NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Lions-Packers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Lions vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 2-1 Lions head to Lambeau for an NFC North battle with the 2-1 Packers in what should be a very competitive and potentially high-scoring affair. The Packers have scored 80 points and allowed 62 points on the year, while the Lions have scored 72 points and allowed 63 points, just to show how similar these two teams are. The Lions will likely have David Montgomery available after missing last week, and the Packers are expected to have both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson active.
We have also have one of the best TE matchups so far this season with top rookies Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave both looking to build on already solid starts, and it’s also another chance for rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Jayden Reed to show out on a national stage.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lions vs. Packers Week 4
Currently, this game is sitting at a 45.5 total, with the Lions favored by 2.5 points. Even with the likely return of Jones and Watson for Green Bay, the Lions are still road favorites in the tough environment of Lambeau Field, and with how they performed in Arrowhead against the Chiefs Week 1, I think it is deserved.
Quarterback
Jordan Love has been excellent so far, with 8 total TDs and just 2 turnovers. His stats are even more impressive when you consider he hasn’t had Christian Watson available yet, and Aaron Jones missed the last two games. His confidence is sky high after orchestrating one of the best comebacks in Packers history, down 17-0 to begin the 4th quarter last week to win 18-17, and he is a cash game must play, in my opinion, as the fourth-most expensive player from this game getting two more top weapons back.
Jared Goff has also been great this year with 6 total TDs and 2 turnovers. He’s also the third most expensive player from this game making him an excellent cash game target with Love, as this game has a real potential for a shootout and if that happens, it will be hard-pressed to have a top lineup without both QBs. If you only have the salary for one of them in your main build, I’d go with Love as he’s cheaper, has more rushing upside, and I like the home QB in rivalry games, especially one getting back two of his top offensive weapons.
Running Back
With David Montgomery now expected to play I think he is a top cash game target at just $6,800, which may be the cheapest price for a starting RB we’ve seen in a while for a showdown slate. Montgomery has seen 17+ touches in each of the two games he’s played and has a great shot of finding the endzone at a fantastic salary. Jahmyr Gibbs is now more of a GPP target at $9,600 as his upside is much more capped with Montgomery active, but still someone you should have plenty of if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry).
Aaron Jones is expected to play, although he may be on a snap count, so with the potential of a limited workload along with the risk of re-injury, I think Jones is more a GPP play as the second-most expensive player. If you’re doing MME, he should absolutely get some captain spot love as he could easily have 100 yards and 2 TDs even on a snap count, and like Gibbs I would use him both as a stack with his QB and as a bring back on Lions stacks. AJ Dillon is too pricey to consider for cash games, and is merely a dart-thrown GPP play today.
Wide Receiver
Green Bay will have a lot of mouths to feed at WR with the return of Watson, as Doubs, Reed, and Wicks combined for 25 targets last week, and it’s safe to assume at least 5-6 of those will go Watson’s way even on a potential snap count. I’m more concerned with Watson’s snap count than Aaron Jones, so I will only be targeting him in GPPs. Romeo Doubs ($8,800) is the safest Packers WR to use in cash games as far as snap count and likely targets, while Jayden Reed is the best value at $5,600 and should still see 5+ targets. Wicks is most in danger of losing playing time to Watson, and just a GPP play at $5k.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up right where he left off last season, going for 18+ FP in all three games so far, and he’s rightfully the most expensive player from this game. He’s going to be hard to fit in cash games with both QBs, as you’re left with just over $6k per player remaining before using anyone in the captain spot. Basically, use Amon-Ra in a variety of GPP variations that include him as a stack with Goff and as a bring-back on Packers heavy teams, along with plenty of captain spot exposure.
For cash games, it’s going to come down to if you want both QBs or would rather go with the highest-upside skill player from this game, as using all three will require a cheaper captain spot player. Josh Reynolds put up a goose egg last week, and at $6,200 is a pretty strong GPP play that could see a recency bias dip in ownership. Marvin Jones has gone two games without a target and is completely off my radar outside of a couple GPP lineups if you’re doing MME, while Kalif Raymond is trending up with increased targets every week and is my preferred GPP Lions WR at $5,200.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta is an absolute stud, and after his breakout game last week (8-84-1), I’m expecting him to be one of the highest-owned players, especially as the 8th-most expensive option. He’s seen at least 5 targets in every game, has the speed to get open on deep balls, and is a top red zone target at 6’3” with defenses having to focus on stopping St. Brown and Gibbs. He’s a must-play for me in cash games, and someone worth using in the captain spot in plenty of your GPP lineups.
Luke Musgrave has had some big plays go just missed as Love has overthrown him a couple of times on huge chunk plays that could have led to TDs, so his final lines could be similar to LaPorta’s if he had connected on those and found the endzone at least once. This has led to his salary not increasing much, and at $6,400 he’s one of my favorite cash game values and players to stack with Love.
Defense/Special Teams
Like most showdown slates, both kickers and DSTs are under $5k, and are the best values to fill the final flex spot or two in your main build. The Packers DST ($3,600) would be my preference as the cheapest of the four, while either kicker are fine options at similar prices to each other.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
A lot of builds will depend on how you use St. Brown, as his top salary will force you into more Packers heavy builds with him as a bring-back. He and Jordan Love are my favorite guys to target in the captain spot for cash games, while LaPorta and Musgrave are my favorite sneaky GPP captains. Right now, most builds are ending as 4-2 Packers stacks, but with the shootout potential of this game and so many great playmakers on both teams, I would make sure to have a wide variety of build formats.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Jordan Love – Too cheap at $9,800, must play in cash games.
2. Sam LaPorta – Also too cheap at $8,000 as one of the highest upside DET skill players.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown – If you only go with one of him and Goff in cash games, St. Brown would be my choice.
4. Luke Musgrave – My favorite p/$ Packers skill player who is going to have a monster game sooner than later.
5. David Montgomery – Fantastic price at $6,800, and someone to have plenty of on lineups that don’t include Goff for max leverage.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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