Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Prediction & Picks
Lions vs. Chiefs Odds
| Lions Odds | +4.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 53 |
| Date | Thursday, September 7 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL regular season returns this evening with a highly-anticipated matchup between the Detroit Lions and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. EST on NBC. Oddsmakers have Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs priced as 4.5-point favorites as of this writing, with the total set to 53 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at Lions vs. Chiefs odds, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook, and nail down our prediction and picks for Thursday Night Football.
Detroit Lions
Goff, a tale of two cities
In 2022, Jared Goff was one of the best quarterbacks in the league when playing at home. In nine such games, he posted a 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and threw for 2,472 yards. On the road, he struggled to a 6-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and had only 1,966 passing yards in eight games. Goff’s stark home-and-away splits were evident during his first year with the Lions as well, in 2021.
Fortunately for Goff, he has a favorable matchup against the Chiefs to begin the new campaign. Last fall, the Lions threw 52% of their passes 1-10 air yards, which was the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. Against such passes, Kansas City ranked 32nd in EPA per pass attempt and 25th in success rate. Adding Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta in this past summer’s draft is only likely to increase the effectiveness of Detroit’s underneath passing game.
Lions defense ready to roar
In 2022, Detroit once again struggled defensively against wide receivers and tight ends. According to FTN, the Lions ranked 26th in DVOA against the opposing team’s top receiver, 28th in DVOA against the slot, and 26th against tight ends.
Facing a healthy Travis Kelce, the league’s top tight end, to start 2023 figured to be a difficult matchup. However, Kelce hyperextended his knee earlier this week in practice and is listed as questionable for this evening’s action. By all accounts, even if Kelce does play, he will be operating at far less than 100% health.
In the secondary unit, the Lions added Emmanuel Moseley, Cam Sutton, and CJ Gardner-Johnson this off-season. Moseley will not play this evening, but Sutton, who ranked 36th out of 120 players in coverage grade in 2022, per PFF, will suit up. Gardner-Johnson, the emerging leader of this defense, will also be on the field. It goes without saying that this unit is far more talented heading into 2023, even with Moseley not ready for action.
Kansas City Chiefs
Can Mahomes overcome offensive shortcomings?
Heading into this Thursday Night Football matchup, the vast majority of analysts are talking about the Travis Kelce injury and the impact that his absence could have on the offense. Fewer people are discussing the fact that Kansas City also has a brand new offensive coordinator on the sidelines in 2023, with Matt Nagy taking over for Eric Bieniemy, who left for the Washington Commanders.
Prior to last season, Kansas City traded away Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. If Kelce does not play or is not at 100% health, Mahomes will be throwing to a motley of unproven talent tonight – Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Sky Moore. Running the football has never been a major strength for this group. There are a lot of changes and new faces in the building for this contest, which is going to make life difficult for Mahomes.
Defense trending down
During the off-season, Frank Clark left for the Denver Broncos and safety Juan Thornhill went to the Cleveland Browns. In their season opener, the Chiefs will also be without Chris Jones, who is holding-out for a new contract.
Though the loss of Clark and Thornhill from this unit is notable, nothing holds water compared to the absence of Jones. According to Warren Sharp, the Chiefs have led the NFL in pressure rate across the last five seasons when Jones has been on the field. Their defense falls all the way to 28th in pressure rate when Jones is not on the field.
The secondary unit still projects well, with stars Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed at cornerback. However, the defensive line, as presently constructed, is one of the worst units in the entire league. Mike Danna, Tershawn Wharton, Derrick Nnadi, and George Karlaftis are going to have their hands full trying to stop the Detroit ground game in this matchup.
Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction and Picks
Across their final 10 games last season, the Lions went 8-2 and ranked second overall in EPA. Goff still exhibited poor decision-making with the football, at times, but overall played some of the best football of his career. This off-season, the front office found Goff some new toys, adding running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round and Sam LaPorta in the second round. They also brought over running back David Montgomery in free agency.
The market is, understandably, respecting Patrick Mahomes and company on their home field. Yet, it is difficult to overlook the fact that the Chiefs could be without their top pass-catcher and top defensive player in this contest – and that is after losing a considerable amount of talent during free agency. Goff has a very low floor when he plays on the road, but it is simply too difficult to pass up on the Lions moneyline at such steep odds on Thursday, given the state of the Kansas City roster.
PICK: Lions Moneyline (+190, Fanatics Sportsbook)