LoL Grind Down: EU Week 2 Day 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
We are through four games in the EU LCS and while we had hoped the first week would paint a clearer picture of how things will shake down throughout the split, the image is just as murky as it was when we began. Surprise performances from Schalke, and Splyce were nice to see while the stumbles of H2K and the turmoil of Origen leaves us scratching our heads. As we get back into the action we have some interesting matchups to start the week despite the lack of headline grabbing battles like we saw last week. A quick note before we get into breaking down the games: Be sure to keep your eye on the Defense versus Position (DvP) stat we have available. The percentage noted there displays what % more or less a team is allowing to the opposition at a given position. If the number is a negative percentage, that means the team is giving up “x” percent less points to that position based on the average. Essentially, a team that is allowing a high % (in the positives) they are giving up more points than the average at that position. At this point in the season, you can’t weight that too heavily but as the season goes on that statistic will become more and more valuable.
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H2K vs. Giants
| H2K | Giants | |||||||||||
 | Record | 20-12 |  | Record | 3-19 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -198 | Vegas Sprd | +1350 | |||||||||
| Avg. KP | Avg. KP | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 20.00 | Team Pace | ||||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Odoamne | Jankos | Ryu | VandeR | Freeze | Players | SmittyJ | Maxlore | NighT | Hustlin | SONSTAR | |
| Opp. Season | 9.45% | 4.60% | 3.46% | 0.51% | 11.72% | Opp. Season | -20.42% | -15.42% | -12.58% | -13.90% | -22.04% | |
It’s tough to get a read on just how bad the Giants are after facing Fnatic and G2 both of which were losses. That being said we can safely assume they are still bad enough to be in danger of a sweep at the hands of H2K. The Giants may have some value at some point in the season for daily fantasy so it’s good for them to just get the top teams out of the way and it’s safe to avoid all players on that roster. H2K looked decent in the first week but they appear a bit weak in late game teamfighting which hurt their player’s fantasy value a bit. I don’t expect that to be an issue against Giants but it is something to keep an eye on going forward. Playing H2K players in this slate doesn’t necessarily maximize upside but it does present safety which should be something worth targeting in cash games.
H2K
Elite Plays
-Jankos (DK $7,300, AD $7,800) – What else is there to say other than I told you so? Jokes aside, I don’t think anyone would have predicted quite a monster first week from Jankos and he’s primed for another one here. As if his 34 assists in 4 games wasn’t enough, he topped it off with a 93% kill participation and in another favorable matchup, he should be able to dominate again all over the map.
Secondary Plays
-Ryu (DK $8,400, AD $8,100) – The one player stuffing the stat sheet for H2K in Week 1 was Ryu and he comes in this week with an excellent matchup. As Freeze seems to be more of a secondary carry in this iteration of H2K, Ryu has a bit more on his shoulders which is good for fantasy. He had a solid 77% kill participation in the first 4 games which places him above Perkz and Febiven and he’s against a team that surrendered 74 deaths in their first 4 games. Prefer this play in AD over DK but it’s safe either way.
Giants
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
- None
Team Vitality vs. Origen
| Team Vitality | Origen | |||||||||||
 | Record |  | Record | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | +130 | Vegas Sprd | +476 | |||||||||
| Avg. KP | Avg. KP | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | Team Pace | |||||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Cabochard | MightBear | Nukeduck | KaSing | Police | Players | sOAZ | Amazing | PowerOfEvil | Hybrid | FORG1VEN | |
| Opp. Season | -18.87% | -17.21% | -18.32% | -16.32% | -3.55% | Opp. Season | 30.04% | 39.40% | 29.20% | 15.80% | 38.80% | |
Origen is once again at the forefront of LCS breaking news and this time it’s taking a strange turn. The team has decided to remove Forg1ven from the starting lineup (and potentially the team all together) which lead them to move xPeke into the lineup…at ADC. Though not unprecedented, a position change in the twilight of xPeke’s career could make things very difficult for Origen, even if the move is temporary. In light of that, you have to feel good about Vitality’s chances in this one. Combine that roster move with the overall struggles from OG in the first two sets and you have what looks like a one-sided affair. Some may be inclined to believe in OG but the fact that they secured an alarmingly low 25 kills through 4 games has me completely avoiding them for this slate. This matchup likely will be on the lower end of the spectrum as far as total fantasy potential so I’ll be only considering one or two Vitality players at the most.
Team Vitality
Elite Plays
-Cabochard (DK $6,800, AD $7,600) – I continue to go back to the well with Cabo and while he didn’t perform like a monster in the first week, the tools are still there and his kill participation being at nearly 90%, it’s a good sign of things to come. SoaZ is generally a decent matchup for most top laners and with the weak pool at this position in the region, I like grabbing a player like Cabochard with his massive upside even though his floor is relatively low.
Secondary Plays
-Police (DK $7,700, AD $8,000) – If I told you any ADC was going to be up against a former mid laner moving to ADC for his first time in a competitive match with a support that has played only 4 games with his new team, you probably wouldn’t care which ADC it was. And that’s the case for Police. I’m not too entirely worried about how well he played in the first week, this matchup is just heavily in his favor. Even if it doesn’t directly result in kills in lane, the lead a real ADC can build up should be enough to give Police the tools to carry the game. I’m buying on this one.
Origen
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
- None
Fnatic vs. Unicorns of Love
| Fnatic | Unicorns of Love | |||||||||||
 | Record |  | Record | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -144 | Vegas Sprd | +935 | |||||||||
| Avg. KP | Avg. KP | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | Team Pace | |||||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Gamsu | Spirit | Febiven | YellOwStaR | Rekkles | Players | Vizicasacsi | Move | Exileh | Hylissang | Veritas | |
| Opp. Season | 23.03% | 26.39% | 20.67% | 28.61% | 27.12% | Opp. Season | -10.78% | -9.77% | -0.50% | -3.32% | -0.30% | |
I am not a Fnatic fan and you could make a good case to say that I am far from it but I feel like this team could be the best in EU at the moment. They looked a bit sloppy against an underrated Team Vitality but the talent is there and the secondary players such as Gamsu and Spirit look to be improving with their team synergy. Even if I’m wrong about Fnatic, they may still be the best fantasy team in the region so I’m willing to dump a good portion of my salary pool into standouts like Febiven and Rekkles especially against a disjointed UOL team. I’m interested in Spirit as well but I think you can find value elsewhere at this position. It isn’t that UOL is a bad team but they just don’t look like a team that is all on the same page. Move went from having one of the worst days I’ve ever seen in the first set and came back very strong in the second set. Even if we get something in between I don’t expect UOL to have the guns to hold off Fnatic and its safe to avoid them in cash games. I can see Vizicsacsi or Move being one-off options in GPP formats but other than that it’s advisable to stay clear.
Fnatic
Elite Plays
-Rekkles (DK $7,700, AD $8,200) – I’m not usually a Rekkles guy and I think he’s often a bit overrated but I’m convinced he is the best ADC play for this slate. Even if he was the highest salary player I’d be inclined to consider him as such but since he is not, expect his ownership numbers to be quite high. UOL has a shaky bottom lane with Veritas at ADC and the reformed Fnatic combo doesn’t appear to have skipped a beat.
-Febiven (DK $7,700 Only) – It’s not that I’m totally against paying up for Febiven on Alphadraft, but I just think his value is far greater in cash games on DraftKings. I’ll be more inclined to look at Ryu or even Betsy on AD but with Febiven in that second salary tier on DK, I’m likely not going to pass up on him. Either way it’s hard to go wrong with a player that has a 12.0 KDA through the first 4 games in a favorable matchup.
Secondary Plays
-Fnatic Team (DK $5,400, AD $3,700) – Not much to say here. This will probably be the heaviest play in cash games and I don’t think Fnatic will have any trouble putting together a 2-0 series against UOL.
Unicorns of Love
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Vizicsacsi (DK $5,600, AD $7,200) – For starters I’m not sold on this play which is why I have this slotted as a secondary play. This is more of a one-off play so that I can stack the G2 vs ROC game. Having said that he does have one standout performance on the season with a 7/1/10 line against Origen so we know Vizi is capable of carrying. It really just depends on if UOL focuses on getting him ahead of Gamsu. Personally, I think it is one of their few win conditions so they may identify that and exploit FNC’s weakest lane.
ROCCAT vs. G2 Esports
| ROCCAT | G2 Esports | |||||||||||
 | Record |  | Record | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -162 | Vegas Sprd | +1073 | |||||||||
| Avg. KP | Avg. KP | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | Team Pace | |||||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Parang | Airwaks | Betsy | Raise | Steelback | Players | Kikis | Trick | PerkZ | Mithy | Zven | |
| Opp. Season | -4.48% | -0.36% | -6.40% | -3.63% | -10.38% | Opp. Season | 38.44% | 30.08% | 20.81% | 29.16% | 13.67% | |
As I said before, I’m not so convinced that G2 is the top team in Europe and when you just watch their macro play something seems a bit off, yet teams haven’t managed to punish them very heavily. Don’t get me wrong they are still a very strong team but an aggressive team that forces them to react could be a threat. Roccat may just be that team. This new iteration of Roccat definitely appears better than what we saw in spring and the addition of Steelback looks like it was the right move. The jury is still out on top laner Parang but I think he will do enough to survive against Kikis. Overall I expect this to be the biggest bloodbath of a series and I think Roccat certainly has some upset potential. If you are feeling risky, I’m not opposed to even taking them in the team slot in a lineup though there are better options out there. Roccat currently sits in the top 2 of both total kills and deaths so both teams have viability and this is the one matchup worth considering stacking on both sides.
ROCCAT
Elite Plays
-Steelback (DK $6,000 Only) – This is almost certainly a DK only play and you may be thinking about how terrible this matchup looks on paper but I don’t think it matters. Individually, yes Steelback and Raise are not at the talent level of Zven and Mithy but ultimately the team plays around this duo well and it’s a steal at this salary. Steelback’s 10% higher kill participation total speaks to that team concept.
Secondary Plays
-Betsy (DK $5,800, AD $7,500) – Betsy continues to be one of the more undervalued mid laners in the region probably because of his high death totals but his aggression is also what makes him an interesting mid lane or flex option. With both Perkz and Betsy having similar styles, I can see them dueling heavily and I think Betsy can hold his own enough to provide value in what should be a high kill total affair.
G2 Esports
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Everyone – So this is technically a cop out but I’ll explain my reasoning. Do I think I would pay up for G2 players at the salaries where they are compared to the likes of Fnatic? Probably not. Do I want to get one or two G2 players in my lineup? Yes. This matchup will probably provide a solid fantasy outcome on both sides and that will most likely favor G2. The point is that I would rather have stock in the likes of Fnatic who I believe will exceed the value of G2 at a better price. I’ll go ahead and rank where I see value for the players of G2: Perkz, Kikis, Trick, Zven, Mithy.
Splyce vs. FC Schalke 04
| Splyce | FC Schalke 04 | |||||||||||
 | Record |  | Record | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | +507 | Vegas Sprd | +120 | |||||||||
| Avg. KP | Avg. KP | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | Team Pace | |||||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Wunderwear | Trashy | Sencux | Mikyx | Kobbe | Players | Steve | Gilius | Fox | sprattel | MrRalleZ | |
| Opp. Season | -31.21% | -33.48% | -17.30% | -25.04% | -27.75% | Opp. Season | -15.21% | -24.24% | -19.05% | -11.87% | -27.30% | |
This has to be the most surprisingly interesting matchup of the weekend because both teams look far better than expected. Splyce apparently forgot that they were a passive, uncoordinated team and it paid off for them as they proceeded to break even last week. Meanwhile Schalke 04 is right near the top of the tables after winning one series and splitting the other. The addition of Fox was clearly a big upgrade but it also enables MrRalleZ to be more flexible and both players are solid fantasy options though I’m more partial to MrRalleZ as the mid lane has a wide variety of viable options. Splyce is a pretty balanced team but obviously Wunder is still the biggest weak point. Gillius has impressed me but I still don’t trust him. Sure, his performance over 4 games was better than we’ve ever seen from him but it’s still not a consideration for me and I actually like Trashy even more.
Splyce
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Mykix (DK $4,300, AD $6,900) – Though he was the only addition to the Splyce line-up, Mykix had a pretty significant impact in his first weekend in the highest level. I’m not sure how much he had an impact on the time but the playstyle looks vastly different from the team we saw in spring. His 84% kill participation ranks 2nd among supports and while S04 is the favorite, I’m okay with him in this slot because I think he has some nice sleeper potential in cash or GPP lineups.
-Trashy (DK $5,000 only) – Trashy was one of the few positives down the stretch for Splyce in the spring and he looks even better now. He is just behind Jankos in almost every major statistical category and he looks more comfortable on the team that now seems to have a purpose. He won’t be the monster he was last week but he should be solid and hit value which is what you look for when you punt at the jungle position.
FC Schalke 04
Elite Plays
-MrRalleZ (AD $7,600 Only) – So we kinda have a rule around here that it’s not smart to pit a support and opposing ADC against each other and I generally think it’s a decent rule. However, in the current meta where we see lane swaps so frequently I’m not so sure it is 100% what we should live by. MrRalleZ is in a great place on AD and I think he has pretty high upside with limited downside as well. He showed in both series’ that he is capable of being the hard carry or the supportive type of ADC so here’s to hoping the hard carry version of him shows up in this matchup. I would rank him right behind Rekkles when it comes to ADC’s I’m targeting.
Secondary Plays
-Steve (DK $7,200, AD $7,100) – If you take out the one game where Odoamne and H2K absolutely destroyed Steve, he has only 1 death in his other 3 games. Heading into a matchup against Wunder(wear) puts him in line for another solid performance and I’m leaning towards this play on AlphaDraft more heavily than DraftKings.