LoL Grind Down: EU LCS - Thursday

by Christopher Michael Thomas (chrismikethomas) Last Updated 2016-02-20 01:39:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders LoL Grind Down! These articles will cover everything you need to know for playing League of Legends fantasy including defense vs position, projections, vegas odds, and detailed analysis.

Also included is the RotoGrinders original statistic pace — a higher pace means bloodier games, so when two teams with high pace play, expect a bloodbath!

Vegas odds come from pinnaclesports.com, team aggregate projections are the total AlphaDraft points projected for all five members, and team slot projections are projections for the actual team pick in AlphaDraft points. Efficiency is also mentioned, which is calculated as ( Projected Points / Salary ) * 1000, and represents how much bang you’re getting for your buck.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and AlphaDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Elements vs. Origen

Elements							Origen
			Vegas Odds		26%					Vegas Odds		74%
			Team Agg. Proj		63.72					Team Agg. Proj		95.47
			Team Slot Proj.		8.72					Team Slot Proj.		13.02
			Team Pace		0.78					Team Pace		0.83
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Steve	Gilius	Eika	sprattel	Mr RalleZ		Players	sOAZ	Amazing	PowerOfEvil	Mithy	Zven
Opp. Season	7	7	4	3	4		Opp. Season	9	9	8	9	8

Despite their close proximity in standing, I do agree with the vegas odds that Origen have a substantial advantage here. Elements are not a ‘good’ team; they’ve never beaten a team ahead of themselves in the standings, and only show enough promise to avoid relegation, not to make a splash at playoffs. Origen is clearly a better team, and clearly has more promise, despite their overall under-performance.

That being said, Origen have a problem- they respond slowly to changes, and have a weak analytics/coaching staff (They famously claim they “don’t need a coach,” but I’m skeptical of that claim given their flaccid performance thusfar). Week 6 of the LCS is being played on patch 6.3, putting Origen at a possible disadvantage. 6.3 isn’t an enormous shakeup or anything, but Elements may pull out a cheese pick and take Origen by surprise, which increases upset potential.

I expect this to be a reasonably bloody game, and Origen should be good picks for cash whether they win or lose (Elements DvP when winning is 2nd highest in the league behind Giants). Elements overall are good picks for contrarian GPP rosters, and they could be solid cash punts if you have reason to believe they have an edge.

Elements

Secondary Plays

MrRallez (AD $7600): Rallez is by far the best scoring player on Elements (16.96 points projected), and Origen has been sloppy lately, so Rallez should be a reasonable enough pick on AlphaDraft even in a loss. On DraftKings you should have better things to do with your money unless you’re mass-entering GPPs.

Steve (DK $5500): Even with a projected loss, Steve is still fourth overall in projected efficiency in his role (3.00), which speaks more to weak top laners than particular strength on Steve’s part. Still, if you need a punt in the top lane he’s a reasonable choice.

Origen

Elite Plays

Zven (AD $8100, DK $8000): I don’t have much to add to my spotlight on Zven last week; he receives an incredible percentage of his teams gold and attention, and because of this you can expect him to perform exceptionally well (Projected at 24.41 on AD, 27.77 on DK). Zven is especially strong on AlphaDraft (Under-costed), but he’s an exceptional pick universally, even if he costs a fortune.

Mithy (AD $7500): Origen is under-costed on AlphaDraft, with Mithy benefiting the most from this, clocking in as the second best support overall (Projected at 17.56) and in terms of efficiency (2.34), and somehow the fourteenth best pick overall (Exceptional for a support).

Secondary Plays

PowerOfEvil (AD $7800): PoE benefits from a weak lane matchup this week; despite often being stuck supporting Zven, a weak lane matchup increases PoE’s chances of dominance against Elements. PoE isn’t an especially good pick (Projected at 19.53), but Origen’s overall under-costing on AlphaDraft makes him worth a look.

Mithy (DK $6000): Origen is probably over-costed on DK this week, but Mithy is still a reasonable cash pick because of his consistent performances, and an overall under-costing of support (Efficiency of 3.11). Furthermore, Mithy is the third or fourth best scoring member of Origen 70% of the time while always being the cheapest member to purchase, so you’re likely to get value.

