LoL Grind Down: EU Week 2 Day 2

by wazzu24 Last Updated 2016-06-10 22:45:11

Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace.

Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match

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Team Vitality vs. ROCCAT

Team Vitality							ROCCAT
			Record		0-3-0					Record		0-3-0
			Vegas Sprd		+137					Vegas Sprd		+478
			Avg. KP							Avg. KP
			Team Pace							Team Pace
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Cabochard	MightBear	Nukeduck	KaSing	Police		Players	Parang	Airwaks	Betsy	Raise	Steelback
Opp. Season	-18.87%	-17.21%	-18.32%	-16.32%	-3.55%		Opp. Season	-4.48%	-0.36%	-6.40%	-3.63%	-10.38%

Thanks to Riot’s strange decision to place each region of the LCS on a different format, we’ve been handed a series between two teams which are both winless, yet also undefeated. That’s right, both Vitality and ROCCAT come into the fourth game day of the season as the only teams to have tied all three of their matches this season. One would have to think that another tie is very much in the cards here. ROCCAT come in looking like an improved team that could break through to the playoffs after a poor Sping Split. Mid laner Betsy’s play has picked up, while Steeelback is a clear upgrade over the team’s previous ADCs. In general, this team has simply raised its level throughout every phase of the game. The team’s total of 77 kills in just six games, three of which were losses, is very appealing.

Vitality’s performances have been below where many would have expected them to be. Inconsistent game to game and a loss to an Origen team who had to place xPeke at ADC in the emergency replacement of FORG1VEN. To me, it’s inexcusable to lose a game at the professional level when facing a team who was forced to make a move like that. Still, Cabochard remains one of Europe’s big guns and ROCCAT isn’t a team that is likely to sweep many others. Another tie makes sense here, which gives potential for value on both sides. Do note that while Reje will likely play once again, it would be wise to keep an eye out to see if Police subs back in.

Team Vitality

Elite Plays

Cabochard (DK $6,700, AD $7,700) – I thought Cabochard was a monster on Thursday and was one of the most exciting players to watch. He senses that the team around him isn’t playing up to par and knows he must pick up the slack.

Secondary Plays

Nukeduck (DK $7,600, AD $7,900) – Given the likelihood of a split in this series, Nukeduck is bumped down to a secondary play for me. He’s the big carry for Vitality right now, but we also aim to have our expensive players win both games in their series.

ROCCAT

Elite Plays

Steeelback (DK $6,600, AD $7,500) – This is a spot where we can get away with the risk of a carry not sweeping his series. This is a discounted price on both sites and regardless of whether he’s facing Police or Reje, Steeelback will have the advantage all game.

Secondary Plays

None. Don’t be too heavy on a likely 1-1.

Splyce vs. G2 Esports

Splyce							G2 Esports
			Record		1-2-0					Record		2-1-0
			Vegas Sprd		+1215					Vegas Sprd		-186
			Avg. KP							Avg. KP
			Team Pace							Team Pace
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Wunderwear	Trashy	Sencux	Mikyx	Kobbe		Players	Kikis	Trick	PerkZ	Mithy	Zven
Opp. Season	-31.21%	-33.48%	-17.30%	-25.04%	-27.75%		Opp. Season	38.44%	30.08%	20.81%	29.16%	13.67%

The most important thing to note for this game is that we’re unlikely to know whether or not Kikis or Expect will start. There’s a real possibility that both will play one game, as they did on Thursday. Expect’s performance was unlike what we see from Kikis. He regularly threw himself into the thick of things and as a result had a fantasy friendly stat line, but also died 7 times and G2 lost. In a total guess, I think G2 will continue to play Kikis for at least one game each series. Regardless, we can’t pick either. As for G2 on the whole, they’re still the top team and a tie with an upstart ROCCAT isn’t the end of the world.

Splyce grabbed their first win of the season in a series that we spoke about quite a bit on Wednesday night’s Grinders Live show. We agreed that Splyce is ready to take steps forward that they were unable to do earlier this year and I could see them stealing a game from G2. And if G2 decides to run a different top laner for each game, advantage Splyce. More on it below, but Splyce players are going to be sneaky targets at cheap prices in this game. One further point which we often spoke about during the spring was that Splyce had incredibly low Pace stats. So far this year, they seem far more willing to battle than ever before, which is a big boost to fantasy performances.

Splyce

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Kobbe (DK $6.000, AD $7,400) – While we try not to pick into the duo of Zven and Mithy, Kobbe and Mikyx don’t look so shabby either. In the first week of the season, Kobbe’s KP was 84%, which is extremely high for an ADC.

G2 Esports

Elite Plays

Perkz (DK $8,200, AD $8,400) – Some have been saying that Perkz hasn’t quite perked up for this season yet, but I’m not in that camp. I see him as a leading player in his team and in his role in Europe. He’s been strong statistically and there’s little reason to not see him as an elite play in most matches.

Secondary Plays

Trick (DK $7,200, AD $8,100) – Given the extremely expensive prices that we’re being offered on G2 players, I’m bumping Trick down just a hair. It’s less that Trick isn’t worth this price and more that Splyce isn’t a pushover and paying for more than one G2 stud is a risk I won’t be taking in cash games.

Giants vs. Unicorns of Love

Giants							Unicorns of Love
			Record		0-0-3					Record		1-0-2
			Vegas Sprd		+700					Vegas Sprd		-111
			Avg. KP							Avg. KP
			Team Pace							Team Pace
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	SmittyJ	Maxlore	NighT	Hustlin	SONSTAR		Players	Vizicasacsi	Move	Exileh	Hylissang	Veritas
Opp. Season	-20.42%	-15.42%	-12.58%	-13.90%	-22.04%		Opp. Season	-10.78%	-9.77%	-0.50%	-3.32%	-0.30%

I’d usually use this spot to talk about disappointing I consider Unicorns of Love to be, and they are, but drawing Giants on Friday is going to be tough to pass up. This new Unicorns roster hasn’t had the time to gel and even if and when they do, I’m not convinced the talent to be successful in this league is there anyway. Statistically, it’s ugly. Only our go-to Vizicsacsi has had any positives in the early game and the KP% is low across the board. I don’t like what I’m seeing and will be cautious with UOL even against Giants.

Speaking of, the leagues worst team still has yet to grab a single game. They’re the only team to have not stolen a game yet and if they’re ever going to, it’s spots like this where they need to. I can’t recommend Giants players with any real confidence, so proceed with them with caution, but I will be sprinkling them into my teams. I think Giants will finish the season in last place, just not with zero wins. This could be one. It’s worth mentioning that they weren’t noncompetitive against H2k yesterday, often pushing H2k far closer to a potential loss than they probably ever saw coming.

Giants

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Night (DK $6,300, AD $7,000) – While I need to see more, Night is the one Giants player that at least some seem to believe possesses some talent. Again, I can’t endorse that yet, but Exileh hasn’t been much better.

Unicorns of Love

Elite Plays

Vizicsacsi (DK $6,900, AD $7,500) – This is a particularly strong play on AlphaDraft, where Csacsi is relatively cheaper. He’s elite on both sites though, especially when factoring in that G2 top laners are likely must fades.

Secondary Plays

Move (DK $6,600, AD $7,400) – With 103 deaths, Giants were built to be picked on by junglers. Typically the highest KP role among damage dealers, Move’s is quite low at under 60%. This is a great spot to raise that, and in a big way.

H2K vs. Fnatic

H2K							Fnatic
			Record		1-2-0					Record		2-1-0
			Vegas Sprd		+370					Vegas Sprd		+161
			Avg. KP							Avg. KP
			Team Pace							Team Pace
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Odoamne	Jankos	Ryu	VandeR	Freeze		Players	Gamsu	Spirit	Febiven	YellOwStaR	Rekkles
Opp. Season	9.45%	4.60%	3.46%	0.51%	11.72%		Opp. Season	23.03%	26.39%	20.67%	28.61%	27.12%

Now is the time for players like Freeze and Yellowstar to show just how valuable they can be to their teams. Rekkles struggled throughout most of this year, with only small stretches of sustained success as a carry. He gained Yellowstar and if his leadership is as good as advertised, it means big things for Fnatic’s bottom lane. Freeze came from one of the shortest lived teams we’ve ever seen in Renegades and is now trying to fill some pretty big shoes. We’ll probably never see FORG1VEN again, but we could be seeing a void in his place on H2k if Freeze doesn’t get comfortable, and fast.

