LoL Grind Down: NA - Sunday, July 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace. Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match.
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Counter Logic Gaming vs. TSM
| Counter Logic Gaming | TSM | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | +302 |  | Vegas Sprd | -397 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 11.8 | Avg. Pts. | 15.0 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 16.5 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.8 | |||||||||
| FB% | 49% | FB% | 57% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Darshan | Xmithie | HuHi | Aphromoo | Stixxay | Players | Hauntzer | Svenskeren | Bjergsen | Biofrost | Doublelift | |
| Opp. Season | 30.03% | 49.02% | 42.12% | 40.06% | 41.07% | Opp. Season | 25.73% | 26.29% | 32.80% | 42.81% | 43.24% | |
The biggest rivalry in esports is CLG vs. TSM. Each have won the NA LCS titles on multiple occasions and both teams are generally found at the top of the standings throughout the regular season. Each have taken a turn with regular season struggles so far this year though, with CLG looking average at best during several of their best ofs. As is no secret, TSM have looked like the best team in the west. Just as in traditional sports, rivalries often have a sneaky way of bringing teams close together in ability, even if only briefly. I still expect TSM to handle this series, perhaps even in a sweep, but it would be unwise to overlook CLG here.
We can’t read into CLG’s win over NRG on Saturday all too much, but it was on the clean side and we know how well they prepare for big matches like this one. TSM’s ability and the way that Biofrost has fit in are extremely tough to deal with, but Aphromoo can always be counted on to have his team ready to take on TSM. Don’t be afraid to look at CLG in tournaments.
Counter Logic Gaming
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Stixxay (DK $6,500, AD $7,400) – The Stixxay talk has died down significantly since MSI, so maybe he isn’t quite the player the community wanted to believe. He’s still his team’s big carry and won’t be left alone against Bjergsen, like Huhi will be.
TSM
Elite Plays
Bjergsen (DK $8,000, AD $8,200) – A week after TSM had brief struggles with concentration and discipline against weak opponents, Bjergsen was the leader in ensuring his team crushed hapless P1 into the ground.
Secondary Plays
Svenskeren (DK $7,000, AD $7,600) – Particularly strong play on AlphaDraft. I would generally be on Hauntzer more as my non-carry TSM player, however his involvement was significantly diminished against P1 and dealing with Darshan could lead to a similar result.
Echo Fox vs. NRG Esports
| Echo Fox | NRG Esports | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -103 |  | Vegas Sprd | -118 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 9.0 | Avg. Pts. | 9.2 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 17.4 | Avg. Pts./W | 18.6 | |||||||||
| FB% | 36% | FB% | 40% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | kfo | Hard | Froggen | Big | Keith | Players | Quas | Santorin | GBM | KiWiKiD | Ohq | |
| Opp. Season | -22.41% | -26.81% | -16.64% | -28.15% | -16.69% | Opp. Season | 22.42% | 16.04% | 18.15% | 25.40% | 12.82% | |
This will be a key match for fantasy on Sunday. Neither of these teams has been strong this Split and this is very much a tossup. On paper, I tend to still view Echo Fox as a team that should be competitive in this region. They aren’t. NRG hasn’t had much success either. If either of these teams wants to have a shot at slipping up into 7th place, they need a win in this series. Although it hasn’t turned into a win, Echo Fox has at least transformed to non-competitive to a mild test for opponents over the last two weeks. NRG’s form, or lack there of, has been a constant this summer. Niether team is all too prone to incredibly bloody games, but both are in the top half of the league in average game time. In most cases I wouldn’t consider that all to important, but given each have very poor records while still maintaining a high game time, there’s reason to think this series could feature three very long games. Regardless of who comes out on top, if we see a game three and all three games go north of 40 minutes, there will be fantasy points that we have to have a piece of.
Echo Fox
Elite Plays
Froggen (DK $6,700, AD $7,700) – This is a fairly safe go to against NRG. Froggen is just cheap enough that in a long series, his propensity to farm actually bolsters his ability to hit value quite a bit. Strong floor and a chance to finally tap into his upside.
Secondary Plays
KFO (DK $6,000, AD $7,200) – I’m not entirely sure what happened to KFO this season. Statistics for any player on a team as poor as Echo Fox’s still be weak, but he’s performing no better than the likes of Quas and Lourlo, which is surprising. Still, love him when he’s cheaper than Quas head to head.
NRG Esports
Elite Plays
Ohq (DK $7,200, AD $7,500) – This one is slightly difficult to stomach. Ohq has the worst KDA among ADC and GBM has resumed his lead as the team’s largest damage dealer. Still, Echo Fox are extremely weak against opposing ADCs. Really like Ohq in tournaments too, where others will stick with GBM.
Secondary Plays
None.
Apex vs. Phoenix1
| Apex | Phoenix1 | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -372 |  | Vegas Sprd | +285 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 12.3 | Avg. Pts. | 9.4 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 20.1 | Avg. Pts./W | 26.0 | |||||||||
| FB% | 44% | FB% | 28% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Ray | Shrimp | Keane | Xpecial | Apollo | Players | Zig | Zentinel | Slooshi | Gate | Mash | |
| Opp. Season | -43.88% | -41.30% | -44.13% | -44.30% | -40.16% | Opp. Season | -60.22% | -58.47% | -53.03% | -53.92% | -56.63% | |
Could… could this be it? The PhoenixWon dream has only so many realistic chances left, and this has to be one. Apex are certainly better and deserve credit for putting together a respectable season to this point. Reality has set in for Apex though, who are unlikely to hold onto a playoff spot. It’s genuinely difficult to go an entire season without winning a single best of three, but opportunities against beatable opponents are in short supply for P1.
It’s difficult to project if or when that win will come, or if it even matters. In all likelihood, P1 will be relegated, especially given how much more talented at least two of the NACS teams are than them. A single win would have a chance to change their fortunes though, especially if Echo Fox continue to lose. Seeding could matter quite a bit in the relegation battle and a win or two in the regular season would be huge. Ultimately, Apex should win 2-0 here. I do have the itch to throw a dart at a P1 player in this series though.
Apex
Elite Plays
Ray (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – Ray finally pushed his season total kills beyond his season total deaths, while still being outrageously aggressive.
Secondary Plays
Keane (DK $7,900, AD $8,000) – Compared with fellow carry Apollo, Keane is slightly favorable. Apollo is a strong play as well, but Keane is an easy cash game staple.
Phoenix1
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Pirean (DK $5,900, AD $7,200) – If you’re looking to save salary without having to punt a support, Pirean is about the best option we’re going to find. P1 players never come highly recommended, but Pirean is the best of them.
Immortals vs. Cloud9
| Immortals | Cloud9 | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -199 |  | Vegas Sprd | +162 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 14.6 | Avg. Pts. | 13.7 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 17.0 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.7 | |||||||||
| FB% | 53% | FB% | 67% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Huni | Reignover | Pobelter | Adrian | WildTurtle | Players | Impact | Meteos | Jensen | Bunny Fufu | Sneaky | |
| Opp. Season | 50.14% | 52.50% | 34.60% | 50.74% | 43.18% | Opp. Season | 17.00% | 16.17% | 17.02% | 7.95% | 14.92% | |
Cloud9’s defeat to Liquid on Friday isn’t going to deter me from saying that I think their improvement has been steady and that I see them as a threat to dethrone TSM this split. Of course, Immortals are no small task either and this series should tell us a lot about where these teams really as we begin the stretch toward the playoffs. Immortals inconsistency isn’t often punished by weaker teams, but Cloud9 are quicker than any other team in the region when it comes to jumping at the opportunity to fight if they think they’ve forced a mistake. This match will understandably be targeted by fantasy owners and I will be one of them. Three games is likely and it would be no real surprise to see games with 30 or more kills.
Who gets those kills? Lane by lane, it’s a bit of a wash. It seems likely that Reignover will allow Huni to do his own thing, saving time to focus on the bottom half of the map. Scouting and coaching is going to play a huge role in this series. Either team predicting the other’s game plan in the first 15 minutes could be game over. In the end, C9’s love of the team fight is going to make this a bloodbath win or lose.
Immortals
Elite Plays
Reignover (DK $6,600, AD $7,800) – It was the Reignover show when these teams faced back in the opening week of the Summer Split. In three games, he posted 11 kills and 26 assists.
Secondary Plays
Huni (DK $6,800, AD $7,700) – Specifically predicting when Huni will have outburst games has been difficult for his entire career. Like any top laner, he’s prone to the occasional game of low involvement, but his tournament upside is matched only by high usage carries.
Cloud9
Elite Plays
Jensen (DK $6,300) – Take note that this is more of a DraftKings only play, as he is the most expensive mid laner on AlphaDraft. Immense upside and reasonable floor, even against Immortals.
Secondary Plays
Meteos (DK $5,400) – With his KP hovering just above 70%, Meteos is a very strong play at his price.
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