Roccat vs. Splyce

Roccat							Splyce
			Vegas Odds		37%					Vegas Odds		63%
			Team Agg. Proj		58.60					Team Agg. Proj		71.50
			Team Slot Proj.		13.38					Team Slot Proj.		9.56
			Team Pace		0.78					Team Pace		0.64
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	fredy122	Airwaks	Betsy	extinkt	Tabzz		Players	Wunderwear	Trashy	Sencux	Nisbeth	Kobbe
Opp. Season	5	5	6	7	7		Opp. Season	10	10	10	10	10

This is probably the hardest game to predict of the rest of the split.

Neither team has shown any spectacular performances against clearly better teams recently, indicating their ranking at the bottom of the pack is well deserved. ROCCAT is probably the most volatile and unpredictable team in all of Europe, and while Splyce is predictably bad, they have had some dominating performances against other bottom teams. Furthermore, the strength of both teams lies in the mid lane, which means the match may be entirely decided by a 50/50 lane coin flip, or which jungler ganks better, but that can’t be reliably predicted because these may be the 2 worst junglers in the league.

I think this matchup is a straight up 50/50. I reviewed all of each teams recent games and did not see any substantial trends, so please pick at your own risk here. It’s even hard to predict how bloody the game will be, because while both teams generally score poorly and give up relatively few points, matchups between bottom ranked teams often turn into bloodbaths (See: DIG vs FOX).

Roccat

Elite Plays

Betsy (AD $7600, DK $6600): If you have a strong intuition ROCCAT will win, Betsy is your man. He’s only projected at 13.16 points, but he could easily score more if the game turns bloody, as he’s far and away the person responsible for carrying his team. Numerically he’s not an elite pick in either site, but I suspect the mid who wins their lane will score exceptionally well.

Secondary Plays

Extinkt (AD $6900, DK $4800): It’s hard to recommend other members of ROCCAT (This is not a match with a clear winner), but Extinkt brings the most value, and has performed better in his position than other members of his team. Sixth in his position in terms of projected points (12.15) and efficiency (1.76), Extinkt is a reasonable punt, and has a substantial upside the same as Betsy.

Splyce

Elite Plays

Sencux (AD $7500, DK $7500): Same as Betsy, Sencux is only projected at 16.62 points, but he has a very high ceiling since he bears the responsibility of carrying his team. Keep in mind Sencux got a solo quadra kill earlier this split, which by itself net 12 points, and made Sencux the ‘pick of the day.’ He’s definitely the best pick from his team, the real question is whether or not Splyce will win.

Secondary Plays

None: I can’t in good conscience recommend anyone else from Splyce, sadly none of them stand out in any meaningful way. If you have a strong read on Splyce winning then just take the position(s) you need to fill, although it’s a worse choice on DK because they’re generally over-costed.

Unicorns of Love vs. Giants Gaming

Unicorns of Love							Giants Gaming
			Vegas Odds		79%					Vegas Odds		21%
			Team Agg. Proj		124.55					Team Agg. Proj		52.52
			Team Slot Proj.		16.39					Team Slot Proj.		8.02
			Team Pace		0.93					Team Pace		0.76
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Vizicsacsi	Rudy	Fox	Hylissang	Steeelback		Players	Atom	BetongJocke	xPePii	GODFRED	Adryh
Opp. Season	8	8	9	8	9		Opp. Season	6	6	7	6	6

A tale as old as time, we all know when Unicorns and Giants rumble the Unicorns emerge victorious. Seriously though, this game is going to be hard to watch for Spanish LoL fans… I don’t think the Giants stand any chance worth talking about.

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

All Unicorns (AD $7800, $7600, $8000, $7900, $7400 for T/J/M/A/S) (DK $7400, $7200, $8300, $8300, $6200)

I swear this is not me being lazy- all five members of UoL are fantastic picks on both websites.

All five members are #1 in their positions on AD both overall (23.86, 26.33, 27.16, 26.63, 20.57) and in terms of efficiency (3.06, 3.46, 3.39, 3.37, 2.78). Rudy is the most efficient pick, Fox packs the most punch, Steeelback has the highest ceiling, and Vizicsacsi is the best in position overall, but they’re all excellent. Fox has the highest overall projected points of any player today, and Rudy has the highest overall efficiency. What else is there to say, PICK UNICORNS.

Likewise on DK, all five members are #1 in their role for projections (26.69, 29.07, 30.03, 30.47, 22.32), but only Rudy is #1 in his position for efficiency (3.62). Steeelback is a better pick here than Fox because of the doubled points for creep score but this is negligible, choose whichever carry best suits the rest of your roster.

Giants

No.

