LoL Fantasy Grind Down: Thursday, February 25th

by Airbudgoldenrec Last Updated 2016-02-27 02:32:13

Welcome to the RotoGrinders LoL Grind Down! These articles will cover everything you need to know for playing League of Legends fantasy including defense vs position, projections, vegas odds, and detailed analysis.

Also included is the RotoGrinders original statistic pace — a higher pace means bloodier games, so when two teams with high pace play, expect a bloodbath!

Vegas odds come from pinnaclesports.com, team aggregate projections are the total AlphaDraft points projected for all five members, and team slot projections are projections for the actual team pick in AlphaDraft points. Efficiency is also mentioned, which is calculated as ( Projected Points / Salary ) * 1000, and represents how much bang you’re getting for your buck.

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G2 Esports vs. Elements

G2 Esports							Elements
			Record		9-3					Record		4-8
			Vegas Sprd		-491					Vegas Sprd		+361
			Avg. KP		69.4					Avg. KP		69.3
			Team Pace		1.07					Team Pace		0.76
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Kikis	Trick	Perkz	Hybrid	Emperor		Players	Steve	Gilius	Eika	sprattel	Mr RalleZ
Opp. Season	9	9	8	9	8		Opp. Season	4	3	2	4	2

The clock seems to have struck midnight in a big way for the hopeful Elements team as they have only secured one victory over the past 4 weeks. Not that this is a shock to anyone as they were projected to be one of the worst teams in the European region, but the encouraging signs of life at the start of spring have fizzled out entirely. After dropping games to both Origen and Giants, Elements is struggling to find an identity and without any real star players, it will be hard for them to find wins going forward. On the other side of the rift G2 has not been without flaws of their own. Faltering late against a struggling Fnatic team, primarily due to the fact that they allowed Rekkles to pick Kog’maw for some unknown reason, was not a damning loss but their opportunity to secure themselves as the unquestioned kings of EU took a minor blow. Despite G2’s loss a week ago, these teams are clearly trending in opposite directions and star players like Perkz and Trick will look to feast on this Elements squad with their untenable aggression and mechanical superiority. G2 thrashed Elements in the first week of the season in a 26 minute match that featured 13 kills and a 15,000 gold lead by games end for G2 with Perkz leading the way on Ahri for a 5 kill/6 assist performance. Look for more of the same on Thursday.

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

-Trick (DK $7,300, AD $8,300) – Only one team (Roccat) gives up more kills and assists to opposing junglers than Elements while Trick leads all EU junglers with 99 total assists through 12 games.

-G2 Team (DK $6,200, AD $3,800) – One thing is for sure: You do not want to end up with a losing team in your lineup. The point discrepancy is massive so taking a heavy favorite like G2 is worth paying up for as they are the first place team in the region against one of the worst teams in Europe.

-Perkz (DK $8,400, AD $8,600) – Prefer him more in AD than DK for this slate but his dominance thus far can’t really be overstated. He is averaging more fantasy points than any mid laner in the region and he has a favorable matchup against Eika.

Secondary Plays

- Basically everyone not mentioned above!

Elements

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-MrRallez (DK $5,800, AD $7,400) – This is an interesting contrarian flex option. On one hand MrRallez has impressive fantasy results lately averaging almost 20 ppg. He also leads his team in both damage % and kill participation (72.9%). On the other hand, playing against G2 will have Elements reeling and it will likely be all on MrRallez’s shoulders to carry. Proceed with caution due to matchup.

