LoL Fantasy - IEM Day 2: Analysis and Picks
We’re back for the second day of the Intel Extreme Masters after a wild day one that saw Team SoloMid fight their way out of the loser’s bracket and into Sunday’s semifinals. All four teams who played on the day took at least one win, which gives hope to the underdogs on today’s slate. It will certainly be tough for CLG and Fnatic, but regardless of what you hear elsewhere, or read below, don’t count them out.
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SK Telecom T1 vs. Counter Logic Gaming
It’s been just four months since SKT were crowned League of Legend’s 2015 World Champions, but 2016 hasn’t been so kind. A dominant force throughout 2015, the team lost just one game at Worlds. SKT has largely stuck with the same group of players who looked all but unbeatable just a short few months ago. It hasn’t been so, however, as Korea’s top professional team holds a playoff spot in the spring split by just a half game. Championship hangover is a concept we often hear about and perhaps that’s what it is, but SKT’s struggles this year don’t seem like they’re going to suddenly disappear.
SKT is just 5-4 in LCK play as they kick off IEM and anything short of a championship performance in Katowice will further the doubts about whether they will be able to reach 2015’s heights without change. CLG isn’t a particularly frightening opponent for a team of SKT’s caliber, yet questions of whether the team’s heart will be in it at IEM are legitimate, and it could open the door for a loss.
Statistically speaking, SKT have been average at best at home in Korea and it’s not as if CLG is so far below their current level of play that they are likely to play them off the Rift. A negative average early game gold differential is ugly for the World Champs, as is everyone other than Faker’s Kill Participation. For fantasy, given the way that the team has played, as well as the way CLG like to play, it’s conceivable that this game won’t feature many kills.
Speaking of CLG and the way they like to play; it’s split pushing. They’ve been steadily split pushing teams in most of their games this season, doing their best to put top laner Darshan into positions to get advantages through pushing a lane toward the inhibitor. It works in North America, but it will need to be very well executed to work well enough to pull off the upset against SKT. I think it’s possible, but again, fantasy points may be limited.
Despite having 10 wins this season, good for second behind Immortals, CLG have just 178 kills this season. That’s 12.7 kills on average, by far the lowest of teams with winning records in the NA LCS. On a two game slate, we can’t be too picky, but this game has a lower floor than some may realize.
Best Plays
Xmithie, Jungle – CLG (DK $5,000, AD $7,200) – We may need to punt somewhere on Saturday’s slate and a recently improved version of Xmithie is our best option. With Darshan off split pushing, CLG’s jungler has been more aggressive and has been succeeding in doing so. SKT is a very tough team, but they aren’t likely to shut CLG out.
Faker, Mid – SKT (DK $8,000, AD $8,100) – SKT’s struggles this season are no secret, but they enter IEM as a favorite none the less. Faker is a big part of why. The world’s best player leads his team in kills and total damage, despite playing one less game than ADC Bang. He is also the only SKT member with a KP north of 70%.
Blank, Jungle – SKT (DK $6,900, AD $7,600) – Taking usual jungler Bengi’s place at IEM, Blank is in position to take SKT’s jungler spot fulltime. A good performance in Poland will likely leave Blank as the starter for the remainder of the season, so expect his best effort.
Fnatic vs. Qiao Gu Reapers
Fnatic enter Katowice with a similar 2016 trajectory to SKT. Fnatic aren’t the World Champions, of course, but did have a very impressive 2015 and have had a particularly mediocre 2016 thus far. Last summer’s 18-0 season has been followed up by a season which has included a number of poor performances and even a loss to bottom-feeder Splyce. Rekkles’ transition into the team’s fulltime shotcaller hasn’t been as smooth as the team would have hoped for and as of right now, it’s difficult to see them holding their own against a very good Reapers team.
How can Fnatic get past QG? The team does have some genuine international experience, with Febiven and Rekkles having each reached the semifinals at the 2015 World Championships. New jungler Spirit also has experience with Chinese teams and players and could be a valuable asset ahead of a one off game in which the teams have very little time to prepare for. Whether that small edge is enough to defeat a team who is currently cruising its way through the LPL regular season is a big ask, though.
QG is the lone Group B team to enter the tournament on a high as they sit atop their LPL group with a 7-1 record, their only loss having come to fellow Katowice attendee Royal Never Give Up. Outside of the 2-0 loss to Royal, Reapers have dropped just one other game for a 14-3 total match record on the season. This team is a contender to win the tournament, especially with a low form SKT and two western teams in their group.
Again, outside of their lost to Royal, QG has been dominant. Not only is the team winning nearly every game they play, they’re often doing it exactly the way we like, regularly reaching as many as 20 kills or more. Fnatic are enough of a challenge that they shouldn’t roll over before the Reapers have had their chance to bag big fantasy scores. It’s not a secret that the clashing styles between regions can sometimes result in unpredictable outcomes, but we have every reason to expect a Cloud9-like number of kills for QG should they defeat Fnatic in expected fashion.
Best Plays
V, Top – QG (DK $7,100, AD $7,800) – For me, top lane primarly comes down to V or Duke, and I prefer V. There is a strong chance that Duke is tasked with fending off Darshan for most of their game, while V should be more involved in what QG does to try to beat Fnatic.
Peco, ADC – QG (DK $7,900, AD $8,300) – This guy is a monster and is arguably the strongest play on the day. Here’s Peco’s last three lines (not including the 2-0 loss to RNG), all of which came against much stiffer competition: 5/0/4, 7/0/11 and 12/1/14. Double bonus games are rare. Get this guy into your teams.
Febiven, Mid – FNC (DK $6,200, AD $7,300) – Something that I think will be common on Saturday is punting strictly junglers and supports, but Febiven has been playing well recently and any Fnatic pushback against Qiao Gu will feature him. This is a very tough two game slate, so don’t be afraid to look at Febi, even in a tough spot.