Fnatic vs. G2 Esports

Fnatic							G2 Esports
			Vegas Odds		42%					Vegas Odds		58%
			Team Agg. Proj		87.47					Team Agg. Proj		88.38
			Team Slot Proj.		11.47					Team Slot Proj.		12.72
			Team Pace		0.78					Team Pace		1.05
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Gamsu	Spirit	Febiven	Klaj	Rekkles		Players	Kikis	Trick	Perkz	Hybrid	Emperor
Opp. Season	4	3	2	4	2		Opp. Season	1	4	5	5	5

This game will be very interesting.

G2 has nothing to gain and everything to lose; the consensus best or second best team in the league, G2 also beat Fnatic the last time they matched up, so they go into the match with their backs against the wall. I expect Trick to substantially out-jungle Spirit, who sadly has lost his spirit (Apologies) recently. However, Febiven solo killed Faker… twice. I don’t expect Perkz to shine as brightly this game as he has recently, despite Febiven’s slump. In the top lane Kikis should lose his lane handily, and I don’t see G2 having much of an advantage in the bottom lane either. However, even with G2’s sloppy shotcalling, they’ve been much more coordinated as a team than Fnatic, and that should translate to a mid to late-game win.

For Fnatic, this game is crucial to their end of split standings. They need wins against higher ranked teams, and somehow G2 is likely the most volatile of the teams on top. If Fnatic can get their things together, win their lanes as expected, and then translate it into mid-game objectives, they could get a decisive win here. If Fnatic lose I’d predict them to end the split barely making playoffs, but if they win I wouldn’t be surprised if they end the split second or third.

Both teams should be good picks today, because neither team is capable of closing a game cleanly. I expect both teams to be heavily picked for cash games and GPP’s alike.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

Rekkles (AD $8000, DK $6900): Ah, good ol’ Rekkles. Sometimes great, sometimes mediocre for an entire split, Rekkles has finally emerged as the clear fantasy carry of choice on Fnatic, overthrowing Febiven and Gamsu who both held that title for awhile. With 19.44 projected points (Fourth in position), and 2.43 efficiency (Third in position), Rekkles is clearly worth his moderately high price tag, even if Fnatic end up losing the game. What really moves Rekkles into elite territory is his high floor, making him an ideal pick for cash games.

Klaj (DK $4900): We have a super small sample size to work with here (And Fnatic’s previous support Noxiak was a fantasy dumpster), but Klaj is so absurdly under-costed that he can’t be ignored on DK, with the eighth highest efficiency of any player (3.53). I suspect that DK has calculated Klaj’s salary using Noxiak’s stats, but Klaj clearly meshes much better with the team, so get all you can out of this under-costing while it exists.

Secondary Plays

Febiven (AD $8100, DK $6800), Gamsu (AD $7700, DK $6100): These players statistics are so similar across sites I figured I’d group them together, to illustrate neither is especially preferable. Gamsu has a better lane matchup, but Febiven has a higher ceiling and floor. Fnatic is more under-costed on DK (So you could easily play both there in cash), but on AD I’d be more conservative with your salary and pick whichever is needed. In terms of efficiency the picks are nearly identical, both having 2.27.

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

Trick (AD $8100, DK $6100): Trick left CJ Entus and started stomping faces for another team, which has become such a strong trend I may treat it as genuine against my best judgment. The clear best fantasy player on G2, not only has Trick been the most impressive fantasy jungler for almost the entire split, he was briefly the best overall fantasy player in any position; astonishing for a jungler. Today he’s second overall in his position (Projected at 20.62) and in terms of efficiency (2.55) on both websites, and as no surprise to anyone he’s just an amazing pick with an incredibly high ceiling and floor, somehow packaged with low variance (Second best in the league of any position!).

Secondary Plays

Perkz (AD $8500, DK $7200): I don’t expect Perkz to earn an amazing performance against Febiven, but could Trick carry him to one for fantasy? Absolutely. If Perkz gets fed a few kills in the first 15 minutes he has the potential to go absolutely ham bananas, with possibly the highest ceiling of any player in the league. Have Perkz in most of your G2 GPP rosters, but let it be known he’s a substantial risk in cash.

Hybrid (AD $7600, DK $5400): Hybrid is not exceptional on either website, but he is reasonably under-costed, and is a strong pick in a position without many strong picks. Pick him if you need a support and you believe in G2.

