Levitan's Leverage: Week 17

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-12-30 19:29:06

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A lot of DFS players are going to eliminate players from teams playing for “nothing” this week. That’s not going to leave them with very many options. While I agree on avoiding playoff teams with no seeding to play for (New England, Dallas, maybe Indy), I think eliminated teams still grinding are very much in play. A few examples of those squads include the Vikings, Giants, Dolphins and Bills. Here’s a game-by-game look at motivation:

Cleveland at Baltimore: Browns eliminated. Ravens need a win and help to make playoffs.
Dallas at Washington: Cowboys have zero motivation to win. If Seattle and Arizona lose, Dallas gets a bye even if they lose. Redskins eliminated.
Indy at Tennessee: Colts essentially locked into AFC’s No. 4 seed, although they insist they’re playing all-out. Titans eliminated.
New Orleans at Tampa: Saints eliminated last week. Bucs eliminated.
Philadelphia at NY Giants: Eagles eliminated last week. Giants eliminated.
Buffalo at New England: Bills eliminated. Patriots have clinched AFC’s No. 1 seed, might rest players.
Jacksonville at Houston: Jags eliminated. Texans need a win and help to make playoffs.
San Diego at Kansas City: Chargers make playoffs with a win. Chiefs need a win and help to make playoffs.
NY Jets at Miami: Jets eliminated. Dolphins eliminated.
Chicago at Minnesota: Bears eliminated. Vikings eliminated.
Oakland at Denver: Raiders eliminated. Broncos must win to earn first-round bye.
Arizona at San Francisco: Cardinals fighting for playoff seeding. 49ers eliminated.
Detroit at Green Bay: The winner of this game gets a first-round bye and the NFC North title. Loser could fall as low as No. 6 seed.
St. Louis at Seattle: Rams eliminated. Seattle must win to earn first-round bye.
Carolina at Atlanta: The winner of this game makes the playoffs and wins the NFC South title. Loser goes fishing.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The winner of this game wins the AFC North title. Both teams fighting for seeding.

All comments below refer to FanDuel pricing. The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.

FADES

1. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens

Torrey Smith is going to be a very, very popular play in every format this week. I’ll admit that at first glance, Torrey was on my short-list of wideouts because of his bargain $6700 price, how healthy he looked last week (5-59-2) and how many targets he saw (12). But after examining the situation further, I’m off it. The Browns’ run defense has eroded to the point where it’s the worst in the league. That’s led to an easy run-first gameplan from opposing offensive coordinators, something I expect Gary Kubiak to take after he called out his own run game this week. Another big issue for Smith is projected game flow. With the Browns starting Connor Shaw and the Ravens desperate to win, it could get ugly in a hurry – something that’s obviously bad for vertically-oriented big-play wideouts. The final concern for Smith is dominant shadow corner Joe Haden, who has a chance to return from his shoulder injury Sunday.

2. Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers

Most players will see Eddie Royal’s 10-94-1 line on 12 targets from Week 16, his $6000 price tag and a Chargers team that needs to win. But we should be very fearful of using an average talent like Royal in Arrowhead in late December. This Chiefs defense is giving up just 17.0 points per game at home this season, including holding Tom Brady to 14 points in Week 4 and the Seahawks to 20 in Week 11. Those were big games, and so is this one, as the Chiefs can still make the playoffs by winning and getting some help. They excel against the pass, ranking second in yards per game allowed and second in YPA. The Week 16 emergence of Dontrelle Inman certainly doesn’t help Royal’s projected targets, as now Inman, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd are all vying for Philip Rivers’ eye.

CONTRARIAN GPP STACKS

1. Teddy Bridgewater and Charles Johnson

Teddy Bridgewater

I actually like a Teddy Bridgewater/Charles Johnson stack for both cash games and tournaments. Playing as hard as any eliminated team over the last month, the Vikings won two straight home games and then fought valiantly in losses at Detroit and at Miami. Their chance to really “show out” comes in this home finale against a Bears team that’s a major threat to just mail it in and collect a check. Bridgewater has really come on of late, throwing nine touchdowns in his last five games and averaging 246.2 passing yards per game during that span. It’s not a coincidence that his improved play has happened right when Cordarrelle Patterson got benched and Johnson got promoted to an every-down role. Playing 95.8 percent of the snaps over those aforementioned five weeks, Johnson is averaging 7.0 targets. He’ll find far more opening this week against the Bears’ No. 31 pass defense than he did against Detroit (No. 13) and Miami (No. 4) in the previous two.

2. Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson

Aaron Rodgers has thrown one touchdown in the last two weeks, leaving the title hopes of season-long players in his wake. He also tweaked a calf in Week 16 and has a very difficult matchup against the Lions this week. Rodgers also remains very expensive ($9800). All this will lead to extremely low ownership, which is exactly what we want when trying to win a large-field GPP. Expect the Packers to take a pass-heavy approach in this one, as running against the Lions’ No. 1 rush defense simply isn’t going to happen. What could happen is Rodgers finding holes in a pass defense that hasn’t faced a front-line quarterback since Week 12, when Tom Brady hit them for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, the Lions have seen Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Clausen. It’s also worth noting that the Lions allow 15.6 points per game at home versus 18.1 on the road. This game is in Lambeau and the Packers have a healthy Vegas team total of 27.5.

SITUATION TO CAPITALIZE ON

Tight end scarcity and Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen

Rob Gronkowski might not play the whole game. Jimmy Graham’s shoulder is clearly an issue and the Saints might not show up. Travis Kelce is facing Eric Weddle and a Chargers defense that excels at defending the tight end. I don’t like to use players at Arrowhead (Antonio Gates). So once we strip all that away, we’re left with very few options at tight end. I like Coby Fleener (if we can trust that the Colts are playing to win) and Martellus Bennett (if we trust the Bears to play for Jay Cuter), but my favorite play is Greg Olsen. He’s in a dome, is coming off a 1-21-0 line which should depress ownership, had 5-61-0 on 11 targets against ATL last time, and is averaging 8.2 targets per game in Cam Newton’s last four starts.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Mike Wallace in a letdown spot for Jets

First, let’s think about the spot for the Jets. They essentially played their Super Bowl last week, putting up a massive effort in Rex Ryan’s last home game against the hated Patriots. It’s going to be really hard for them to show up in Sunday’s finale. So how will the Dolphins beat them? With the pass, of course. Just as it has all year, it makes perfect sense to avoid beastly DTs Sheldon Richardson/Muhammad Wilkerson and exploit the likes of replacement level LCB Darrin Walls and North Dakota State UDFA RCB Marcus Williams. It’s a welcome break for Mike Wallace, who has faced New England’s stout secondary and Xavier Rhodes the last two weeks. We also get one of this week’s few pass-game friendly weather conditions by using Wallace.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES