LoL Grind Down: Sunday, July 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
We provide Defense versus Position data for each team, along with the RotoGrinders original stat, Pace. Every game is also broken down, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each match.
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Cloud9 vs. Counter Logic Gaming
| Cloud9 | Counter Logic Gaming | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -125 |  | Vegas Sprd | +103 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 13.2 | Avg. Pts. | 12.5 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 18.2 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.3 | |||||||||
| FB% | 58% | FB% | 42% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Impact | Meteos | Jensen | Bunny Fufu | Sneaky | Players | Darshan | Xmithie | HuHi | Aphromoo | Stixxay | |
| Opp. Season | 6.12% | 6.07% | 4.72% | 3.46% | 9.38% | Opp. Season | 19.16% | 32.72% | 25.49% | 27.40% | 29.12% | |
Currently holding onto a playoff spot at 6-7, Counter Logic Gaming continue to look for a reason to be seen as anything other than mediocre. CLG did push Immortals to a game three on Friday, and it seemed like a resurgence might be a possibility, though Immortals were still clearly a cut above. While Cloud9 sit just two games ahead of CLG, they’ve shown up in a big way on occasion, which is more than CLG can say. Darshan’s play has been a big question mark in particular. A KDA of 2.0 is a significant decrease from the 3.5 he posted during the Spring Split. Life won’t get any easier against C9, who don’t allow top laners the freedom that other teams may, as their aggressive style demands response.
The biggest note here is that we finally have a Cloud9 support who will be playing full time in the role. The writing has been on the wall since the first week of the season, and Bunny FuFuu has finally given way to Smoothie. I don’t see Smoothie as any significant upgrade over Bunny, and they match up statistically quite evenly. The one positive is that going forward, the team will know who will be joining them on the Rift and it’s a small boost to the team as a whole as we begin the home stretch of the regular season.
Cloud9
Elite Plays
Impact (DK $6,500, AD $7,600) – Cloud9 players are rarely poor choices, however I like Impact in particular for a couple of reasons. He may end up as the lowest-owned C9 member and the top lane is the only position which CLG has below average results against.
Secondary Plays
Jensen (DK $7,200, AD $8,100) – Fresh off one of the strangest LCS Penta Kills I’ve ever seen, Jensen is once again just too good to not be in your lineups. Secondary only in that CLG still have the MSI magic hidden away somewhere.
Counter Logic Gaming
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Xmithie (DK $5,800, AD $7,100) – You’ve likely noticed a theme in my articles in that I target the junglers who are playing against Cloud9. While I like C9 to take this series, C9 is the worst against junglers in the LCS when winning, regularly allowing significant points even despite being the winning team.
Immortals vs. Echo Fox
| Immortals | Echo Fox | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -1730 |  | Vegas Sprd | +878 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 15.0 | Avg. Pts. | 9.1 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 17.0 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.8 | |||||||||
| FB% | 53% | FB% | 37% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Huni | Reignover | Pobelter | Adrian | WildTurtle | Players | kfo | Hard | Froggen | Big | Keith | |
| Opp. Season | 25.59% | 38.88% | 16.94% | 32.78% | 25.93% | Opp. Season | -5.81% | -15.39% | -8.78% | -16.50% | -7.49% | |
It’s become physically painful to even think about Echo Fox, let alone observe their games. Echo Fox were lucky to even score a combined 13 kills against TSM on Saturday, and it’s likely to be a similar story against Immortals. Not every LCS underdog is tough enough competition to be a legitimate threat to the point of stealing a best-of-three off of a superior opponent, but most warrant occasional consideration in Daily Fantasy. Echo Fox have reached a point where it’s exceedingly rare that they offer enough to be worth the salary, even as low as it is. I myself have lost more than a handful of lineups to the idea that this team would put up a fight more often. I don’t recommend it.
Immortals
Elite Plays
WildTurtle (DK $8,500, AD $8,500) – At $8,500 on both sites, Turtle is extremely expensive on Sunday’s slate. This is a floor play. Upside persists, of course, but Immortals ADC primarily has a place in lineups which go the “studs and duds” route of construction.
Secondary Plays
Huni (DK $7,700, AD $8,200) – Generally speaking, Huni is overpriced. Rarely is he completely out of consideration though, because he may be the only top laner in the LCS who is capable of double digit kill games.
Echo Fox
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
None.
Team Liquid vs. TSM
| Team Liquid | TSM | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | +479 |  | Vegas Sprd | -700 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 12.2 | Avg. Pts. | 15.9 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 18.0 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.9 | |||||||||
| FB% | 60% | FB% | 64% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Lourlo | Dardoch | FeniX | Matt | Piglet | Players | Hauntzer | Svenskeren | Bjergsen | Biofrost | Doublelift | |
| Opp. Season | 31.28% | 18.01% | 18.44% | 8.40% | 15.45% | Opp. Season | 10.86% | 14.64% | 18.84% | 21.05% | 20.37% | |
Every game seems like a given for TSM. Win after win and continuing talk of how good they would be on the international stage. And yet, they sit just one game above Immortals in the standings. Liquid aren’t as good as they were during the spring, but offer real competition that TSM must be focused for. The good news for TSM fans is that after a wake up call game one loss against Echo Fox back in week four, they’ve only increased their focus.
Ultimately, it’s a long-winded way to say that it may be Immortals who are TSM’s only true competition right now. Liquid do provide the platform for what we are after the most though, which is fantasy points.
Team Liquid
Elite Plays
Dardoch (DK $4,500) – Forget the opponent. I would roster Dardoch for this price against any team in the world. $4,500 is simply too cheap for a player who always knocks a few pins down before his team falls.
Secondary Plays
None.
TSM
Elite Plays
Doublelift (DK $8,300, AD $7,900) – Double and his bash brother Bjergsen have nearly identical statistics. The biggest difference between the two is that the ADC’s ability to snipe the kills toward the end of games means Doublelift is worth just a hair more in fantasy.
Secondary Plays
Svenskeren (DK $7,200, AD $7,700) – With Reignover being more expensive and facing the downside that comes with a weak opponent, Svenskeren is the top jungle option if you can afford to pay for the position. I’ll likely roll with Sven on AlphaDraft and Dardoch on DraftKings.
Team Envy vs. Apex
| Team Envy | Apex | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -121 |  | Vegas Sprd | +100 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 14.1 | Avg. Pts. | 12.4 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 20.3 | Avg. Pts./W | 21.5 | |||||||||
| FB% | 39% | FB% | 41% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Seraph | Procxin | Ninja | Hakuho | LOD | Players | Ray | Shrimp | Keane | Xpecial | Apollo | |
| Opp. Season | -37.26% | -38.60% | -31.64% | -30.59% | -41.66% | Opp. Season | -25.79% | -28.20% | -30.71% | -32.28% | -25.84% | |
With TSM a heavy favorite as always and Immortals taking on the league’s cupcake, this is the other match which we need to have solved, along with C9 and CLG. Once in the top three in the league, Envy have now dropped six of their last seven matches, with their only win taking three games against Echo Fox. Each of their losses was a 2-0 sweep. I see this series as a virtual coin flip, with Apex the slight favorite. Oddsmakers, along with public opinion, have simply not caught up to the fact that Envy isn’t any good. Don’t get me wrong, Apex is quite average as well and this series could surely go either way, but Envy is on a very poor run of form.
Approach this series with the idea that all players have high upside. These teams do like to fight and both very badly need a win here. An Apex “upset” would further tighten the race for two playoff spots between Envy, Apex and CLG and that’s what I see happening, so take advantage of the discounts on their players. Still, it would be foolish to forget the flashes that we have seen from players like Seraph and Ninja this year, who both boast massive upside in nearly all matchups.
Team Envy
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
LoD (DK $7,300, AD $7,700) – Ninja was supposed to be the star carry for this team for the Summer Split, but it’s been LoD. His 4.9 KDA crushes NInja’s 2.7 and all of his most concerning stats for fantasy are also superior.
Apex
Elite Plays
Keane (DK $6,600, AD $7,500) – Speaking of mid lane carries, Keane is Apex’s big gun. He leads Apex in damage and gold share and trails only Xpecial in Kill Participation.
Secondary Plays
Ray (DK $6,000, AD $7,200) – Ray just can’t seem to fight off those deaths. He still has more deaths than kills, which is ugly, but not a concern for us. High upside and guaranteed involvement, even if in bad situations on regular occasion.
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