Vitality vs. H2k-Gaming

Vitality							H2k-Gaming
			Vegas Odds		42%					Vegas Odds		58%
			Team Agg. Proj		63.62					Team Agg. Proj		94.24
			Team Slot Proj.		10.99					Team Slot Proj.		13.15
			Team Pace		0.74					Team Pace		0.88
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Cabochard	Shook	Nukeduck	KaSing	Hjarnan		Players	Odoamne	Jankos	Selfie	VandeR	Forg1ven
Opp. Season	3	1	1	1	1		Opp. Season	2	2	3	2	3

The second hardest game of the day to talk about, this is super hard to call because these are the two tightest teams in Europe in terms of macro play, shotcalling, and analytics.

H2K is a much stronger team in the early game, but if they pick champions who spike early and fall off they risk playing into CLG.EU Vitalities possible three Rod of Ages. Vitality play such a slow style that H2K probably can’t take this risk, and must take scaling champions in most lanes, leaving only Jankos to focus on the early game (Calling it now- Lee Sin). H2K will see the return of Ryu who will almost certainly win lane, and who likely has been scrimming with the team a good deal since Selfie has spent more time on planes than he’s actually spent playing League of Legends in the past few weeks. Still, Ryu is a clear upgrade over Selfie, and I see H2K as the clear front-runner to end the split in first place.

Vitality has its own strengths though, with a likely winning top lane matchup courtesy of fantasy juggernaut Cabochard and a reasonable sense of macro play and shotcalling which could easily trip H2K up on a new patch. Both Nukeduck and Ryu are most comfortable on assassins, so the possible emergence of Zed or whoever else shouldn’t favor either team much. I personally see H2K as strongly favored, but Vitality certainly has a good shot at the upset.

Any game involving Vitality is likely to be medium to low kill, so don’t go too crazy picking players here for cash games, although it’s an excellent game to invest in for GPP’s.

Vitality

Secondary Plays

Cabochard (AD $7500, DK $6000): I’m not willing to call anyone on a team facing H2K an elite pick, but Cabo comes close. The clear best fantasy top laner of 2015 in Europe, Cabochard put up a performance to rival the best in fantasy, all while playing for a team that got relegated. Vitality is a weak team for fantasy overall, but Cabochard has remained the shining light of the team, remaining the best or second best overall pick on the team for the entire split. Never count Cabo out.

Hjarnan (AD $7800): These last two picks have less to do with the individual players, and more to do with website-specific strategies. AlphaDraft prices players relatively close together ($7800 for the most expensive VIT member, $7100 for the cheapest), and this results in the greatest point efficiency almost always belonging to the ADC and Mid of most teams. Nukeduck has been a weak pick overall, but Hjarnan embodies the trend with the highest efficiency of his team (1.91). On AlphaDraft, attempt to punt your support picks to afford optimal flex options in cash games.

Kasing (DK $4900): I don’t have much to say about Kasing specifically, rather I feel that DK has supports undercosted in general, often making the support of an underdog team by far the best pick on the team. That’s certainly the case here; Kasing can empower a pretty broken roster if Vitality win, so keep him in mind.

H2k-Gaming

Elite Plays

Odoamne (AD $8100, DK $6600): Second in his position overall in terms of projected points (20.10) and efficiency (2.48) on both sites, Odoamne is clearly the standout pick from H2K. Even though he’s laning against Vitalities strongest member, it’s still likely he’ll score well, even if he loses his lane. Odoamne has been the best or 2nd best scoring member on his team in 50% of games this split, so he takes the usual place of ADC and Mids as the most consistent player with a high floor.

Secondary Plays

Jankos (AD $7900): Similar to Trick, Jankos is a strong pick because of his consistency, and the variance of his Mid and ADC. On a team where you can’t necessarily count on Ryu or Forgiven to score especially well, Jankos the first-blood king almost always delivers a solid performance worthy of his salary. I don’t think this is the best matchup to pick players from, but Jankos is almost always a solid pick.

Vander (DK $5500): Vander is mostly being mentioned because of DKs tendency to under-cost supports, but it should be known that Vander is the second most consistent of the active support players, surprisingly behind Hylissang. Vander provides consistency but a low ceiling, so strongly consider him for cash lineups if you think H2K will beat Vitality.

Be careful about picking Forgiven- for the first time I can remember he’s been scoring poorly for fantasy, and it’s not totally clear why. He’s always very expensive though, and not worth the cost because of the variance, so think twice before selecting H2K’s primary carries; they both have exceptional variance (Recently).