Giants Gaming vs. Vitality

Giants Gaming							Vitality
			Record		2-10					Record		9-3
			Vegas Sprd		+491					Vegas Sprd		-722
			Avg. KP		73.3					Avg. KP		68.6
			Team Pace		0.74					Team Pace		0.74
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Atom	BetongJocke	xPePii	GODFRED	Adryh		Players	Cabochard	Shook	Nukeduck	KaSing	Hjarnan
Opp. Season	2	2	3	2	3		Opp. Season	8	8	9	8	9

Vitality is coming into this week after 2 huge victories last week over a couple of upper echelon teams in H2k Gaming and Unicorns of Love. They have now surged to the top of the standings alongside G2 and H2k but more importantly, Vitality players are now providing a bit more as far as fantasy value. Early on this spring, Vitality played a very passive style that simply choked out resources by using superior vision control and lane dominance. Recently, they have been more assertive and willing to fight on the backs of carry players like Nukeduck and Cabochard. Don’t get me wrong, they are no G2 when it comes to fantasy juggernauts, but Cabochard in particular has been a fantasy monster with 3 straight games of 34 or more points (Draftkings) and at great value considering his salary never exceeded $6,400 during that stretch.

Speaking of fantasy juggernauts, how about those Giants am I right? Okay, so the Giants aren’t a good team by any stretch but they are 2-2 over the past two weeks and they have actually provided a bit of boom or bust fantasy value to the people willing to sell their soul and put them in their lineup. Two thumbs pointing at this guy. In the right matchup, xPepii has been pretty good of late and his salary will almost always be in the lower tier of mid laners. Over the past 4 games, xPepii is averaging a tick over 27 fantasy points per game (DraftKings) with 3 such games exceeding the 33 point threshold. For reference, Origen’s highly touted mid laner PowerOfEvil has 1 such game this season while god-like Fnatic mid laner Febiven has 3 games that have eclipsed that mark. In matchups like this however, the floor for xPepii is dangerously low but going forward he is definitely a player to watch for with games against Origen and Roccat on the horizon.

Giants Gaming

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

Probably not. I’m tempted to mention xPepii but it’s likely he just gets smothered by Nukeduck and Shook which will ultimately limit his upside too much to net value.

Vitality

Elite Plays

-Cabochard (DK $7,500, AD $8,100) – No top laner has been quite as dominant as Cabochard over the past few weeks as I mentioned previously his numbers have been outstanding. No teams surrender more kills to opposing top laners than Giants.

-Shook (DK $7,200, AD $7,700) – After an inconsistent start to the season, Shook has been very consistent of late and his kill participation is the highest among his teammates at 76%.

Secondary Plays

-KaSing (DK $6,300, AD $7,300) – If daily fantasy e-sports awarded points for warding, KaSing would always be an elite play. But alas, they do not so here we are. With several lopsided matchups on paper this week, securing one of the top tier supports should be a priority as the discrepancy between losing and winning supports is usually quite large unless the game is an even matchup and extends into the very late stages. Not elite, but there is certainly value considering his high floor.

H2k-Gaming vs. Fnatic

H2k-Gaming							Fnatic
			Record		9-3					Record		7-5
			Vegas Sprd		-255					Vegas Sprd		+181
			Avg. KP		73.4					Avg. KP		61.8
			Team Pace		0.81					Team Pace		0.81
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Odoamne	Jankos	Ryu	VandeR	Forg1ven		Players	Gamsu	Spirit	Febiven	Klaj	Rekkles
Opp. Season	1	4	5	5	5		Opp. Season	3	1	1	1	1

Coming into the Spring Split many would have thought that this matchup would have been a battle between two teams duking it out amongst the top 3 and while it won’t quite live up to that hype at this juncture, this will be a highly anticipated battle. It’s tough to call Fnatic a disappointment considering the top tier players they lost in Reignover and Huni but underwhelming would still be a good way to describe them.

Star players like Febiven and Rekkles have been great at times but their tendencies to disappear from games has not only hurt the team, but damaged some of their fantasy potential as well. For all 3 of Rekkles’ 30 plus fantasy performances, he has 3 games with 18 or less points to go along with it (Draftkings.) Febiven has been touched by the same curse after a 4 game stretch averaging 33 ppg, he massively underperformed against Splyce last Friday with only 4.3 fantasy points. This disappointment has trickled down to the secondary players like Gamsu and Spirit both of which have been wildly inconsistent. The support change from NoxiaK to Klaj seemed to have helped but Fnatic will need to step their game up quickly as the schedule in front of them beefs up.

H2K has gone through some adversity as well but they look to be back on track with the return of star mid laner Ryu. The loss to a surging Vitality team was rough but a bounce-back win over Origen was a sign of good things to come as Ryu dominated on Leblanc with the help of Jankos returning to one of his favorites, Lee Sin. The good news for H2k is they basically have an advantage in every lane against Fnatic. Yes, if any mid laner can go toe-to-toe with Ryu it just might be Febiven as he and Fnatic did manage to hand H2k a loss early in the season but Gamsu’s inability to play top lane carries not named Olaf will likely hurt their chances. That and the fact that Spirit is finding new ways to die in every match will probably be the reason why the solo laners for Fnatic fall behind early. Spirit has managed to die 13 times over the past 3 games without securing a single kill in any of those matches. The saving grace for players on both sides is that we could be in for a long back and forth battle between these two and both teams are in the top 4 in game duration as well as kills per game. I will still be heavily favoring H2k in my lineups for this slate as they currently have incredible value.

H2k-Gaming

Elite Plays

-Jankos (DK $6,500, AD $8,200) – Read above to see how bad Spirit has been of late and then you will see why Jankos is in line for a big day. Not only do his lanes have the advantage but he himself should be able to outclass Spirit.

-Forg1ven (DK $7,600, AD $8,600) – Forg1ven is probably the most coveted player on H2k for fantasy considering his upside and value on this slate. Love this play and I consistently find him in my lineup when experimenting with a few different ones.

Secondary Plays

-Odoamne (DK $6,700, $8,400) – So this is one of the largest differences in salary between the two sites anyone has seen and it will lead to huge ownership numbers for Odoamne on Draftkings. It’s likely for good reason because he has elite fantasy potential so he may be more of a fade on Draftkings but a buy candidate for AlphaDraft.

-Vander (DK $5,600, AD $7,400) – This is a price difference that will lead to massive ownership percentages on DraftKings but I’m more bullish on Vander than I am for Odoamne. He is averaging almost 10 assists per game and even if Fnatic puts up a fight, I still expect H2k to pull out the victory and Vander to net a high number of assists.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Febiven (DK $6,500, AD $7,800) – If you are going for a G2 or VIT stack, Febiven is a nice fill-in for the mid lane spot. He always has high upside potential but he has shown to have a lower floor than we initially anticipated. He still has a respectable 70% kill participation and ranks 4th in both kills and assists among mid laners. Fnatic did manage to pull off the upset the last time these teams faced off so they will need everything they can get out of their star mid laner.

Splyce vs. Origen

Splyce							Origen
			Record		4-8					Record		6-6
			Vegas Sprd		+222					Vegas Sprd		-280
			Avg. KP		74.1					Avg. KP		67.8
			Team Pace		0.66					Team Pace		0.82
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Wunderwear	Trashy	Sencux	Nisbeth	Kobbe		Players	sOAZ	Amazing	PowerOfEvil	Mithy	Zven
Opp. Season	7	7	4	3	4		Opp. Season	5	5	6	7	7

Welcome to my least favorite matchup of the day! The fact that this isn’t a surefire projected win for Origen is alarming to say the least. Sure they are the favorites and Splyce has done very little to convince viewers they are anything but subpar however they at least have an identity of being a below average team with moderate talent. Origen on the other hand came into the season with big expectations as they “upgraded” (emphasis on the air quotes there) at the mid lane position subbing in PowerOfEvil for xPeke. The change has been anything but an upgrade as POE has failed to deliver in almost every facet of the game. He is currently sporting a very low kill participation rate at 58% and is only representing 25% of his team’s damage share which puts him in the bottom half of the league in both categories. Not only is he a poor choice for daily fantasy lineups, but the matchup isn’t even that great despite the general talent discrepancy between the two teams. Splyce is in the middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed versus mid laners and they even held Febiven to under 5 fantasy points last week.

As much as I usually love a back and forth, sloppy matchup for daily fantasy, this is a dangerous matchup. I think it’s almost fair to treat Splyce as an equal to Origen as far as recent play goes so I’ll be favoring them in my lineups on in some instances. Even Origen’s best player, ADC Zven, is only averaging 17 ppg over his last 4 matches which is even lower than Splyce ADC at 21 ppg.

