Levitan's Leverage: Week 3

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:20

Replacement players are the theme of Week 3. After seeing RG3, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles, Eric Decker, Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram all go down with in-game injuries in Week 2, there are a lot of adjustments to be made and value to be had.

I used a stars and scrubs lineup on Thursday night, highlighted by Khiry Robinson, Bobby Rainey and Brian Quick as the scrubs and Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham as the stars. I suspect lineups like this are the optimal way to go even for the Sunday games, especially in cash games.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.

CONTRARIAN FADES

1. Knile Davis (this entry assumes that Jamaal Charles is out)

Knile Davis was the No. 1 add of the week for season-long owners. For as long as Jamaal Charles is out, he’s going to get plenty of volume playing in the most RB-dependent scheme in the league. I’m well aware that he’s averaged 27.3 touches, 97.0 total yards and scored six times in the last three games Charles has been sidelined. The problem is that everyone else knows this too.

Therefore, our first problem with Knile for this week is ownership. All the season-long players think they’re going to be super-sneaky by using him. The second problem is price. Knowing that the public is well aware of Davis, the guys at Fanduel have bumped Davis’ price up to $7000 for Week 3. That’s an incredible $2100 more than Jeremy Hill, $2300 more than Khiry Robinson and only $500 less than Zac Stacy. The third problem for Davis is matchup. He has to go on the road to face a Dolphins front that is really emerging. They’ve graded out as PFF’s No. 1 run defense so far, holding Patriots tailbacks to 17-65-1 in Week 1 and Bills tailbacks to 26-96-0 in Week 2.

2. Darren Sproles

Darren Sproles fever is sweeping the nation. That’s what happens when you blow up on Monday Night Football for all the world to see, setting a career-high in receiving yards (152) and outplaying LeSean McCoy for the second straight week. Sproles is still only $6000 on Fanduel, meaning he’ll be in a ton of lineups this week as people chase their tails. It’s a classic letdown spot.

Sproles got to face the Jags and Colts in the first two weeks. The Redskins aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, but they are far better against the run than the pass (allowing just 3.18 YPC so far and are top-five against RBs in yards per touch). Although his first two weeks have been wildly impressive, Sproles remains a 5’6/190 No. 2 back that the Saints traded away for pennies this offseason. Now in his ninth NFL season, we know this passing back is not going to be a productive inside runner for an entire season. The regression back to expectation starts now. Danny Woodhead ($5900) is a similar back with a similar role now that Ryan Mathews (knee) is out, but he’d be a really contrarian play vs. Sproles the chalk.

3. Matt Asiata

The fans, Twitter, and the media all know it: Matt Asiata is not very good at running the football. The question now is if the Vikings know it. Well, they actually probably do know that Asiata (3.56 career YPC) can’t run, but they still keep him on the field because he is reliable with assignments and excellent in pass protection (11-of-11 in chances this season). However, the tide could be turning to freak rookie Jerick McKinnon. Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner admitted Thursday that both of his backs are going to play against the Saints Sunday, adding that he might use one more than the other if a “hot hand” emerges. We can be fairly certain that Asiata won’t be the one getting the hot hand because he’s just not capable. So the volume that he needs to return value on a $6200 price tag isn’t a lock. In that price range, I like Stevan Ridley ($6200), Joique Bell ($6800) and Terrance West ($5800) more.

CONTRARIAN GPP TWO-MAN GPP STACK

1. Kirk Cousins and DeSean Jackson or Niles Paul

People are going to pick on Kirk Cousins because he was mediocre at best in three starts last year. What they fail to factor in is that those games were in a gimmicky Mike Shanahan scheme that was built for Robert Griffin III. This Jay Gruden scheme is built for pocket passers like Cousins and Andy Dalton – who finished as fantasy’s No. 5 quarterback last year. Cousins also gets the pleasure of facing an Eagles defense this week that was the worst in the NFL against the pass last year and was one Allen Hurns drop away from being among the worst this year. Cary Williams just isn’t it.

The ideal GPP play would be to pair Cousins with big-play wideout DeSean Jackson, who is out for blood against the team that released him. The problem is that Jackson is coming off a shoulder sprain that has left him questionable. If D-Jax can’t go, Niles Paul is a nice part of the stack. A converted wideout and fluid mover, he’s doing Jordan Reed things like lining up wide and catching 1-yard fades in the end zone. He’d get a nice boost if Eagles rising star Mychal Kendricks (calf) is out (Editor’s Note: Kendricks has now officially been ruled out.). The Eagles have no depth at linebacker.

2. Geno Smith and Eric Decker

This one is going to be really lightly owned for two reasons. People are still believing last year’s narrative that Geno Smith is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and Eric Decker aggravated a hamstring injury in Week 2. But if Decker can play at somewhere near 90 percent this week, the strikingly improved Geno will bring solid upside against a Bears defense that threatens to fall apart without Charles Tillman (triceps). Note that over Smith’s last six games, he’s averaging 8.0 rushes for 41.6 yards with four rushing touchdowns.

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Mark Ingram’s hand injury

The Saints became a team more willing to run the ball beginning late last year. Considering how many nickel and dime looks Drew Brees creates, it’s a logical schematic shift. In the six games starting with Week 15 of last year, they’ve handed the ball to a running back 24.2 percent of the time. That includes trusting former West Texas A&M UDFA Khiry Robinson for 21 carries in two playoff games.

As we stand right now, a backfield that was four-deep last year is now down to two. Darren Sproles is in Philly and Mark Ingram (hand) is out. It’s Pierre Thomas and Robinson, with Pierre handling the majority of passing back duties and Robinson in the big back role. That’s a role that will yield roughly 10-15 touches as well as the goal-line work that allowed Ingram to score three goal-line touches in two weeks. I expect the 0-2 Saints to show up big in their first home game, which comes against the shell-shocked Vikings. There will be red-zone and goal-line opportunities. It certainly doesn’t hurt that coach Sean Payton said Robinson is “ready for the workload.”

The last piece of this puzzle is Robinson’s talent, which is certainly underrated. Per PFF, Robinson forced 15 missed tackles on 75 rushes last season, grading out higher than guys like Matt Forte and Reggie Bush in Elusive Rating. Robinson has a Chris Ivory-esque skill set, but is much better in the pass game (38 catches for 430 yards and 4 TDs as senior at West Texas in 2012). Give Robinson’s wildly low price of $4700, I’m going to have him in about 80 percent of my lineups. He’s my No. 1 value play of the week and it isn’t close.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

1. Brian Quick vs. Dallas

There’s likely doubt creeping into the DFS community about just how putrid Dallas’ defense is. Maybe they’re not the 76ers or Coors field after all? That’s definitely a possibility, but we can still safely presume this defense is a bottom-five unit simply based on talent alone. They have none of it. So it sets up an excellent spot for Brian Quick, who has clearly established himself as the No. 1 receiver on the Rams. Through two weeks, he has 14 catches on 18 targets. Kenny Britt as one catch on four targets. Quick’s price on Fanduel hasn’t come up at all though, as he’s still just $5200.

WHO I’LL HAVE THE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES