Lions vs. Chiefs Props: Predictions for Patrick Mahomes & Two More Players
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Patrick Mahomes, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Sam LaPorta? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down some of his favorite props for tonight – Thursday, September 7, 2023.
Happy NFL Opening Week! The regular season is finally here, with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs getting things underway this evening at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. EST on NBC.
As of this writing, we are still awaiting final confirmation on the status of Travis Kelce, who hyperextended his knee earlier this week at practice. Defensive lineman Chris Jones seems increasingly unlikely to be in uniform tonight. Injuries open up opportunities on the player prop market, which has plenty of options available for bettors on Thursday. Below are three prop leans for September 7!
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Chiefs vs. Lions Props
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
- Sam LaPorta Under 3.5 Receptions
- Patrick Mahomes Less Than 286.5 Passing Yards
Valdes-Scantling Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling eclipsed this market number in only one of his final eight games last season, including the playoffs. The likely absence of Travis Kelce has the betting community looking for other ways to invest in the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack, but this market number is simply too high for a player that has traditionally been boom or bust throughout his career…with a lot of bust. Cornerback Cameron Sutton finished last season ranked 36th out of 120 qualified players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF, and is likely to see quite a few snaps against Valdes-Scantling this evening. The under has good value here.
LaPorta Under 3.5 receptions (-205)
The Kansas City Chiefs were not great against tight ends last year – ranking 20th in DVOA – but this is still an extremely high market number for a player making his NFL debut at the position. Tight ends notoriously struggle to produce in their rookie campaigns, with rare exceptions. Prior to the draft, Sam LaPorta was described as a poor route-runner, whose main strength was breaking tackles and speed to threaten the seam, per PFF. Willie Gay and Nick Bolton are two capable linebackers in coverage for the Chiefs, who are likely to keep LaPorta under this market number in his first career contest.
NFL DFS Pick’em Prediction
Mahomes Less Than 286.5 Passing Yards, PrizePicks
Patrick Mahomes is the guy at the quarterback position, following the retirement of Tom Brady. However, even Mahomes has yet to figure out how to catch his own passes. On Thursday, Mahomes is likely to be without Travis Kelce, or at least without a fully functional Kelce. At receiver, Mahomes has largely unproven commodities, who will be tasked with finding space against an improved Detroit Lions secondary unit. It would not be surprising to see Mahomes finish with a lackluster final line on opening night.
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