point-per-dollar perspective, as Bryant is only the 10th-most expensive WR and Romo is the 10th-most expensive QB.

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Correlation spot for KC D and Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles

I absolutely love this spot for the Chiefs. The Raiders are a lock to let down after predictably showing up big last week in their Super Bowl against the 49ers. We’ve already seen them fall victim to a letdown, falling on their face at St. Louis Week 12, one week after getting their first win against these Chiefs. So we’ll have a Kansas City team out for revenge, which heightens focus, and one that’s coming off three straight losses and one that is playing in Arrowhead. If you’re not thinking about positive correlations when building lineups, you’re missing a key edge. One of the simplest ones is RB and D, as obviously the running game volume increases as defenses play better. Using this Jamaal Charles and KC D correlation is a core cash-game play for me. PFF ranks Oakland as the league’s No. 27 run-defense unit.

2. Donte Moncrief’s ascension up the depth chart

The Colts have finally come to their senses, replacing washed-up Hakeem Nicks (18 snaps last week) with physical freak Donte Moncrief (50 snaps). So we knew Moncrief would have some upside as the clear-cut No. 3 receiver for generational quarterback Andrew Luck. But things took an even more interesting turn this week as the Colts openly talked about shutting down a banged up Reggie Wayne (triceps, elbow, knee). Wayne isn’t on the injury report this week and is fully expected to start, but it wouldn’t be a total shock if his snaps were reduced in a game he breaks the franchise record for games played at 209. So it’s at least conceivable that Moncrief gets plenty of reps in two-wide sets. That’s important because now that Dwayne Allen is back healthy, the Colts are going to run a lot of “12” sets with Coby Fleener. Moncrief certainly carries volume risk, but I have no doubts about his effectiveness on however many targets he gets against a Texans secondary that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Johnny Manziel’s legs vs. the Bengals

Johnny Manziel

It’s not completely fair to compare Johnny Manziel, an improvisational runner, to the read-option that Robert Griffin III was so successful in as a rookie in 2012. But ex-Redskins OC turned Browns OC Kyle Shanahan’s ability to mold his offense to the skill set of a mobile, athletic quarterback is very encouraging. Manziel played 130 preseason snaps (roughly two games), rushing 12 times for 88 yards with a touchdown. He was also pretty sharp when he came off the bench cold against the Bills, capping an 80-yard touchdown drive with a designed 10-yard touchdown run out of the shotgun. In that game, Shanny called three bootlegs on JFF’s first five snaps – crucially showing the offense will be catered to the quarterback. Now Manziel gets a home game against a mediocre Bengals defense, has a healthy Jordan Cameron and an active Josh Gordon. Only needing 13.5 FD points to pay off his salary, I’d set the over/under on rush yards at 35 and rush touchdowns at 0.4. I’d also suggest you read Leo Howell’s tape breakdown of Manziel, which highlights how the Bengals got shredded on the ground by running QBs Cam Newton and Jake Locker.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES