LoL Fantasy Grind Down: NA - Saturday, February 27th

by Airbudgoldenrec Last Updated 2016-02-29 19:12:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming NALCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace.

Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match

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Team Impulse vs. Team Liquid

Team Impulse							Team Liquid
			Record		4-8					Record		5-7
			Vegas Sprd		+162					Vegas Sprd		-200
			Avg. KP		67.2					Avg. KP		74.5
			Team Pace		0.82					Team Pace		0.79
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Feng	Procxin	Pirean	Gate	Mash		Players	Lourlo	Dardoch	FeniX	Matt	Piglet
Opp. Season	7	6	6	7	8		Opp. Season	6	4	4	4	6

This is an extremely important match for both Team Impulse and Team Liquid as we head into the final stretch of the spring split. Both teams are coming off 0-2 weekends last week and a victory for either could spark any chance at a late season run into the playoffs. Neither team is particularly good and while Team Liquid sports a more talented roster, they sit only 1 game ahead of TiP. If I’m going for anyone in this game it will either be star players like Fenix or Piglet, and punt plays like Procxin. Both Procxin and Dardoch rank in the top 3 of damage share for their team so if either one of them gets ahead, it could snowball into a huge lead for either side. Considering Team Impulse has the worst gold differential at 15 mintues, Team Liquid could be that team to snowball but their lack of proactive play in the solo lanes leaves a lot to be desired. I’m taking a look at TL players for sure and only really slotting in TiP players for a contrarian or punt play for this slate.

Team Impulse

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Feng (DK $5,700, AD $7,100) The weak link of Team Liquid seems to be Lourlo and while Feng hasn’t been a star in his own right, he has nice value in this slate. He has had some major duds but if he can get a high damage champion like Graves, he should be in line for a solid day as a punt/one-off on the Team Impulse side.

Team Liquid

Elite Plays

-Piglet (DK $7,700, AD $8,000) The discrepancy in price makes me lean towards Piglet in AD primarily but he has very high upside on both sites. He leads all ADC’s with an 82% kill participation so he’s often in position to acquire fantasy points. The bottom lane for TiP is exploitable with the weakness of Mash and Gate.

Secondary Plays

-Fenix (AD Only $7,700) A strong mid lane pool for this slate pushes Fenix out of the “elite” category but he is still a great play in AlphaDraft being only the 7th highest on the salary list at his position. He is receiving 4% more gold share than Pirean is for their respective teams and he has used that to output almost 100 more damage per minute than Pirean. He had over 32 points against TiP in their last bout so look for a similar figure in this matchup.

Echo Fox vs. Team SoloMid

Echo Fox							Team SoloMid
			Record		5-6					Record		7-5
			Vegas Sprd		+123					Vegas Sprd		-150
			Avg. KP		74.1					Avg. KP		61.8
			Team Pace		0.71					Team Pace		0.96
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	kfo	Hard	Froggen	BIG	KEITH		Players	Hauntzer	Svenskeren	Bjergsen	YellOwStaR	Doublelift
Opp. Season	9	9	8	9	9		Opp. Season	5	7	9	5	5

This is the premier matchup of the day featuring teams that appear to be heading in opposite directions. Team SoloMid dropped both games last weekend while Echo Fox is the hottest team in North America not named “Immortals.” The return of Froggen can’t really be overstated but he will have his toughest matchup of since coming back from his break and Bjergsen has been known to give the opposition a tough time. The issue with making a definitive call in this game is that we haven’t really seen this version of the Echo Fox team play any of the upper echelon teams.

On the other side of the rift you have TSM. A super talented roster that has failed to gel and execute in the macro game but they always have the fantasy potential to put up huge numbers. I did mention on the E-sports Grinders Live show, that I believe TSM should win this one but after further examination I think that’s a bit of a stretch to call outright. In fact, until we see TSM play like they aren’t in a state of disarray, their players carry some heavy risk. Both teams do sit in the top 4 in game length so there is certainly value on both sides expecting this one to scale into the late game but the team fighting for Echo Fox has been so strong recently, it’s hard to not be tempted to roster a player like Froggen. The guy has been outright insane holding a massive 36% damage share for his team along with an 89% kill participation, both of which are tops at his position. Even if you like the TSM chances to win, it’s such a close game that the value on Echo Fox players is actually better and secondary players like BIG and Hard (I thought those two in that order was slightly more tame than the reverse order) could be nice punt plays at the jungle/support positions.

Echo Fox

Elite Plays

-Froggen (DK $6,700, AD $8,000) This may be a bold call but I’m liking this play and I think the ownership here will actually be fairly high in cash games but it warrants strong consideration. Even if you like TSM to ultimately pull out the victory here, they have yet to do so in decisive fashion. Meanwhile all one has to do is just look at the fantasy totals Froggen has put up recently and it’s hard to deny that he has elite value in this slate even against Bjergsen.

Secondary Plays

-Hard (DK $5,500, AD $7,500) As I have mentioned before, this is one of the top punt plays at the jungle position for the day. He is averaging over 25 fantasy points across the last 4 games so even a notch under that should still be a win on value.

-BIG (DK $4,700, AD $7,200)

Team SoloMid

Elite Plays

-Doublelift (DK $7,600, $8,500) In spite of two losing efforts, Doublelift had 45 and 23 point performances last weekend. With the massive gold share (32.5%) Doublelift receives, he is so often put in position to pick up kills and assists regardless of the final outcome. He’s 35.8 ppg (DK) over the past 6 games.

Secondary Plays

- None – I just don’t have faith in TSM players hitting on value aside from Doublelift. Yellowstar is an option but a TSM stack will be tough to get much return on investment.

Immortals vs. CLG

Immortals							CLG
			Record		12-0					Record		8-4
			Vegas Sprd		-379					Vegas Sprd		+290
			Avg. KP		68.3					Avg. KP		67.0
			Team Pace		1.17					Team Pace		0.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Huni	Reignover	Pobelter	Adrian	WildTurtle		Players	Darshan	Xmithie	Huhi	Aphromoo	Stixxay
Opp. Season	3	3	3	2	3		Opp. Season	1	1	1	1	1

Will the reigning summer champs be able down to take the new powerhouse team in the NA LCS? On paper, CLG looks to have as good of a shot as anyone. Darshan may be one of the few top laners in the region that could possibly hold Huni in check on the splitpush front. Huhi has shown a lot of promise as the full time starter and Aphromoo is still one of the best supports in the region. All that sounds great but I question if they have the tools to stop the man that usually gets the action started for IMT, Reignover. CLG jungler Xmithie may have the 2nd best KDA at his position with a respectable 5.0 KDA. Unfortunately that doesn’t come close to the 12.0 KDA that Reignover boasts and I think he will be the hammer that shatters the CLG game plan. Because this looks to be a bit closer than your typical Immortals game it’s a bit easier than usual to get an IMT stack but that applies more to DraftKings than AlphaDraft. Despite the $3k gold lead that Immortals have on average, CLG may make it close enough to present some value on their side, potentially boosting the IMT value by even more with a possibility to rack up kills and assists into the mid/late game. I do fear going for either top laner as it could end up being a split push battle with low kill participation on both sides.

Immortals

Elite Plays

-Reignover (DK $6,900, AD $8,200) I prefer this one slightly more on DK than AD but it’s still a good play on both sites even with the dearth of options in this slate. He has 7 straight games with at least 26 points which is just above the value you are looking for at this salary.

Secondary Plays

-Adrian (DK Only $6,000) Going with him on DK more than AD but he has had at least 25 points in 5 straight games on that site so I like him to hit somewhere close to that number again on this slate.

CLG

Elite Plays

-None

Secondary Plays

-Huhi (DK Only $6,100) There is a pretty big difference on the two sites for this one and Huhi only really has value on DK. This is only a contrarian, one-off play but when CLG wins, Huhi tends to have huge games. If you like the upset chances, this could be a very solid play in tournament games.

NRG eSports vs. Renegades

NRG eSports							Renegades
			Record		5-6					Record		1-11
			Vegas Sprd		-354					Vegas Sprd		+273
			Avg. KP		72.8					Avg. KP		70.4
			Team Pace		0.83					Team Pace		0.77
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Impact	Moon	GBM	KonKwon	Altec		Players	RF Legendary	Crumbzz	Alex Ich	Hakuho	Freeze
Opp. Season	10	10	10	10	10		Opp. Season	8	5	5	8	7

As oddly as it sounds, Renegades actually looked like a better team against CLG than NRG did against Cloud 9. Synergy issues were expected when this NRG team was put together, but the struggles we have seen recently are far worse than we imagined they would be. Players like Impact and GBM were supposed to be teaming up to rise to the top of the region but it just hasn’t happened yet. The most alarming issue isn’t necessarily in their mechanical play, but it’s the macro play and inability to play around a team composition that they build in the draft. The Renegades train rolling into the rift may be the perfect cure for those woes as they can be described with a plethora of words however I prefer to just say: terrible. Sure, Freeze has looked solid at times, Crumbzz has sparked a few early leads, but this Renegades team has failed to perform in nearly every facet of the game. They are allowing the most points against at every single position by a substantial margin so you have to consider rostering some of these NRG players despite the recent struggles they have experienced.

A couple of important substitutions should be noted. LOD will be replacing Altec for NRG at the ADC position and Seraph will replace RF Legendary for REN in that top lane spot. The biggest repercussions from a fantasy perspective will be the slight value hit that Impact takes against Seraph. RF Legendary has been noticeably outclassed by every other top laner in the NA LCS for Renegades but Seraph was pretty solid during his stint with Team Impulse posting a 7.8 KDA. This may not affect the outcome of the game but I might be fading on Impact even if I stack NRG. The other big no-no for me on the NRG side will be Moon. Speculation of his departure has been stirring for weeks and his 12 ppg average on DraftKings makes you question if he can actually hit value at the highest salary among junglers. With the variety of jungle players I’m considering, Moon just won’t make the cut. Hopefully NRG will take advantage of the great matchup and show a glimpse that they can be the team most of us thought they would be.

NRG eSports

Elite Plays

-GBM (Prefer AD $7,800) This is still a fine play on DraftKings but he sits at $8,300 there so he will need to have an absolute monster of a game to hit on value at that price. On AD he will be a safe play because he will almost certainly have a very good game. The chance for a crazy high score may be mitigated by the speed with which NRG can handle Renegades.

Secondary Plays

-Impact (DK $7,400, AD $7,500) I like this play on AD more than DK but I don’t love it. I think Impact has potential for a huge game but the floor is still a question mark considering this team’s recent play. Either way, he has a good shot at that 10+ assist bonus against such a weak opponent.

-LOD (AD only $7,600) This play is only available on AD as he has not been added to the player pool for DK at this juncture. Freeze will be a tough lane opponent but when NRG is wrecking in the teamfights, LOD should be in position to put together a nice game at great value.

Renegades

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-None – You just don’t want to do this to yourself unless you want an extreme contrarian play for tournaments. If you go that route, a one-off like Hakuho will present less risk than a player like Freeze but they are only really viable in that scenario. Not ideal by any means for cash games.

Cloud 9 vs. Dignitas

Cloud 9							Dignitas
			Record		8-4					Record		4-8
			Vegas Sprd		-422					Vegas Sprd		+318
			Avg. KP		67.8					Avg. KP		64.3
			Team Pace		1.02					Team Pace		0.76
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Balls	Rush	Jensen	Hai	Sneaky		Players	BillyBoss	Kirei	Shiphtur	KiWiKiD	Apollo
Opp. Season	4	8	7	6	4		Opp. Season	2	2	2	3	2

These two teams have a flair for the dramatics so we should see some fireworks in this one. It may actually come down to which team capitalizes on the others throw at Baron as both teams have a tendency to take questionable chances at that objective. For fantasy, it should be one of the top games of the day for big fantasy numbers on both sides of the rift. If it does become a one-sided affair, it will most likely favor Cloud 9 and their aggression once they get the lead is only fun to watch, but it’s fun to have them in your daily fantasy lineup. The biggest fear with rostering Team Dignitas players is their lack of early game pressure. C9 is 2nd in gold differential at the 15 minute mark with an average of +1,635 with CLG sitting in 3rd at +476. The biggest mismatch is in the jungle with Rush going up against Kirei who has really struggled to expand his champion pool and find success on a champion not named Elise. Rush has been on a tear lately with 77 total fantasy points (DK) over his last 2 games, both of which he exceed the 30 point mark. He will likely hit value so paying up for him is a strong play and my only hesitation will be picking him over a player like Reignover who is just a notch below in salary but has similar upside. Balls has also been playing great lately and BillyBoss has been inconsistent at best. Not much needs to really be said about Jensen because he is awesome and Rush has been playing around his mid laner so well, they are bound to team up for a few kills early on in this one.

Team Dignitas is certainly a pesky foe, but C9 is probably one of the hottest teams in the region right now and if they steamroll the early game, we could see some big numbers pop up on their side. The first matchup was a low scoring affair with only 18 total kills but both teams are playing at a different level and C9 seems to have figured out how to play around an aggressive, gank-heavy jungler like Rush.

Cloud 9

Elite Plays

-Jensen (DK $8,300, AD $8,600) – Despite an underwhelming performance (15.7 points DK) in the first matchup against DIG, he has been on a huge run lately with a couple of 45+ point performances last week. The jungle mismatch should net him some early kills to help him snowball into the mid game. One of the safest high ceiling plays of the day at this position.

Secondary Plays

-Everyone Else – I really like C9 in this slate so getting some combination of any two players should net a huge return as this team continues to roll with their aggressive playstyle.

Dignitas

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-None – I gave some consideration to Shiphtur here but I’m banking on Dignitas falling behind early yet again and I don’t see C9 stepping off the gas for this one. Even so, Shiphtur is the only one with much value at $5,700 on DK and $7,400 on AD.

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