Levitan's Leverage: Week 7

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-10-20 03:52:37

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There is going to be a lot of chasing going on across the industry in Week 7. Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, Andre Holmes, Jordan Reed and Justin Forsett are among the players that were low-owned yet highly productive in Week 6, guiding users to massive GPP scores. Now these players have plus matchups once again and still have low pricetags. Everything points toward another productive Sunday for them. But of course, fielding a lineup of last week’s heroes is a sure way to give yourself a negative expected value in a tournament.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADE

Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens

Torrey Smith is back, baby! Well, maybe not. Yes, Smith went off for two touchdowns last week against the Bucs, who came into that game giving up the third-most points to fantasy wideouts. But Smith’s usage wasn’t any different than it had been during his maddening first five games, as he saw just five targets on Joe Flacco’s 29 attempts (17.2 percent). On the season, Torrey is seeing 15.9 percent of Flacco’s throws come his way compared to 24.5 percent of Steve Smith. Steve remains the go-to guy for Gary Kubiak, playing the Pierre Garcon/Andre Johnson role.

As we fast forward to this week, I suspect the public will now be licking their chops about using Torrey for “just” $6100 at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in the NFL. But they’ve actually been more reasonable against the pass, giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy wideouts. Torrey is a better bet to take a step back toward his early-season doldrums than use the Bucs game as a stepping-stone to go forward. Note that the Falcons yield the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs and the ground (Justin Forsett) figures to be the gameplan for Kubiak. I’d rather be on Davante Adams, Marques Colston, Justin Hunter, Andre Holmes, Odell Beckham, Michael Floyd and Keenan Allen in the $6500-and-under tier.

CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACKS

1. Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks

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Much like stars Peyton Manning (vs. ARZ) and DeSean Jackson (vs. SEA) two weeks ago, and DeMarco Murray (at SEA) last week, Drew Brees projects to be underowned this week in a tournament like the Sunday Million. Maybe even less than seven percent or so. People will see he’s likely without Jimmy Graham (shoulder), has a declining Marques Colston and is facing a Lions defense that is No. 1 in the league. They’re also licking their wounds from Brees burning them just about every time they’ve rostered him so far in 2014.

So we have a chance to get an absolute stud quarterback at low ownership in a game the Saints are projected to score roughly 23 points. As the Saints come out of their bye, I trust Sean Payton to have something nice schemed up for this Lions defense – he knew they probably wouldn’t have Jimmy Graham (shoulder) and his 9.2 targets per game the whole time. I’m pairing Brees with Brandin Cooks more often than Colston due to lower ownership (Cooks costs $1100 more) and the big-play ability we know he has (although we haven’t seen it yet as evidenced by 8.0 YPR). Cooks averaged 14.5 yards per reception in his three years at Oregon State and caught 24 touchdowns.

2. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones

Esteemed fantasy writer C.D. Carter likes to say when there’s blood in the streets, that’s when we invest. Well, it’s a bloodbath for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones right now. Not only was everyone burned by this duo last week (myself very much included), but they’re also on the road this week where they’re known to struggle badly. The bottom line is that much like the situation described above, it’s a chance to pair up two established, high-upside guys at miniscule ownership.

Yes, Julio projects to be shadowed by Jimmy Smith. And yes, this brutal Falcons offensive line is going to have its hands full. But the Ravens do rank 27th in the league in pass yards per game allowed and Vegas is projecting Atlanta to score 21 points. We know it’s not going to come from their inept run game. I’ll take my chances with Julio’s freakish natural talent against literally any corner in the league.

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Premature Crowning of Dallas

I can’t fathom a better spot for the Giants. The Cowboys, at 5-1 and crowned by the public after their upset at Seattle, are a near lock to let down this week. The Giants, coming off an utter humiliation in an island game at Philadelphia, are a near lock to come out with serious emotion. We’ve talked already about how game flow is key for Andre Williams because he’s a zero in the pass game. But if the Giants can get a lead in this spot, it’ll mean lots of chances for the violently-running Williams and plenty of red-zone opportunities. Everyone that got burned by Williams will be off him, making him a fine GPP contrarian play at $6300. He’s a pivot if you want to get off the chalky likes of Justin Forsett $6200 and Ronnie Hillman $6300.

2. Kirk Cousins Poor Real-Life Performance

With Kirk Cousins at the helm, the Redskins have lost four straight games. That’s what happens when you throw eight interceptions, many of them of the careless variety. So when I tweeted early this week the fact that Cousins is averaging 330.2 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns during this four-game stretch, I got a bunch of angry responses about how terrible he is. Well, he’s certainly not terrible in fantasy. Operating the pass-happy Jay Gruden scheme that made Andy Dalton a fantasy asset last year, Cousins is a tremendous bet to return value on a $7200 price tag in a home game against Tennessee. Yes, the Titans are a decent 15th against fantasy quarterbacks so far. But they’ve also only faced Alex Smith, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Brian Hoyer and Blake Bortles so far.

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

1. Packers Pass Game vs. Panthers Corners

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There are still people out there living in past, thinking this Panthers defense can find its 2013 form. It’s not happening. The absence of Greg Hardy has meant a bottom-third pass rush, which in turn has exposed brutal corner play. Both starters, Antoine Cason and Melvin White, are among PFF’s worst 15 at the position. Here are the FanDuel points scored against Carolina’s defense by quarterbacks over the last month: Andy Dalton 21.4, Jay Cutler 23.7, Joe Flacco 25.3, Ben Roethlisberger 15.9. Aaron Rodgers ($9700) is my top quarterback play regardless of price, Jordy Nelson is my top wideout, and I’ll have Randall Cobb/Davante Adams mixed in plenty as well.

2. Jordan Cameron vs. Jacksonville’s Defense

Last year, the Jaguars were the third-worst team in the league against tight ends. They’ve picked up right where they left off this time around. Here are TEs so far against Jax: Zach Ertz 3-77-1, Niles Paul 8-99-1, Dwayne Allen 4-43-1 and Coby Fleener 4-49-1, Antonio Gates 3-30-0, Heath Miller 3-46-0, Delanie Walker 3-57-0. Jordan Cameron, clearly over his shoulder injury as evidenced by his 128-of-137 snaps played and 12 targets over the last two weeks, is back as the focal point when the run-based Browns pass. I take the basketball-player athleticism/upside of tight ends like Cameron ($6100) and Jordan Reed ($5400) every time over the more “rugged” tight ends like Heath Miller ($4900), Owen Daniels ($5200) and Delanie Walker ($5900). Cameron is also a safer option than Travis Kelce ($5800) thanks to usage. Over his last two games, Kelce has played on just 55.4 percent of the snaps and ran a route on just 54.5 percent of those snaps.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES