LoL NA Grind Down: Week 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders League of Legends Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of the upcoming LCS action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
The distinction in North America of who the top teams is far more clear than their European counterparts which makes this slate a little less interesting than one would have hoped. There is a very legitimate chance that each series is a 2-0 with several favorites facing off against underwhelming opponents. We do have a few interesting storylines to keep our eyes on including the impressive rookie performances from Ray and Biofrost, the return of Meteos to the LCS, and the un-suspended Dardoch hitting the stage. It’s also worth noting that MSI silver medalists CLG will be looking for their first series win of the young season. Here’s how I think things will play out on Saturday’s slate.
A quick note before we get into breaking down the games: Be sure to keep your eye on the Defense versus Position (DvP) stat we have available. The percentage noted there displays what % more or less a team is allowing to the opposition at a given position. If the number is a negative percentage, that means the team is giving up “x” percent less points to that position based on the average. Essentially, a team that is allowing a high % (in the positives) they are giving up more points than the average at that position. At this point in the season, you can’t weight that too heavily but as the season goes on that statistic will become more and more valuable.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and AlphaDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
For live game tracking and other eSports news RotoGrinders recommends Instant Esports. Get the app for iOS or Android.
Team Liquid vs. Counter Logic Gaming
| Team Liquid | Counter Logic Gaming | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | +187 |  | Vegas Sprd | -232 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 10.0 | Avg. Pts. | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 17.9 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.1 | |||||||||
| FB% | 55% | FB% | 55% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Lourlo | Dardoch | FeniX | Matt | Piglet | Players | Darshan | Xmithie | HuHi | Aphromoo | Stixxay | |
| Opp. Season | 50.01% | 30.50% | 35.87% | 29.69% | 33.30% | Opp. Season | 52.66% | 73.13% | 65.56% | 57.66% | 57.44% | |
The defending champs of North America didn’t get out of the gates the way most people expected and while it can be expected for a team that has been traveling internationally to have a slow start, it’s a little concerning that they only managed to pick up one win. Personally, I feel this team has been over-performing. It’s more than just the roster that lacks overall talent but it’s in the way they play some fights and while they often have a pretty strong draft, I don’t have a lot of confidence in Huhi and Stixxay to perform the way they did at MSI. As for Team Liquid, they apparently forgave Dardoch pretty quickly after seeing Moon in the first series as they made the change many expected wouldn’t come for several weeks. For fantasy purposes, this may not be a barn-burner that features immense fantasy value but compared to the other matchups, it may be worth considering a few players on either side. A secondary player like Xmithie or Aphromoo may be the play for CLG while grabbing one of the TL stars at a discount rate.
Team Liquid
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Dardoch (DK $5,400 Only) – Dardoch is currently only listed on DraftKings and he’s really a nice play for the value. His impact on the team can’t really be overstated as he is just such huge upgrade at his position as well as the shotcalling he provides. This CLG team is struggling so it may be the time to target them just a little bit before they start clicking.
-FeniX (DK $6,300, AD $7,400) – This has a lot to do with the value more than the actual talent. FeniX has been subpar this season and his 2016 in general has been pretty lackluster but he has a decent matchup and when you look at the pool of mid laners, he’s the only mid/low-tier option I like. A decent flex option on DK.
Counter Logic Gaming
Elite Plays
-Aphromoo (DK $5,800, AD $7,400) – With the support position being a little weak on this slate without Adrian and the rotating bottom lane for C9, the value of Aphromoo is shooting up. His assist numbers through the first weekend don’t jump off the stat sheet but his lane opponent Matt has shown a tendency to get caught out and Aphro is just such a key piece for CLG, he usually starts the action meaning he will be in line for a good number of assists. Really like his value on DraftKings especially.
Secondary Plays
-Darshan (DK $6,800, AD $7,700) – Even without Huni, this slate is quite favorable for a few top laners so I hesitate to value Darshan too highly. Having said that, his lane opponent Lourlo is one of the weakest links on his team and at his position overall. Darshan didn’t really look like the issue for CLG in their first few sets so I think he can have a significant impact in the laning phase. The biggest question will be how they utilize him in the TP game. If his teleports improve and he gets a bit more in the kill participation mix, his value will shoot up.
NRG Esports vs. Echo Fox
| NRG Esports | Echo Fox | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | +179 |  | Vegas Sprd | -222 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 9.5 | Avg. Pts. | 10.9 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 20.6 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.4 | |||||||||
| FB% | 33% | FB% | 35% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Quas | Santorin | GBM | KiWiKiD | Ohq | Players | kfo | Hard | Froggen | Big | Keith | |
| Opp. Season | 31.51% | 17.36% | 23.35% | 32.56% | 24.72% | Opp. Season | -16.06% | -19.49% | -7.07% | -20.25% | -5.08% | |
I have some beef with this matchup right here. When you compare the teams, Echo Fox looks better despite NRG having a few standout star players. If this were several other teams against NRG I would be going all in judging by the Fox salaries but I’m hesitant to do so in this matchup. Echo Fox is a very controlled team, often scaling to the lategame so they can teamfight which is arguably their greatest strength. By doing so, they often opt out of any early aggression and it severely limits the fantasy potential in a matchup such as this. NRG often runs into the same issue yet they fail to execute on the same level as Echo Fox which makes them even less enticing for fantasy. Both teams sit near the bottom in early game rating as well as combined kills/deaths per minute so don’t expect a ton of action here. I’m not going to get baited in by the cheap salaries of NRG and I suggest you would do the same.
NRG Esports
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
- None
Echo Fox
Elite Plays
-KFO (DK $7,200, AD $7,500) – KFO is my number one option in the top lane on this slate and I just love what he brings to the table for this slate. This is partially about Quas and his abysmal performance in the first week. The fact that Quas died 21 times over 4 games is just astounding and Kfo has shown he can punish poor play in the top lane. Echo Fox should be in line for a pretty big day here and I expect Kfo to be a huge beneficiary of that performance.
Secondary Plays
- None
TSM vs. Apex
| TSM | Apex | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | -350 |  | Vegas Sprd | +271 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 14.7 | Avg. Pts. | 18.0 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 17.4 | Avg. Pts./W | 20.5 | |||||||||
| FB% | 49% | FB% | 20% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Hauntzer | Svenskeren | Bjergsen | Biofrost | Doublelift | Players | Ray | Shrimp | Keane | Xpecial | Apollo | |
| Opp. Season | 50.00% | 47.31% | 50.67% | 69.51% | 65.92% | Opp. Season | -77.21% | -69.52% | -75.20% | -74.16% | -73.71% | |
Through the first week, TSM makes a good case for the best team in the region. They dominated CLG and Team Liquid although neither of them appear to be at their best at the moment. Biofrost’s impact was felt immediately and his synergy with Doublelift looks spot on. As much as I like this TSM squad, I think Apex is still somewhat of a threat. They have the tools to stretch this series to 3 games and I was generally impressed with their teamplay and shotcalling. With that in mind, I see some decent value on the Apex side of things for fantasy. Ray looks like a rising star and if Keane can just keep the mid lane interesting, Apex may have a shot. The bottom lane will be the matchup to key on especially with Apollo and Xpecial being the more experienced duo despite Doublelift’s prowess as the best ADC in North America. Apex may not win the series but this would be a statement win for either side. These are also the top 2 teams when it comes to kills per game so look for a pretty hefty fantasy day in this one.
TSM
Elite Plays
-Bjergsen (DK $8,300, AD $8,000) – Bjergsen is my number one option in the mid lane. His play looked very clean in the first week and since there are no bad matchups for Bjergsen, he will almost always have the edge against his opponent. Though I think there is some real value on the Apex side, I still want to grab Bjergsen as a stud mid laner with a high ceiling and floor.
Secondary Plays
- None
Apex
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
-Ray (DK $4,800, AD $7,300) – In the first week, Ray was probably the most impressive rookie in the region and I’m buying into the hype at least for the moment. Regardless of whether he can repeat his stellar performance, he presents enough value at his salary to make him worth taking a flyer on. Hauntzer was very strong in the first week as well but I still feel comfortable that Ray will put up decent numbers without the salary commitment.
-Apollo (DK $5,500 Only) – For the record this is going to be a GPP play only. If you are looking for a player that can be a sneaky strong flex player at a really low salary, Apollo is who I’m looking at. One reason I think he will be in position to succeed is having the veteran support Xpecial by his side. Again, probably not a good cash games option but I’ll potentially take a flyer on him in the flex spot. For what it’s worth I’m ok with going for Xpecial here instead of Apollo
Phoenix1 vs. Cloud9
| Phoenix1 | Cloud9 | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Sprd | +600 |  | Vegas Sprd | -950 | |||||||
| Avg. Pts. | 6.8 | Avg. Pts. | 12.1 | |||||||||
| Avg. Pts./W | 0.0 | Avg. Pts./W | 17.0 | |||||||||
| FB% | 50% | FB% | 57% | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | DvP Rks | Top | Jng | Mid | Supp | ADC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Players | Zig | Zentinel | Slooshi | Gate | Mash | Players | Impact | Meteos | Jensen | Bunny Fufu | Sneaky | |
| Opp. Season | -84.00% | -86.64% | -84.20% | -82.81% | -83.75% | Opp. Season | 23.90% | 26.71% | 28.40% | 20.86% | 22.68% | |
It sure would be nice if you could stack C9 on every slate because of how much value they generate but against Phoenix1 you will be looking at some steep price tags. Despite the close loss to Immortals, Cloud 9 looks like they are going to be in the upper echelon of teams in a suddenly strong NA region. The decisive calls and execution from Meteos and Impact in particular makes this team look more potent and controlled than they did in the spring with Balls and Rush in those spots. Unfortunately for us, despite the solid value a support on a team like this presents, the rotation between Bunny and Smoothie is too unpredictable to commit to. That leaves the rest of C9 as very strong options but you will have to pick and choose where to spend that salary. Phoenix1 performed as expected in the first week and it’s likely more of the same in this matchup. The question isn’t really if C9 can win, it’s all about how quickly and brutally will it occur.
Phoenix1
Elite Plays
- None
Secondary Plays
- None
Cloud9
Elite Plays
-Sneaky (DK $8,500, AD $8,500) – When it comes to C9 on this slate, you will essentially be forced to go with just one of the carries on the team to manage your salary properly and I’m going with Sneaky over Jensen here. The team is playing around the bottom lane far more than they did in the spring often devoting farm and teleports to the bottom lane in order to get Sneaky ahead. He is second in kill participation (76.3%) and he’s in the top 3 in most statistical categories. Great matchup against P1 as seals the deal.
Secondary Plays
-Meteos (DK $7,600, AD $7,900) – In building several lineups I’ve found it pretty difficult to grab both Sneaky and Meteos but going this route isn’t a bad consolation prize. Meteos is back in the LCS and looks like his old self. He’s been a huge part of the team’s victories so far and he leads all junglers in kills, assists, and kill participation making him an obvious target despite the high price tag.
Still need more data to help set your lineups? Check out our eSports daily research tools!