LoL Grind Down: NA LCS - Saturday, February 20th
Welcome back to the League of Legends Grind Down. Unforeseen circumstances have lead us to this makeshift Grind Down for the day, but your regularly scheduled Grind Down will return tomorrow. Apologies for the less attractive version, but rest assured the content largely the same.
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NRG eSports vs. Team Dignitas
After being swept last week by CLG and Echo Fox, NRG eSports has played themselves out of the conversation as one of the top teams in North America. Even a playoff berth could be in question without more consistent play. Saturday’s game against Team Dignitas is a must win heading into Sunday’s showdown with Cloud9. Thankfully for NRG’s sake, Dignitas remains a level behind. A back to the basics approach would suit NRG well for this game and I expect to see as much. A vanilla draft and intelligent play is more than enough to defeat their 3-7 opponent.
For Dignitas, this is the type of game they need to be competitive in if they are going to have a chance to stave off being in the relegation playoffs. One of Dignitas, Impulse and Echo Fox should avoid that unfortunate honor, and striking down a wildly inconsistent NRG team would be a leg up on Dignitas’ main opposition. A Dignitas win isn’t all that farfetched and I’ll have my eye on this game to see if NRG can respond to the mounting pressure from their inconsistent play.
The two teams haven’t played since the first game of the season, but it’s worth noting that it was one of the bloodiest games of the split, with both teams finishing in the NRG win with 16 kills.
NRG eSports
Elite Plays
Impact – Rocking an 82.5% KP, Impact has one of the highest KPs you will ever see for a top laner. NRG can be expected to win this game, but genuinely poor play at times keep others in the secondary category.
Secondary Plays
GBM, KonKwon – Moon has been the weakest link by most accounts, but Altec’s play has left much to be desired. That isn’t to say that GBM has been at his best, but a more controlled style against a weaker opponent would do wonders for him. If I’m spending up, I’m probably looking at other players than Altec at that position.
Team Dignitas
Elite plays
None.
Secondary plays
Shiphtur, Apollo – Both Shiphtur and Apollo make fair one offs in rosters where you want a high upside player to fill one salary-saving slot to allow yourself to pay up elsewhere.
Renegades vs. Immortals
Without significant improvement or roster changes, teams who face off against Renegades are highly unlikely to lose. It’s disappointing when any team simply can’t perform, but we’ve seen several teams across North America improve greatly from where they were earlier in the season, and it’s only left Renegades further in the dust. With eight games left in the season, Renegades eyes should be on potential roster moves to improve their team to try to survive relegation and live to fight another day this summer. Unfortunately, there have been no signs of that and it would be surprising if they won a game the rest of the way.
Immortals, of course, need no introduction. It was nice to see Cloud9 push Immortals in a way that other teams haven’t been able to last week, but their first loss will have to wait for another time. This game comes down to whether or not Renegades can put up enough of a fight that Immortals players can pay off their very high salaries. I’m not so sure they can.
Renegades
Okay, listen. Yesterday both Splyce and Giants Gaming won on the same day. Anything’s possible, but let’s not convince ourselves that lightning will strike twice for the minnows of LCS.
Immortals
Elite Plays
Reignover, WildTurtle – All of Immortals carry very high salaries, but I can find just enough room to pay for one or both of WildTurtle and Reignover. Turtle has been unstoppable this season and Reignover hasn’t slowed down in his dominating form from last season. I’m largely off the rest of Immortals because it’s just very difficult for all Immortals players to post big scores against a team this poor. Pobelter scored just 10.68 DraftKings points in their previous game against Renegades. They’re slightly more manageable on AlphaDraft, though.
Secondary Plays
None.
Team SoloMid vs. Cloud9
The third game of the afternoon is certainly our game of the day, with a confident TSM taking on a resurgent Cloud9. It dropped early this week that TSM had fired their former head coach, but coming off their biggest win of the season against CLG, I think we can have faith that TSM are headed in the right direction. Former coach Woodbuck wasn’t in charge of TSM’s in-game play, so the firing isn’t a big concern for us. What we’re looking at is the 21 kill show that TSM put on last week against CLG. Every player on the team made both great individual plays as well as worked well with their teammates. It’s just one game, sure, but if this is the TSM that we see for the remainder of the season, they could be the team that challenges Immortals in the playoffs.
