LoL Fantasy Preview: NA/EU Quarterfinals - April 2nd
The playoffs are finally here after a long spring of LCS play. This slate features a combination of both North American and European LCS Quarterfinal matchups which are each in the best-of-five format. Both series’ in this slate are between the 3-seed and 6-seed for each respective region so there are clear favorites but with the lower tier teams excluded from the playoffs, look for higher quality of play and adaptation across a series of games which differs from the single games we typically see in the LCS.
It is also important to note that there is a bonus for the players and team slot for “games not played” which only applies to players from the winning team. This bonus is 20 (DK) or 10 (AD) points per GNP for each player and 15 (DK) or 5 (AD) points per GNP for each team. Again, this bonus only applies to the winning team. Let’s dive right into our matchups.
Team Vitality (-215) vs Fnatic (+174)
I was a little surprised to see Vitality favored by this little simply because they were vying for one of the top two spots coming into the last week of the spring split. Not that they aren’t getting their due respect as the favorite but this team has been improving pretty steadily with a few minor hiccups in the last couple of weeks. That being said they are 6-2 over their last 8 contests and they have few flaws across all positions and their team synergy has grown to be among the best in EU. Fnatic on the other hand, is 3-5 over that span with ugly losses to inferior opponents. That includes losses in 3 straight games to close out the season. In the head-to-head, Vitality has won both games but the most recent victory was much closer than the first. For cash games, it’s safe to go with as many favorites as possible and Vitality has some favorable matchups that are worth going with. Sprinkling in a few Fnatic players is an option on the contrarian side but it’s advisable to only roster one player from that team at most.
If you are looking for a “must-have” player in this series, it has to be Cabochard in the top lane for VIT. Not only is he the primary carry for his team, but he’s up against the weakest link of the Fnatic team. Cabochard dominated the LCS top lane this spring, leading in categories such as kills (57), kill participation (74.7%) and damage share (22.6%) all while being the focus of many opponents who work continuously to shut him down. Regardless of what champions he plays, Cabochard consistently delivers fantasy value and in a small slate his value only increases. I’ll also consider giving Nukeduck the mid lane slot on AlphaDraft primarily where he is listed cheaper than both Bjergsen and Jensen. Over his last 4 games, Nukeduck is averaging 5 kills and 8 assists and he also had at least 6 kills in 4 of his last 6 games. His opponent Febiven has been on a downwards trajectory ever since IEM and is only averaging a notch under 5 kills and 3.5 assists over his last 4 games. If there is a position worth going cheap on it has to be jungle where Spirit has been very hit or miss but presents decent upside potential. The price discrepancy on DraftKings is far greater than that on AlphaDraft so it’s not really worth rostering him on AD.
The one player I can confidently say I won’t be picking up is Klaj at the support role for Fnatic. Not only are his numbers pretty poor, only 1 game with 10+ assists over his last 6, but the eye test shows that he continues to make errors and surrender his life for nothing. I’ve gone this far without mentioning much about Febiven and Rekkles but it’s simply because I can’t justify rostering them over any of the Vitality players. They have both been very inconsistent and while Febiven has put up strong numbers, top 4 in kills and KDA, he doesn’t present great value on either site. I don’t expect this series to be too terribly close and Vitality has an even better shot at a 3-0 than Cloud 9 in my view. Team Vitality is also the top pick at the team spot because they control objectives like Dragon and Baron for the extra points, and they can get you those coveted “games not played” bonuses.
Team Vitality
Players to target:
-Cabochard (DK $6,800, AD $7,700) – As stated above, Cabochard has been a monster all year and it should continue in a favorable matchup. His champion pool is so large, Fnatic will find it near impossible to weaken him during the pick/ban phase.
-Nukeduck (AD only $7,600) – On DraftKings I think it’s smarter to either go for a better stud like Jensen or take a contrarian approach on Bjergsen or Febiven. I highly prefer the former over the latter but on AD, Nukeduck is a great play.
-KaSing (DK $5,800, AD $7,300) – While Hai may have the higher upside for production due to the nature of C9’s playstyle, KaSing is the safer play for a marginally lower price. He has had at least 9 assists in 4 straight games and he ranks 2nd in kill participation (77.4%) among EU supports this spring. Hai still has 14 more assists in 2 less games played so he may be the better play but KaSing has been a consistent contributor all season with Hai being more volatile.
Fnatic
Players to target:
-Spirit (DK $5,400, AD $7,400) – While I think you can get away with basically having none of the Fnatic players on AlphaDraft, going cheap at the jungle position isn’t a bad option on DraftKings. Spirit hasn’t been the most impressive player on his team but he isn’t a bad option. One thing I like about him is that he has experience in playoffs and series play from his play at IEM and his time back when he played in Korea. He performed well in series play at IEM and some players just adapt better and get to know tendencies. I think he is capable of that and though it may not be enough to get FNC a series win, it could be enough to hit on value for fantasy.
Cloud 9 (-350) vs Team SoloMid (+271)
I wish I could say we get a more exciting series in NA with a higher probability of an upset but that just isn’t the case. Not that I don’t think TSM can steal a game, but C9 has been the better team and TSM may even be worse than their record indicates which is not a good sign considering they snuck into the playoffs at the 6 seed. TSM has not beaten a playoff team since Week 5 and they are 2-6 over their last 8 games while dropping their last 3. Cloud 9 is 6-2 over their last 8 games and have looked very strong except for the disaster last match against TL.
One thing I want to highlight about this matchup is C9’s past performances in series play. This team has always been one of the best when it comes to adapting during a series and it’s why I think when the NA LCS moves to best-of-three formatting in the Summer, they will be a team that can top Immortals as the best team in the region. They may even prove that to be true if they face them in the Finals but they still have to get through a few teams to display that. The only thing to consider, although I don’t think it’s a major concern, is if they see a weakness in somewhere that we don’t usually expect and focus on that, we could see some unexpected fantasy results. To clarify, if for some reason they find that empowering Balls in the top lane is their best way to beat TSM, we could see a surprisingly strong fantasy performance from Balls, a player that has been a secondary or tertiary player all spring. Again, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that when building a lineup, but it’s a possibility based on how they have played series’ in the past.
From a daily fantasy perspective, I think Balls is way too high priced on DraftKings to merit consideration and it’s absurd that he is more expensive than Cabochard for this slate. Statistically, Balls and Hauntzer have actually been pretty close all season and I don’t see an overwhelming amount of value for either player. One thing I do like about this matchup is the potential for volume on both sides. C9 and TSM are in the top 3 in NA for combined kills/assists + opponent kills/assists. Translation: these teams will be racking up kills on both sides. C9 thrives much more in this environment so I’m very high on carry players like Jensen and Sneaky. Much like Klaj, there are very few scenarios where I like Svenskeren. Actually there are basically zero scenarios that I like Svenskeren to produce enough fantasy points. He leads the league in deaths per game and he has 61 deaths on the season. He’s not even in the top 4 of kills, assists, kill participation, and damage per minute. I could go on but it isn’t worth anyone’s time. If he outperforms C9’s Rush I will literally buy and wear a Svenskeren TSM jersey. You can hold me to that one (insert caveat where I’m writing this on April Fools.) When it comes to the carry players of TSM, Bjergsen and Doublelift have both been decent, but underwhelming considering the expectations coming into the season. Bjergsen has been more reliant on his team and taken on a secondary carry role which is a concern when he’s not getting much help from those players. For that reason, I think Doublelift is an interesting play, especially on DraftKings.
In the end, I think we will have a series that will be dominated by Cloud 9 with TSM maybe capable of stealing a game or even two but a 3-1 is my official prediction in Cloud 9’s favor.
Cloud 9
Players to target:
-Rush (DK $6,800, AD $7,400) – The carries like Jensen and Sneaky are a higher priority for me when building my lineup but Rush is a great secondary play if you elect to go heavy with Vitality in those spots. He may not have the best kill participation, his mark of 70.9% ranks 6th among qualifying NA junglers, but he racks up large amounts of kills and assists. As far as the matchup, TSM is allowing the 2nd most kills to opposing junglers and the 3rd most assists. He outclasses Svenskeren in almost every facet of the game.
-Jensen (DK $7,700, AD $8,000) – While Cabochard is the “must-have” of the first matchup, Jensen is the NA version. He has proven the ability to play a variety of champions and he has surpassed Bjergsen as the best mid laner in the region. He leads the position in damage per minute and kills which are telling statistics for how much impact a player has. In only 1 of his last 10 games, has he finished with less than 4 kills. Even though this series may be a bit closer than the EU quarterfinals, Jensen has the highest upside and potential to make up for a lost game with a huge game to follow.
-Sneaky (DK $7,800, AD $7,900) – Sneaky has been one of the best ADC’s in the second half of the season and the way TSM’s bottom lane has been serving up kills to the opposition, he should be in line for a big fantasy day. Only one team in the region this spring allowed opposing ADC’s more fantasy points per game. In the last bout between these two teams, Sneaky had 8 kills and 11 assists. Even if most games in the series aren’t producing that volume of stats, he should be a consistent fantasy option and the best play at the position.
-Hai (DK $6,000, AD $7,500) – I don’t love paying up this much for support but on smaller slates it can be a better play and the lower tier supports in this slate could produce dangerously low numbers that could destroy cash games lineups. The bloodthirsty nature of this C9 team drives his value and it’s the reason why he has more assists in less games than KaSing despite KaSing being the better player individually.
Team SoloMid
Players to target:
-Doublelift (DK only $6,000) – The price difference between the two sites at this position is quite large. Sneaky is $1,800 more on DK but only $400 more on AD. For that reason, I’m okay with rostering Doublelift on DraftKings and maximizing potential elsewhere, or even using him in combination with Sneaky. Even though TSM is worth in this regard, C9 is surrendering a high volume of kills (4.6) and assists (4) to opposing ADC’s and that is exactly how things played out when these teams played last. Both Sneaky and Doublelift had over 7 kills and 7 assists.
-Yellowstar (DK $4,300, AD $6,900) – I’d like to just go ahead and red flag this right off the bat. Things to like about Yellowstar: His price point, and playing alongside Doublelift who puts up strong fantasy numbers. Things to dislike: His low floor, high death volume. He still finished 4th in total assists in the region and has a mediocre 73.6% kill participation. You can go cheap at support to stack a lot of VIT and C9 players so with Klaj on my “do not roster” list, Yellowstar becomes the best option in that regard.