LoL Playoffs: Sunday, April 3rd
It’s day two of the LCS playoffs with another pair of quarterfinal matchups. Both of these series have legitimate upset potential and that will be important to keep in mind when building your lineups. Most importantly, remember that these are best of fives, which provides greater opportunity for team play to rise to the top. All four of these teams have been inconsistent at times this season, so we’re in for a pair of wild series.
Origen vs. Unicorns of Love
It seems strange to approach a series where Origen is being called a considerable favorite, but that’s where we’re at for Sunday’s early series between Origen and Unicorns of Love. Origen’s issues this season have been no secret and they’ve done little to address them, and therein lies the problem in wanting to trust their players in DFS contests. If this were our typical five game European Thursday, we wouldn’t have to and would have the option of passing over this game featuring two inconsistent teams. We simply don’t have that option, so instead we’ll have to be selective in how we approach the who and the why for choosing players from this series.
Perhaps the most important thing to note with Origen is that PowerOfEvil appears to be the team’s starter for game one. If Origen plays well early in the series, it seems likely that POE would finish it out and play in all games. However, there is a distinct possibility of xPeke being a substitute here, so right off the top I’d only look at POE in tournaments. Origen did get a 2-0 sweep of regular season games between these teams, both of which POE played in. I don’t rate this team high by any means, but Unicorns’ will have needed to rework their team play during the break to stand a chance against Origen’s talent over a best of five series.
On top of being swept by Origen in the regular season, Unicorns of Love were a lost team over most of the final few weeks of the season. An upset over H2k was a nice rebound, but inexcusable losses to both Elements and ROCCAT came before it. Loulex’s inclusion in the team hasn’t been particularly successful and although his KP is a strong 76%, I’d take the under on our projection of 87.78 DraftKings points. The team relies heavily on Steeelback leading the pack in team fights, but that will be tough when he’s likely to be behind Zven on most occasions. Unicorns will have a clear advantage in the top lane, but unfortunately for them, that’s the least important place to have your advantage. I’d like to see loulex become a more aggressive jungler and think that could be what sways this series in their favor, but loulex may not have that in his subdued arsenal.
Best Plays
Zven (DK $7,500, AD $7,800) – Origen’s horse and arguably the only reason that they’ve looked like a competent team at any point this season. Zven is one of just two ADCs in Europe to consistently have an early game lead in lane and also has the highest damage share of all ADCs. The 67% KP is on the low side, but it’s not a worry in this matchup. Zven is one of, if not the single most necessary play on the slate.
Amazing (DK $6,500, AD $7,300) – To be perfectly honest, I’m not a huge Amazing fan. His play is average at best and he’s not exactly known for having monster games. That said, I love favored junglers in best of fives. Even a jungler such as Amazing, who’s KP is only 64%, will still be consistently involved throughout the series and is unlikely to post a poor fantasy score in almost any series outcome.
Vizicsacsi (DK $5,800 AD $7,700) – It’s not the prettiest slate for top laners, so we take what we can get. Csacsi has by far the best lane matchup of any player on this slate. sOAZ is the weakest player in action on Sunday in what is surely one of his final moments as an LCS professional. Of course, Unicorns remains the underdog even despite getting to face a team with the worst of the day’s 20 players, but it provides opportunity for Vizicsacsi to have a snowballed game or two. Our official projections love Vizicsacsi and have him at over 80 points. Unicorns will need an upset for him to hit that mark, but he shouldn’t disappoint in any case.
Team Liquid vs. NRG eSports
I’ve been waiting to see this series in particular since the playoff matchups were learned. Both teams have an “A” game that rivals the top teams in the region, while also having a nagging habit of not playing up to their abilities. For Liquid, it’s been somewhat excusable as they’ve slowly improved their overall play as the season has progressed. With NRG, they were inconsistent to the final moments of the season, but did flash serious ability on a few occasions. The upside is significant for both teams here and this series should be approached with the idea that a full five games is a very real possibility.
Liquid are an aggressive team who use Dardoch’s fight-oriented style to benefit the fact that they have North America’s best ADC. Piglet and Matt aren’t going to struggle to gain advantages in the bottom lane which may even free up Dardoch to explore elsewhere if Liquid wants to approach games that way. Rookie of the Split Dardoch and his self-proclaimed clean play will be difficult to neutralize for NRG, but not impossible. NRG may consider more defensive early games than they typically like to play and that may be the way to go. Any and all Liquid players are in consideration in this series, however I’ll be avoiding Lourlo for the most part. Lourlo is probably an underrated player overall, yet still not a fantasy star even while playing for a brawl-inclined team.
Of course, Lourlo also must lane against a difficult to understand Impact. Early in the season, Cabochard-west Impact was a steady choice for DFS lineups, performing well in the box score and on the Rift. Then, throughout the second half of the season, Impact seemed to lose his touch as NRG’s inconsistent play took over while they waited around for GBM to carry games. Impact returning to form and steamrolling Lourlo in lane would be a major factor in this series, if he can pull it off. Still, GBM remains the guy. He’s the driving force of NRG’s best performances, which they will certainly need a few of if they are to pull this upset. I think it’s doable. Ultimately, this is the type of series where it’s quite possible for all 10 players to hit some form of value. A 3-0 series either way is very unlikely, while games where both teams record double digit kills are not only possible, but could happen every game. That alone should be reason to focus more so on this game when seeking value in affordable players.
Best Plays
Dardoch (DK $6,400, AD $7,800) – We already know that Dardoch can play and put up big numbers, but now he must show that as the stakes get bigger, his play must also get better. It’s no different than traditional sports in that the playoffs are a new game and the rookie mistakes one might make during a season will be punished more heavily over the course of a best of five. I for one think Dardoch will remain up to the task.
Piglet (DK $7,400, AD $8,200) – For me, Piglet is the top player and top play on Sunday. Our RotoGrinders projections have him as the highest projected player at 118 on AlphaDraft and 133 on DraftKings. That’s a lot! And he could very well put up those kinds of numbers against Altec and NRG in what could be an explosive series. There is of course a hair more risk with Piglet than with Zven, but the upside is much greater.
GBM (DK $6,600, AD $7,600) – More so than any other player on this slate, or most any other slate for that matter, GBM having excellent performances throughout the series is essentially mandatory if NRG wants to win. When GBM has these types of performances, they’re typically accompanied with big fantasy outputs. As mentioned above, it is possible that NRG will consider playing more defensive against Liquid, but GBM also pulled out the Zed pick in these teams most recent game.