LoL Grind Down: EU - Thursday, July 21st

Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace. Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match.

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Fnatic vs. Splyce

Fnatic Splyce
Article Image Vegas Sprd +163 Article Image Vegas Sprd +450
Avg. Pts. 14.7 Avg. Pts. 12.3
Avg. Pts./W 19.0 Avg. Pts./W 17.8
FB% 47% FB% 54%
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC
Players Gamsu Spirit Febiven YellOwStaR Rekkles Players Wunderwear Trashy Sencux Mikyx Kobbe
Opp. Season 4.78% 6.50% 6.79% 6.89% 8.92% Opp. Season -11.97% -12.47% -4.09% -6.11% -10.96%

The sentiment I’m seeing a lot of about this game is: Fnatic is finally headed back to the top with the addition of Kikis and a young team like Splyce just can’t match the perennial powerhouse of Fnatic, right? In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friends. Splyce is the hottest team in the west this side of TSM and their only blemish over the past 5 matchups was a split series against G2. There isn’t much to dislike about their play with important contributions coming from every role and the decisive nature of this team is a complete 180 from what we came to despise during the spring split. For Fnatic, it always seems like when they are on the edge of proving they can be dominant once again, they take a few steps back. That isn’t necessarily a reliable metric for prediction, but it does raise a few red flags. When Fnatic has lost games, it has been pretty ugly and you don’t have to look much further than Febiven’s scoreline to see that. In the team’s past 6 losses, Febiven only had more than 2 combined kills/assists in 1 of those games. So in a lost match you are looking at potentially sub five points from Febiven. Both Sencux and Perkz have had better performances in losses and if you are like me and think this is a split series, rostering Febiven is really tough because you have to rely on him having a big game to offset a potential disaster. AlphaDraft has both teams similarly priced and many people will probably pay a tiny bit more to have the Fnatic players but I’m going to suggest considering Splyce or just avoiding stacking this series all together.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

-Rekkles (DK $7,600, AD $8,200) – No player at the ADC position has had as many huge performances as Rekkles. He has 8 games this summer with 7 kills or more and his scoreline against Splyce in their last meeting was 11/1/13 over the course of those 2 games. When Febiven has been a bit off at times, Rekkles has stepped up and he and Yellowstar have to make plays if the team wants to take a shot at first place this week.

Secondary Plays

- None

Splyce

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Wunder (DK $5,800, AD $7,600) – Wunder has been thriving ever since the meta has shifted in the top lane and he’s risen to the top at his position in terms of total kills. This is the biggest test for Kikis thus far but Wunder is one of the few top laners receiving lots of resources meaning Wunder should have the tools to deal with Kikis and be a force later in the game.

-Trashy (DK $5,500, AD $7,700) – The jungle pool has so many question marks after Trick with lots of “feast or famine” type players. Trashy has been one of the best supportive junglers in Europe so he doesn’t have that same persona. He’s a safe play in cash games and anyone else cheaper carries major risk. I like him more than Spirit and I’d only value Trick higher than him on this AlphaDraft slate.

FC Schalke vs. Roccat

FC Schalke Roccat
Article Image Vegas Sprd +163 Article Image Vegas Sprd +450
Avg. Pts. 12.0 Avg. Pts. 9.5
Avg. Pts./W 17.5 Avg. Pts./W 17.0
FB% 38% FB% 44%
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC
Players Steve Gilius Fox sprattel MrRalleZ Players Parang Airwaks Betsy Raise Steelback
Opp. Season -15.50% -19.10% -17.86% -10.22% -18.78% Opp. Season 8.88% 9.31% 6.68% 8.62% -0.33%

If you buy into the rhetoric that a team with more on the line should have the extra motivation, Schalke 04 certainly fits the bill. I’m not one of those people and I try to throw out those storylines as much as possible but this is a very important series for them against Roccat who has nearly cemented themselves in the cellar. It’s worth considering basically anyone in the Schalke lineup where they are priced on both DraftKings and AlphaDraft and I wouldn’t even consider Roccat as viable punt options or low-end flex plays. This one should be all Schalke and with Roccat averaging over 16 deaths per game as a team, it doesn’t even worry me that S04 might close out the series too quickly to rack up points. They should be able to find a way to stuff the stat sheet enough for fantasy players to profit.

FC Schalke

Elite Plays

-Fox (DK $7,500, AD $7,700) – Schalke and Fox have had a rough go lately but what better cure than a match against Roccat? Betsy has an incredibly high number of deaths and Fox really excelled in their prior meeting this summer. Look for more of the same in this one. When Schalke is winning, it’s typically behind the success of Fox and this is a highly favorable matchup so I expect them to take the series.

Secondary Plays

-sprattel (DK $5,500, AD $7,300) – Kill participation is so important for supports to carry fantasy value and right now sprattel sits in 2nd among EU supports at nearly 80%. Given that statistic and the matchup, sprattel feels like the safest support for sure-fire value on this slate.

Roccat

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

Origen vs. Giants

Origen Giants
Article Image Vegas Sprd +275 Article Image Vegas Sprd +240
Avg. Pts. 14.3 Avg. Pts. 11.0
Avg. Pts./W 21.7 Avg. Pts./W 19.2
FB% 60% FB% 54%
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC
Players sOAZ Amazing PowerOfEvil Hybrid FORG1VEN Players SmittyJ Maxlore NighT Hustlin SONSTAR
Opp. Season 24.35% 29.41% 23.41% 20.34% 34.23% Opp. Season -12.19% -9.89% -5.23% -5.11% -8.99%

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t a little concerned about Giants after their 0-4 week 7 performance but I have very little faith in Origen being able to capitalize at this point even after defeating the lowly team Roccat last week. Giants are a fairly draft-reliant team meaning when they get the right champions, they seem to perform. I’ve been unimpressed by Origen in that phase and it’s a reason many don’t consider when looking at fantasy lineups but if players like NighT or SONSTAR get their hands on the champions they prefer, they become a threat to even the top teams in the league. Origen, like Roccat, is surrendering a huge amount of deaths per game and Giants have been one of the more aggressive teams when it comes to capitalizing on opponents mistakes. There should be value in this one based on game length as well so I can see Origen players being viable, I just don’t trust them enough to confidently roster them in cash games. Amazing in someone who is potentially worth a shot as a flex option on DraftKings in GPP formats but there are too many players in that salary range that I prefer more than OG players.

Origen

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Origen Team (DK $4,400, AD $3,400) – Despite sitting in last place, Origen in the team slot has been a fantasy provider for weeks but many people don’t seem to notice. They are in the top 4 on both AD and DK for points per game and if they can manage to just split the series, they will be tremendous value and even without a win they will still likely be worth the risk because of their ability to trade objectives well enough to grab fantasy points here and there.

Giants

Elite Plays

-SONSTAR (DK $7,200, AD $7,700) – This is another player who is off the radar for many daily players because he isn’t the best player on his team and he doesn’t carry the same name value as others at his position but I love him on this slate. He has a favorable matchup against Origen’s new ADC Toaster, and up until last weekend he was putting up some ridiculous numbers. I think he and the rest of Giants will return to form against Origen and playing against the team that gives up over 13 deaths per game is a perfect storm for a bloodthirsty player like SONSTAR.

Secondary Plays

-SmittyJ (DK $6,400, AD $7,100) – I’ve probably burned you before suggesting SmittyJ but this time is different. Well, not really much is different in that I’m still recommending him but on AlphaDraft he is one of the lowest salary top laner while in a favorable matchup which is already a good sign. From the eye test, I watched him almost manage to carry the game against Splyce and a weaker team like Origen might not be able to control the snowball from SmittyJ.

