Levitan's Leverage: Week 5
I thought I “saw the ball” really well last week. I had Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Lamar Miller and Blake Bortles in just about all of my lineups. But I also faded Steve Smith across the board and had tons of Michael Crabtree, which meant I didn’t even turn a significant profit.
It’s a reminder that our fades have to be just as strong as the players we’re targeting. This week, I’m going back to the Steve Smith fade and feel good about fading the other two guys below as well.
The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.
FADES
1. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
I’ve been on the Travis Kelce bus since August, when he was arguably the best player in the NFL during exhibition games. I featured him in this Preseason Winners column, just after Jay Cutler. A perfect fit as a monster YAC guy with Alex Smith’s conservative arm, he’s on just about every one of my season-long teams (sick brag).
However, Kelce is no longer sneaky after he broke out with a Gronkian performance on Monday Night Football in Week 4. The entire nation saw the beast get unleashed for 8-93-1 on nine targets. The scary part is that since the game was Monday night, that performance is not factored into his insanely low $5300 price on FanDuel. Everyone – and I mean everyone – is going to have Kelce in their lineups this week.
Although Kelce is clearly a major part of the gameplan now, he’s still only a part-time player: 35-of-67 snaps Monday night, 17 routes run. This kind of usage (a crazy nine targets on 17 routes) does not lend itself to consistent box scores. Also, he has to face a 49ers team that is excellent against the tight end thanks to Patrick Willis’ presence. I can’t completely fade Kelce because his point-per-dollar projection is so massive, but I can just sprinkle him in very lightly. These Monday night heroes are always over-owned, especially when they’re buzzing and cheap. Larry Donnell ($6200), Heath Miller ($5900), Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4700), Clay Harbor ($5000) and Jordan Reed –if healthy at $5100 – are more contrarian cheapies at tight end.
2. Steve Smith Sr., WR, Ravens
I’ve been really stubborn with Steve Smith Sr. all offseason and through September. It’s bit me badly. But if a 35-year-old guy is going to sustain a 100-1716-8 pace, I guess I’m just going to have to bleed out. The deflections, the bombs off dropped snaps, the blood and guts will stop eventually – and when it does Smith is going to be really highly owned. He’s still “only” $7200 this week and will see some of Colts shutdown corner Vontae Davis Sunday. This is a guy that owns Demaryius Thomas – he’ll have no trouble owning Smitty on the snaps they face off against each other.
3. Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers
Eddie Royal is tied for the team-lead in targets, has four touchdowns in his last two games, and has a plus matchup against a bad Jets secondary. Yawn. We’ve seen this story before just one year ago, as Royal had five touchdowns in the first two games and three in the rest of the season. Rarely a targeted player in the end zone, PFF’s Mike Clay pointed out that Royal has four targets within 12 yards of the end zone all year in 2014 – and four touchdowns.
Ideally, the Chargers are a spread-the-wealth passing game that skews a little toward Keenan Allen and peppers Antonio Gates in the end zone. With Royal’s pricetag all the way up at $7300, I’m off him. I’d prefer TY Hilton ($6700), DeAndre Hopkins ($6900), Victor Cruz ($7000), Allen ($7000) and Kelvin Benjamin ($7100) in that range.
CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACKS
1. Austin Davis and Brian Quick
The general public is definitely aware of just how bad this Eagles secondary is. But they won’t be on two guys named Austin Davis and Brian Quick, which makes them excellent GPP plays in this spot. Quick, the third-year size/speed breakout receiver, won’t have any trouble lighting up Eagles RCB Cary Williams, PFF’s No. 90 corner among 97 qualifiers. Davis showed he’s capable of putting up numbers in good spots before the bye, when he went 30-of-42 for 327 yards with three TDs and two INTs against Dallas. Note that this Eagles defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed per game and 31st in touchdowns allowed, and the Rams project to be trailing here against a breakneck-paced Eagles team that allows tons of possessions to opponents. Davis’ pricetag of $7200 – significantly more than Blake Bortles or Mike Glennon and nearly the same as Eli Manning – will ensure his ownership percentage miniscule.
2. Mike Glennon and Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Editor’s Note: Seferian-Jenkins is listed as questionable to play Sunday
Vegas is projecting the Bucs to score 19 points this week, but also has them as a 10-point underdog at New Orleans. In other words, Mike Glennon is a good bet to get behind and start chucking it around against a defense that hasn’t come close to meeting its talent level yet. It projects to be similar to last year’s Week 17 game between the Bucs and Saints in New Orleans, when Glennon threw 41 times and finished with 219 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
There’s always upside for more with Glennon because of his willingness to be aggressive throwing the ball downfield. And without Mike Evans (groin), a lot of those throws are going to go to freak athletic specimen Austin Seferian-Jenkins, because top Saints CB Keenan Lewis is likely to shadow Vincent Jackson. ASJ played on 71-of-71 snaps last week and saw seven targets, which should be his floor in this one.
SITUATION TO CAPITALIZE ON
Rueben Randle’s box score
If you just look at Rueben Randle’s four-game line (19-156-1), you’d think he’s been a massive disappointment. That’s just not the case. Randle was inches from two touchdowns last Thursday night, highlighting a somewhat unlucky stretch that’s seen him score just once on seven red-zone targets. Now Randle gets a home matchup against a Falcons defense, which is what we all thought the Cowboys defense would be. They’ll also be without SS William Moore (shoulder). Check out this quote from former NFL head coach Brian Billick, who is the brother in law of Falcons head coach Mike Smith: “I can’t think of another team in the league that has less quantifiable talent on it defensively.” At just $5500, Randle is an ideal GPP play. I also like Markus Wheaton (if healthy) and Allen Hurns in that range.
MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT
Blake Bortles against Steelers defense
I used Blake Bortles in about 70 percent of my lineups last week and he paid off his $6500 salary with 1.56 points to spare. It could have been so much more. Allen Hurns tripped and fell while wide open at the 1-yard line, Cecil Shorts caused an interception by pulling up lame mid-route, and the gameplan was insanely conservative in a tough spot at San Diego. Bortles attempted just three passes more than 15 yards down the field.
Now Bortles is $100 less at $6400 and has a dream spot at home against a bad and banged up Steelers defense. In Week 4, Mike Glennon scored 19.08 FanDuel points against Pittsburgh. In Week 3, Cam Newton had 12.7. Week 2 Joe Flacco had 14.94 and Week 1 Brian Hoyer had 12.68. None of these four quarterbacks are playing at a high level at all, yet all scored enough to just about pay off Bortles’ salary this week. The last three weeks, opposing quarterbacks have completed 63.1% of their passes against the Steelers with 6 TDs and 1 INT. Cortez Allen and Williams Gay (a slot corner forced outside due to Ike Taylor’s injury) are both getting roasted.
Given this tasty spot, I’d expect OC Jedd Fisch to take the leash off Bortles a bit. We know he has a high statistical floor because he runs both spontaneously and off designed read-options/bootlegs. The best part of using Bortles with someone like top receiver Allen Hurns $5300 (Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee are both out) or Clay Harbor $5000 is the price savings.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Drew Brees, Blake Bortles
RB: DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Rashad Jennings
WR: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Quick, Allen Hurns
TE: Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Heath Miller, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
D: Lions, Chargers, Broncos