Primetime Parlay: Lions vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool simulates NFL contests thousands of times using RotoGrinders’ NFL Statistical Projections. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Sunday Night Football same-game parlay for the Lions vs Packers.
Sunday Night Football brings a “win and in” scenario for the Green Bay Packers. Their opponent, the Detroit Lions, needs a bit of help in the afternoon to have the same opportunity against their division rival. The final game of the NFL regular season should be a good one as we prepare for the playoffs. For us, we have another opportunity to sweat a same-game parlay ticket with the game.
Same Game Parlay for Lions vs. Packers
FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites at the time of this writing. The implied game total is 49.5 points. The Packers are understandably favored at historic Lambeau Field — a true home-field advantage in a primetime game affair.
Per SAO, 59% of betting tickets and 69% of the betting handle are siding with the Lions for this one. Meanwhile, 62% of betting tickets are on the over while a whopping 82% of money resides on the other side of the ledger. Are sharp bettors telling us to take the under?
For injuries, we don’t have much to worry about this evening. Justin Jackson, the third running back, is off the injury report while CB Jeff Okudah is questionable with an elbow injury. For the Packers, Christian Watson was cleared from the injury report and will play on Sunday night.
Per Kevin Roth, the weather is going to be brutally cold but the winds will be very light. The weather should not have much impact on the affair.
The playoff scenarios are relatively straightforward for this game. The Packers win the game and they are the seventh seed in the playoffs. If the Seahawks win their game in the afternoon and the Packers lose or tie, the Seahawks would take the seventh seed. For the Lions, they need the Seahawks to lose or tie to make Sunday night a true play-in game.
Now that the table is set, let’s start picking some props for tonight’s ticket.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Lions & Packers Props
Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
The Packers’ offense transformed after losing Davante Adams. With two capable backs in AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers can spend a good portion of the game upright handing the ball off. Against the Lions, this game plan would be prudent.
The Lions are the third-worst defense with regard to yards per rush attempt (5.3 YPA). Over the last three weeks, that number has ballooned to 6.6 YPA. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon both should be fed early and often throughout this contest. ParlayIQ projects this prop to hit more than 50% of the time.
Jamaal Williams Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
If we project the Packers to win this game and put a lot of pressure on the Lions’ defense, Detroit should be throwing in this contest to catch up. While Jamaal Williams had a banner day in a blowout versus the Bears last week, the Lions should not be playing keep-away against the Packers in Lambeau Field.
I don’t think Williams will be used that often late in the game and anticipate more of the passing game work to go to D’Andre Swift. With Justin Jackson also lurking to vulture some carries, I agree with ParlayIQ and think Williams is going to go under this total.
Christian Watson Under 52.5 Receiving Yards
Christian Watson comes into tonight’s game a little knicked up. With their playoff hopes alive, there wasn’t much doubt that the explosive young receiver was going to suit up.
That said, Watson hasn’t exceeded 50 receiving yards in the Packers’ previous four contests. Given the likely focus on the run game, Watson might not see as many targets. Further, the return of Romeo Doubs has cut into the fellow rookie’s workload, as well.
The Packers should be ahead against the Lions’ defense. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will need to force the ball around much. We take the under.
D’Andre Swift Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, if the Lions are behind in this contest, the role of the running backs will be pass-blocking and receiving. D’Andre Swift continues to see an expanded role as the most dynamic running back in the Detroit backfield.
Assuming we have a Packers’ lead in this script, I anticipate Swift will receive a decent number of targets in the passing game. With his playmaking ability, 25 yards is not asking much given the volume of targets he should receive.
Good luck this evening.
Lions vs. Packers Parlay Odds
- Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
- Jamaal Williams Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
- Christian Watson Under 52.5 Receiving Yards
- D’Andre Swift Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
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ParlayIQ presents the following price for tonight’s ticket:
FanDuel Sportsbook offers us a bit of a boost with the following price:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1041
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 5.2 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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