G2 Esports vs. Unicorns of Love

G2 Esports Unicorns of Love
Article Image Vegas Sprd -120 Article Image Vegas Sprd +900
Avg. Pts. 16.5 Avg. Pts. 13.4
Avg. Pts./W 19.1 Avg. Pts./W 18.7
FB% 38% FB% 45%
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC
Players Kikis Trick PerkZ Mithy Zven Players Vizicasacsi Move Exileh Hylissang Veritas
Opp. Season 19.60% 13.18% 10.40% 0.82% -0.22% Opp. Season -9.78% -5.68% -4.45% -2.67% -3.58%

The second half of this summer split has been the Cinderella story that made Unicorns of Love a popular team when they first entered the LCS. Can they continue their rise up the EU ranks against G2? If you ask me, that’s just not going to happen. Yes, UOL has improved in almost every facet of their game but I just don’t think they have the individual or team skill to hang with G2 even for a brief series. I think they have an outside shot at winning a game but G2 has looked very good against inferior opponents this season and their only real struggles have been against top teams like Fnatic and Splyce. Trick in particular has been spectacular and he is my primary target in this game even if I’m not high on the other G2 players. Just because I like G2 to win the series, doesn’t mean I’m going to be stacking this game. For one, it’s a difficult task to stack the highest salary players on a given slate. The other issue is the potential for G2 to win these games through superior macro play and not allowing the game to get sloppy enough to generate a high kill total. For that reason, I’m fading on both teams largely and I don’t even think the UOL players will hit value as one-off punt plays.

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

-Trick (DK $6,600, AD $8,200) – In cash games, Trick is the most reliable jungler to slot in and it’s by a pretty significant margin. I might balk at paying up for him on AlphaDraft and opt to go a bit cheaper but on DraftKings he is one of my top priorities. Trick has exceeded the 10 assist mark in 4 of his last 10 games and he is likely to manage something close to that in at least one of the two games versus UOL.

Secondary Plays

- None

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

H2k vs. Vitality

H2k Vitality
Article Image Vegas Sprd +175 Article Image Vegas Sprd +350
Avg. Pts. 12.0 Avg. Pts. 13.0
Avg. Pts./W 17.7 Avg. Pts./W 18.7
FB% 52% FB% 66%
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC DvP Rks Top Jng Mid Supp ADC
Players Odoamne Jankos Ryu VandeR Freeze Players Cabochard MightBear Nukeduck KaSing Police
Opp. Season 1.89% -1.72% -2.10% -2.39% 2.89% Opp. Season -10.06% -9.53% -13.54% -10.16% -3.18%

I will be watching this game because I have to but it doesn’t mean I’m going to enjoy it. I can see these games being the ones that go on for 40 minutes with 6 combined kills until one team eventually throws a teamfight and the other one wins. These are two of the more passive teams that really struggle in the late game and they are also on the lower end of the spectrum when it comes to generating fantasy points. On one hand you have H2K who has been on a terrible downward spiral over the past few weeks and Vitality who is rising, but they can only get so much better with their current roster. The key matchup will be Cabochard against Odoamne and I want Cabo in that one without question. In the past 14 games, Odoamne has 1 with more than 3 kills. There is not a single H2K player I want in my lineup and it’s going to be tough to roster Vitality players as well. I’m predicting this is a split and I don’t want to devote much salary into this matchup let alone be forced to watch it.

H2k

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

- None

Vitality

Elite Plays

- None

Secondary Plays

-Cabochard (DK $6,000, AD $7,600) – With Vitality on a bit of an upswing, I’m surprised to see where some of their players are priced relative to H2K on DraftKings but I’ll take it when looking at Cabochard in the top lane. He is averaging almost 7.5 assists in his past 6 games and he has had 4 or more kills in half of those games as well. With Odoamne really struggling, it’s time to target him in this matchup and grab Cabochard at a relatively cheap salary.

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About the Author

Airbudgoldenrec
Airbudgoldenrec

Robert “AirBud” Marshall has been following the League of Legends competitve scene for over 3 years across all 4 major regions. He started his website “DFS League of Legends” during Worlds 2015 with the introduction of Esports on DraftKings. Prior to that, Robert was an avid fantasy football, baseball, and basketball player in both season long and daily formats. Follow him on Twitter: @Airbudgoldenrec