Splyce

Elite Plays

-Sencux (DK $6,000, AD $7,700) – I really didn’t want to do this at first glance but looking at it closer, I really think Sencux can reach elite value and the return on investment could be really high. He wasn’t dominant by any means in the victory over Fnatic but he was very good. Origen has struggled mightily in the mid lane and Sencux does have a very high damage % and kill participation total for his team. He’s high on my list for contrarian/GPP lineups.

Secondary Plays

-Trashy (DK $4,900, AD $7,300) – If you are buying what I’m selling about this being a fairly even matchup, Trashy is a nice “punt-play” for the jungle position. He was at the same salary last week against another struggling team in Fnatic where he put up over 30 fantasy points. Even a notch lower would still be a great return.

Origen

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-SoaZ (AD only $7,400) – Not touching SoaZ for this slate on DK but he has interesting potential on AD. I don’t see his ownership being very high so he’s a possible tournament play at that value. His lane opponent Wunderwear is by far the worst player on Splyce so Origen may look to the top lane for SoaZ to carry more weight in this one.

-Zven (DK $8,200, AD $8,000) – A player of Zven’s caliber is almost always worth at least consideration when the matchup is anything better than bad. He has struggled lately averaging only 18 fantasy ppg over his last 4 (DK) but he is still the primary damage threat on this team.

Unicorns of Love vs. Roccat

Unicorns of Love							Roccat
			Record		8-4					Record		2-10
			Vegas Sprd		-370					Vegas Sprd		+284
			Avg. KP		66.1					Avg. KP		67.6
			Team Pace		0.91					Team Pace		0.79
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Vizicsacsi	Rudy	Fox	Hylissang	Steeelback		Players	fredy122	Airwaks	Betsy	extinkt	Tabzz
Opp. Season	10	10	10	10	10		Opp. Season	6	6	7	6	6

On paper, this match should be a rout favoring the Unicorns side. They have the better record and arguably the stronger mechanical skill but there is no question that they have better team synergy. Having said that, I don’t believe Roccat to be as bad as their record reflects. This Roccat team has identifiable strengths and weaknesses that, if capitalized on properly, can lead them to victory. The problem for Roccat is that they rarely DO take advantage of their strengths which is the early game. Mid laner Betsy continues to have one of the highest gold advantages through 15 minutes and he even bullied Fox around early the last time these two teams met. There are a couple of key roster moves to note in this game as well. The biggest change is Rudy being pulled in a far less heartwarming fashion than covering his final kickoff like his Notre Dame counterpart. Loulex ,cringe, will be replacing him which is, from a fantasy perspective a downgrade, but he is essentially the definition of serviceable.

Meanwhile Roccat is subbing in former Fnatic support NoxiaK for extinkt. The synergy with Tabzz in the bottom lane wasn’t something that really clicked for Roccat so from a skills standpoint it looks like an upgrade. Overall this is the sort of potential fantasy goldmine we look for. Both teams are in the top 5 as far as game length and the early game metrics for Roccat are much better but UOL is a top tier late game team by the same metric so we could see a back and forth bout with kills/objectives traded back and forth.

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Vizicsacsi (DK $7,600, AD $7,400) – Typically Vizicsacsi has been an elite play looking at previous slates. His salary has generally ranged between $5,900 – $7,400 which made the return on investment very high while averaging 24 ppg on Draftkings. For this slate he does have a strong matchup advantage making him a nice play but the added variable of yet another new jungler, and his fantasy slump last week has me shying on calling him “elite” for this slate.

Roccat

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Tabzz – (DK $5,800, AD $7,300) – I’ve been a big fan of Tabzz as an addition to the team simply because from a skills standpoint he is a massive upgrade over the putrid Safir. Now that he will have NoXiaK by his side, his upside increases slightly and the nature of this game could put him in position to put up solid numbers. I’m not putting too much weight in the previous matchup between these teams because it was the first game of the split for Tabzz and he was working with a different support. He has nice value in the flex spot for both sites.

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