LoL Fantasy Grind Down: Thursday, March 10th

by Airbudgoldenrec Last Updated 2016-03-11 15:16:00

Welcome to the RotoGrinders LoL Grind Down! These articles will cover everything you need to know for playing League of Legends fantasy including defense vs position, projections, vegas odds, and detailed analysis.

Also included is the RotoGrinders original statistic pace — a higher pace means bloodier games, so when two teams with high pace play, expect a bloodbath!

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Fnatic vs. Giants Gaming

Fnatic							Giants Gaming
			Record		8-6					Record		2-12
			Vegas Sprd		-750					Vegas Sprd		+505
			Avg. KP		63.6					Avg. KP		73.3
			Team Pace		0.80					Team Pace		0.74
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Gamsu	Spirit	Febiven	Klaj	Rekkles		Players	Atom	BetongJocke	xPePii	GODFRED	Adryh
Opp. Season	8	8	9	8	9		Opp. Season	1	4	5	5	5

What a difference a couple of weeks makes right? Fnatic looks to be a team on the rise after they managed to make their way to the IEM Katowice finals while Giants made a flurry of roster changes in a last ditch effort to improve before the Spring split ends. For Fnatic, we may be ready to finally buy in on some of the talent for fantasy value after watching them pull things together on the international stage. Spirit was the most notable improvement for Fnatic especially with his performance against RNG where he netted 83.3 fantasy points (DraftKings) in that 3 game series. He finished the series with 10 kills on top of 24 assists while only dying 5 times. Personally I think jungle is a spot where you can find value in the secondary tier so this particular slate he could be a fade but a stud mid laner like Febiven is definitely on my radar. Going forward the solo laners of Fnatic should have increased fantasy potential with the improved play from Spirit.

While Fnatic is steadying the ship, the Giants are starting to shake things up more than ever with a few roster changes. The most notable upgrades are at jungle and ADC with Korean imports Wisdom and SONSTAR filling those roles for Betongjocke and Adryh. SmittyJ will also be replacing Atom in the top lane. The value still lies in xPepii as a contrarian play but the improvement in other roles may take a bit of the pressure off of xPepii to get himself in better position to carry. Ultimately, the Giants aren’t much more than contrarian or punt plays but xPepii is averaging 25.4 fppg over his last 4 games so his potential is still quite high for a punt play in the flex spot at only $5,500 on DK and $7,100 on AD. I’m still probably holding off on that, but its an option to consider if you want to find some sleeper value in a tournament lineup.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

-Febiven (DK $8,500, AD $7,900) – I really like this play on AD but I still think he is a very high ceiling cash games play on DK as well. Febiven turned in a strong performance at IEM leading all mid laners with 58 kills over the course of 13 games. If he can do that against international teams, he should have a field day against Giants.

-Klaj (DK $6,500, $7,200) – Rarely do I look for one of the top priced supports to fill that slot in my lineup because there is often value in the lower tiers. This slate I view Klaj as a tier of his own at the support role. The mid game fights for Fnatic were great at IEM (two games with 16 assists against RNG) and he has the best chance to exceed the 10+ assist bonus of anyone at the position. He’s quickly becoming a playmaker on Fnatic and though his aggression has led to some unneccesary deaths, the fantasy value is still boosted by that aggression.

-Fnatic Team (DK $6,300, AD $3,800) – This is probably the most lopsided match of the day so I’m taking the sure thing with Fnatic if I can. Good teams against Giants tend to be the highest scoring team of the day.

Secondary Plays

-Spirit (DK $7,400, AD $7,700) – I called for Fnatic to unleash Spirit at IEM and they did just that as he averaged more kills per game than any jungler at the tournament. I think there are a few junglers I prefer on DK over him, but he’s a safe play for cash lineups.

Giants Gaming

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

H2k-Gaming vs. Roccat

H2k-Gaming							Roccat
			Record		11-3					Record		3-11
			Vegas Sprd		-500					Vegas Sprd		+367
			Avg. KP		72.6					Avg. KP		68.0
			Team Pace		0.81					Team Pace		0.79
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Odoamne	Jankos	Ryu	VandeR	Forg1ven		Players	fredy122	Airwaks	Betsy	NoXiAK	Tabzz
Opp. Season	10	10	10	10	10		Opp. Season	3	1	1	1	1

I’ve been pretty high on Roccat ever since they brought in Tabzz and having him paired with Noxiak makes for a pretty formidable bottom lane duo. That hype train will be coming to a halt or at least making a pit stop as Roccat faces off against H2K. There was a time earlier in the season when I was fading on Forg1ven quite a bit but that time has passed and he is nearly matchup-proof at this point. With H2k being one of those three elite tier teams in the region and Roccat sitting at 9th, this looks to be a massively lopsided matchup but I’d shy away from stacking too heavily on H2k for this slate. Players like Forg1ven and Odoamne are the ones I’m targeting with the latter being my favorite play of this game. Odoamne had over 42 fantasy points in the last matchup against Roccat and with the early game success Roccat tends to have, this game could end up going to the later stages with a possibility for more kills and assists. H2k is actually averaging the longest game time among all EU teams nearing the 40 minute mark on average. H2k for the team slot is probably the safest lock for a strong game as they average the most towers per game and they are decent in the dragon/baron department as well.

H2k-Gaming

Elite Plays

-Odoamne (DK $7,400, AD $8,100) – It’s pretty clear that Odoamne and Cabochard are by far the best fantasy options at the top lane position so I’m always looking to grab one of them. The matchup against fredy122 is very favorable and Odoamne had over 42 fantasy points the last time they faced off.

-Forg1ven (DK/AD $8,300) – Looking at the ADC player pool, Forg1ven has probably the highest floor and there is a very good chance that he exceeds value. If I can only afford one H2k player, I’d go for Odoamne but Forg1ven has a great chance for a monster day.

Secondary Plays

-Everyone Else – Jankos and Vander are the next two guys I’d look at but it’s nearly impossible to stack H2k on DraftKings, however on AlphaDraft, you can grab all 3 solo laners for H2k and manage a very strong cash games lineup. I don’t see anyone on H2k being a dud but if I had to avoid one it would be Ryu. I’d rather have Febiven on both sites for cash games.

Roccat

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Betsy (DK $5,000, $7,300) – If you’re looking for a dirt cheap flex option on DraftKings in particular, you could do worse than Betsy. He’s been a bit up and down but his early game numbers are competitive with the top mid laners in the league. Definitely prefer this play in tournament play over cash games.

Unicorns of Love vs. Origen

Unicorns of Love							Origen
			Record		9-5					Record		7-7
			Vegas Sprd		-104					Vegas Sprd		-116
			Avg. KP		67.7					Avg. KP		66.4
			Team Pace		0.89					Team Pace		0.84
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Vizicsacsi	loulex	Fox	Hylissang	Steeelback		Players	sOAZ	Amazing	PowerOfEvil	Mithy	Zven
Opp. Season	7	7	4	3	4		Opp. Season	6	6	7	6	6

The last time we saw these two teams battle feels like so long ago. Their Week 2 match was a lopsided affair in which Origen routed the Unicorns in under 26 minutes while piling up 17 kills. Both teams still remain a bit of a mystery as we head into the later stages with both squads having split 1-1 in each of the past 3 weeks. I expect this game to be much closer than that Week 3 affair and this will probably be a popular game in cash formats because many expect it will end in a bloodbath. Both teams are negative in gold differential at 15 minutes but they also average more than 11 kills per game each as well. We at least know the strengths of each team which makes them a bit one dimensional, more so on the Origen side because Zven is really the only consistent threat. UOL’s most consistent and best player is probably Vizicsacsi even with the improved play from Steelback in the bottom lane. I’d still feel comfortable grabbing both Vizi and Zven in cash games on both DK and AD considering their solid value but if you want to stack this game, Unicorns of Love is the team with multiple threats coming from Top and ADC. Even Hyllisang is a nice mid tier support option on DraftKings and he has 25 or more points in 5 of his last 10 games which is very strong from that position.

Adding on to the article with some breaking news (queue the ESPN breaking news sound clip.) Reports are stating that xPeke will be subbing in the mid lane for Origen over PowerofEvil. No word on if this will be the case on Friday as well but he is not currently listed on DraftKings or Alphadraft but considering illness is listed as the reason, PowerOfEvil may be back as early as Friday or next week. Either way, make sure to remove POE from your lineup. This is likely a minor boost to the entire team but I’m reserving judgement on how much they will improve as we have yet to see xPeke play this season and the meta has shifted quite a bit since Worlds.

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

-Fox (DK only $7,000) – My opinion on Fox’s value is unwavering despite the news of xPeke subbing in for POE. Fox has shown he can step up his play against the top tier mids by averaging over 38 points in 3 games against VIT, H2K, and FNC. His salary on DraftKings is very favorable and I like him in cash games and tournament play.

Secondary Plays

-Hylissang (DK $5,100, $7,400) – Hylissang only trails Hybrid in total assists among EU supports and his value, especially on DraftKings, is very high. I’m hesitant to consider him an elite play because he is up against Zven, but the UOL bottom lane has been a surprisingly strong fantasy duo all season.

-Vizicsacsi (DK only $6,200) – I’m loving the UOL value on DK. They are consistently in the lower tier of salary despite being the slight favorite. Despite having a low kill participation (64%) he is still in the top 3 of kills and assists. Very solid flex option as well.

Origen

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None – Despite the potential for Zven to put up big numbers, his fantasy totals in losses are very meager and in 3 of his past 4 games, he has failed to eclipse the 20 point mark on Draftkings. I need to see this team play with xPeke before I believe the magic is back.

Vitality vs. G2 Esports

Vitality							G2 Esports
			Record		11-3					Record		11-3
			Vegas Sprd		-123					Vegas Sprd		+102
			Avg. KP		69.2					Avg. KP		69.4
			Team Pace		0.75					Team Pace		1.05
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Cabochard	Shook	Nukeduck	KaSing	Hjarnan		Players	Kikis	Trick	Perkz	Hybrid	Emperor
Opp. Season	4	3	2	4	2		Opp. Season	2	2	3	2	3

This is the headline matchup of the day and I think any fan of the EU LCS will be looking forward to seeing the two top teams clash in what could decide who places first in the Spring Split. The only thing problematic on the daily fantasy side is deciding which players to target in such a close match. We’ve seen a few slip ups lately from G2 and while they have escaped most of these mediocre outings with a victory, a talented team like Vitality may be able to punish them more than their recent opponents. Vitality also had a convincing win over G2 in Week 5 in a game that was only close until just past the 20 minute mark when Vitality pulled away and Cabochard went on a rampage.

G2 may be slowing down a bit but Vitality is on a red hot tear having not dropped a game since Week 4. Cabochard remains the primary carry for this team with over 28 fantasy points in 6 straight games meanwhile Shook has really improved his play of late and now leads all EU junglers with a 75.6% kill participation. Despite the recent trends for each team, I still expect this to be a very close game and I think that G2 will actually have a higher ownership share on DraftKings because of how low the salaries are for the level of talent you can get. Things may swing the other way on AlphaDraft because they seem to have G2 pegged as the favorite and almost every player for G2 is the top salary of their position. The Vegas odds have Vitality as the slight favorite and I’m leaning towards those players for my cash lineups but primarily on AlphaDraft. The conflicting playstyles could lead to solid value on both sides with G2 profiting off of early kills and early aggression while Vitality scales for the late game teamfights.

Vitality

Elite Plays

-Cabochard (DK $6,400, AD $7,800) – Shying away from this game may be the best play because of the unpredictable nature of two top teams facing off but I still have tons of faith in Cabochard. I mentioned above how consistent he has been and I like Cabo a lot even as a one-off if you plan on avoiding this game for the most part.

Secondary Plays

-Nukeduck (DK $7,200, AD $7,700) – Nukeduck got the best of the matchup against Perkz in their last battle so I’m banking on another strong performance from him this week. He doesn’t put up monster games but he has been very consistent and improving every week so I think he will do what it takes to hit value but probably doesn’t have a great ceiling due to the nature of the matchup. I’ll be favoring him in AlphaDraft and may look elsewhere on DK.

-Shook (DK $6,000, AD $7,400) – This is one of those instances where I might even pair Shook and Trick in the jungle/flex spots. If I had to favor one or the other I’m going with Shook who has been performing better lately and his kill participation has risen to the top at his position.

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Emperor (DK only $7,100) – I won’t be paying top dollar for Emperor on AlphaDraft but his value on DK warrants mentioning. His 54 point performance against the likes of Zven and OG will have his ownership pretty high but I still think he is a great upside play in cash and tournaments. Emperor now leads all EU ADC’s with 66 kills which is 20 more than his opponent Hjarnan

-Hybrid (DK only $5,000) – Pretty much everything about Emperor applies here. The matchup is even but the upside potential is huge and the support position is the best for going cheap.

Elements vs. Splyce

Elements							Splyce
			Record		4-10					Record		4-10
			Vegas Sprd		-110					Vegas Sprd		-110
			Avg. KP		68.9					Avg. KP		74.3
			Team Pace		0.73					Team Pace		0.67
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Steve	Gilius	Eika	sprattel	Mr RalleZ		Players	Wunderwear	Trashy	Sencux	Nisbeth	Kobbe
Opp. Season	5	5	6	7	7		Opp. Season	9	9	8	9	8

With several key matchups on Thursday, this match between Elements and Splyce is not exactly the grand finale to cap off the day. Both teams have a 4-10 record and the chances of nabbing the last playoff spot look pretty slim at this point. They still have something to play for and the 7th place spot would still exceed expectation for Elements. This game also features very little fantasy value on either site with the odds having this one as an even game, the salaries on both sides are inflated. Slotting in a player like Sencux instead of someone like Fox or Perkz for the same salary has very little upside even as a GPP play or flex spot. If there is any value to extract in this one I’m looking at the bottom lane duo of Elements. MrRalleZ is 4th at his position with a 70% kill participation and 5th in total kills with 58 while ranking in the top 3 of damage share. Elements understands he is the primary carry for the team and he has a favorable matchup against Splyce so I think he is a decent flex play for this slate on both sites.

The general issue that has plagued Splyce for most of this season is they seem to nullify fantasy value in either direction. They don’t surrender a high volume of kills so stacking against them doesn’t net large returns but they fail to get kills for themselves so it’s tough to feel comfortable with any Splyce player in your lineup. These teams haven’t played since Week 1 which ended up being a very solid win for Elements. I expect Elements to come out on top but the fantasy value may not be there to merit much attention.

Elements

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-MrRalleZ (DK $7,200, AD $7,300) – This is a nice contrarian play in GPP’s but there isn’t much else I see in this play. He does have solid numbers as mentioned above and I expect him to be the primary carry for his team so I’m expecting a solid outing with around 25 fantasy points with potential for even more.

Splyce

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

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