All that said, Cloud9 aren’t your average 6-4 team. With Hai in the lineup, C9’s only losses are to TSM in Week 3 and to Immortals last week, which was Immortals’ toughest game yet. Cloud9 came prepared with an excellent game plan and executed it quite well, but Immortals were just too good. Despite the loss, it was still a great showing and I fully expect C9 to throw TSM off their game as well.
TSM
Elite Plays
Hauntzer – Given the play of players on both teams, the only lane where I would consider one team to have a significant edge immediately upon entering the rift is the top lane.
Secondary Plays
Bjergsen, Doublelift, YellOwStaR – You’ll notice there’s a name missing there. Svenskeren isn’t on the level of his teammates right now and may never be. However, this game has a great chance to have the most kills of the day, so TSM’s primary threats are strong tournament plays.
Cloud9
Elite Plays
Sneaky, Jensen, Rush – The three big guns on Cloud9, who is the favorite, are actually priced lower than their TSM counterparts on both DraftKings and AlphaDraft. This game may be something of a coin flip, but the value on these three studs is difficult to pass. Rush is a near must in cash games.
Secondary Plays
None.
Counter Logic Gaming vs. Team Impulse
After the shellacking dealt to CLG last week by TSM, they’ll be looking to pick up a 2-0 weekend with Team Impulse and and Renegades being the ducks in a row. CLG remains one of the top teams in North America and should take care of an Impulse team that has never quite improved as much as I would have hoped after their roster stabilized. A 23 minute win over Impulse in their previous game certainly does not excite me when it comes to CLG’s fantasy prospects.
As awesome as it is to talk about Gate and his trip around the Rift across different roles, he and his teammates have stagnated since showing signs of life earlier in the season. CLG have holes, but Impulse don’t have the ability or preparedness to exploit them.
Counter Logic Gaming
Elite plays
HuHI – HuHi’s 32.7% of total damage by CLG players this Split makes him the top CLG play of the day. He leads the team in kills and has been a more consistent threat than ADC Stixxay.
Secondary Plays
Stixxay – Affordable on both sites, Stixxay is a great play Saturday even if HuHi has stolen some of the damage spotlight. Still not being given credit for filling Doublelift’s shoes quite well, he’s been an strong player for fantasy as well as on the Rift.
Team Liquid vs. Echo Fox
Although TSM and Cloud9 are the game of the day, I am nearly as excited about this one. There’s been a lot of talk about how Liquid have improved since potential MVP Dardoch moved into IWillDominate’s role with the team, but the wins just have not been there. At 5-5, Team Liquid still should find their way into the playoffs, but a loss to Echo Fox today would be extremely costly. Liquid are faced with a game against Immortals tomorrow, while Echo Fox gets Impulse. A bad 24 hours and Liquid could find themselves on the outside looking in. So a win here is paramount for Liquid, who are in genuine danger of becoming one of the bottom tier teams.
On the other side of the map will be Echo Fox, who suddenly look dangerous with their full roster coming off a win against NRG. Rick Fox’s team has a legitimate path to the playoffs and that has to have them excited after what was nearly a lost season. Liquid are the favorite here, but Echo Fox won’t make this easy.
Team Liquid
Elite Plays
Dardoch, Piglet – Being the highest owned player on almost every slate is surely an honor for Dardoch and I’m not sure this one will be any different. His performances have fallen off a bit the last week or two, but growing pains are expected. Both Dardoch and Piglet have extremely high ceilings against Echo Fox and are considerations in all formats.
Secondary Plays
FeniX – Lourlo’s tendency to be Lourlo keeps him out of here, but FeniX is only slightly below Dardoch and Piglet in upside.
Echo Fox
Elite Plays
Froggen – The return of Froggen has also been the return of Echo Fox fielding a LCS team that’s capable of beating anyone on the day. Froggen’s 10.8 CSD@10 is the highest in the league.
Secondary Plays
kfo, Hard, Keith – A Malphite for the ages from kfo last week was one of the best performances by any player this season and was a big part of Echo Fox’s win over NRG. One might think Keith would be an elite play, but he’s taken a back seat as of late that ADC’s typically don’t do. I’d expect that to change, but I want to see more from him.