Rekkles leads the league with a CSD@10 of 12.0 and is the 2nd highest projected ADC in our system on this slate. He’s been much improved and even boasts a KP of 75%. Freeze’s numbers simply don’t compare right now, having a KDA that would still be lower than Rekkles’ even if we doubled it. Simply put, advantage to Fnatic in the most important lane, and thus in the series. I like Fnatic’s chances of a 2-0 statement here and will be leaning their way in fantasy. The split is always a possibility between two strong teams, but nonetheless I will be largely avoiding Freeze and his teammates.

H2K

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Jankos (DK $5,500, AD $7,600) – If anyone on H2k has been stepping up, it’s been Jankos. I feel that he’s been a little on the inconsistent side this year at times, so this is nice to see. Jankos’ big start includes a line of 17/12/51 in just 6 games. An 87% KP leads all junglers. Gold and damage share are also strong for Jankos, who will need to have a monster performance to top Fnatic.

Fnatic

Elite Plays

Rekkles (DK $7,600, AD $8,000) – I’ll likely be pairing up Rekkles with Yellowstar. The duo are reunited and YS is supporting Rekkles across the map, both having KPs higher than 75%. This should be their big statement.

Febiven (DK $7,500, AD $8,300) – For all the talk of Rekkles and Yellowstar being back together, it’s still Febi who leads the team in damagea, even despite receiving significantly less gold than Rekkles thus far. Don’t sleep on Febi in favor of Rekkles on all your teams.

Secondary Plays

None.

FC Schalke 04 vs. Origen

FC Schalke 04							Origen
			Record		1-1-1					Record		0-1-2
			Vegas Sprd		+213					Vegas Sprd		+220
			Avg. KP							Avg. KP
			Team Pace							Team Pace
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks
DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC		DvP Rks	Top	Jng	Mid	Supp	ADC
Players	Steve	Gilius	Fox	sprattel	MrRalleZ		Players	sOAZ	Amazing	PowerOfEvil	Hybrid	FORG1VEN
Opp. Season	-15.21%	-24.24%	-19.05%	-11.87%	-27.30%		Opp. Season	30.04%	39.40%	29.20%	15.80%	38.80%

Interestingly, the bookmakers see a draw is a fairly strong favorite here. I have to admit I’m still surprised that xPeke managed to win a game at the professional level as an ADC in 2016. Small advantages turn into wins these days and I have to see Schalke as a slight favorite as a result. xPeke held his own better than I’d have imagined and deserves credit for it, but Schalke now have the advantage of watching film of his ADC play. A split in this series still makes sense, as the odds suggest, so I’m not focusing on any one team or player here in the end. I will mention that the talk of Schalke, or Elements 2.0, is overblown. This is a slightly upgraded roster that is still a favorite to miss the playoffs. If they are going to be one of those outsider teams to crack the playoffs though, then this is exactly the type of series in which they need to find a 2-0 sweep.

FC Schalke 04

Elite Plays

MrRalleZ (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – Even after the addition of Fox, I still see MrRalleZ as Elem… Excuse me, Schalke’s best player.

Secondary Plays

Fox (DK $7,200, AD $7,900) – That said, Fox is a significant upgrade over former mid laner Eika, and has already amassed 33 kills on the season. RalleZ’s number will surely rise, however it sits at a paltry 15 right now.

Origen

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

Amazing (DK $5,900, AD $7,200) – Perhaps surprisingly, I’ve been more impressed with Amazing so far this summer than I ever had been previously. While he does lead his team in deaths, a 75% KP and respectable stats in general are an improvement from the spring. Overaggressive at times, but similar to a player like Cabochard, perhaps he sees the issues within his teams and understands that plays must be made, and is willing to be the one to make them.

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