LoL Semifinals Playoffs: April 9th
If you’re reading this, it means that you survived the first week of LCS playoffs, which is more than we can say for some of the heavy favorites in the quarterfinals round. The first round was a strange one with both of the 3 seeds in EU and NA falling to the 6 seed. In over 20 LCS playoffs matchups between those seeds, the underdog had only won three times coming into the quarterfinals so that gives some context as to how rare that sort of occurrence was. We also saw a few teams on the rise keep their hot streaks alive with Origen and Team Liquid crushing their foes to advance.
This slate features both of those teams facing off against H2k and Counter Logic Gaming and with an extra week of preparation, it will be interesting to see how those streaking team’s fair against a well prepped and well rested opponent. Once again, it is also important to note that there is a bonus for the players and team slot for “games not played” which only applies to players from the winning team. This bonus is 20 (DK) or 10 (AD) points per GNP for each player and 15 (DK) or 5 (AD) points per GNP for each team. Again, this bonus only applies to the winning team. Let’s hop onto the rift and get started.
H2K Gaming (-256) vs Origen (+204)
This is the finals matchup that many people projected at the beginning of the season but the storyline now is a bit different than expected. Few would have expected Origen to have to throw xPeke into the starting lineup to spark a late season surge, leading them to the playoffs with a new streak of confidence. After slotting PowerOfEvil back into the starting lineup the OG squad looked stronger but facing off against H2K will be a challenge. At this point, I’d take the fantasy numbers from OG last week with a grain of salt. Much maligned players like Amazing, SoaZ and PowerOfEvil looked to be in top form and they all put up big fantasy days but that Unicorns team they played had been tapering off for a while now. In this matchup, the weight will likely be back on Zven’s shoulders which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but take it into consideration when building your lineup. SoaZ will have a much tougher time putting up the numbers to hit value against a player like Odoamne and H2K jungler Jankos is playing at a level matched only by G2’s Trick. Taking an Origen player for a punt play is an option and I think SoaZ or Mithy would fit that mold but doing so creates almost unnecessary risk. Speaking of risk, locking in either mid laner for Origen is a gamble. PowerOfEvil still has about a 75% chance of getting the start but he’s had some of his worst performances of the season against H2K so I’m still not convinced he will be the undisputed starter. There is also risk that Origen will make a mid-series swap making both players virtually untouchable.
On the other side of the coin, I love Ryu regardless of the matchup. When choosing between the two carries on H2K, I’m going to be fading on Forg1ven. Not only can you find better value at the position, but Forg1ven often fails to deliver on his high price tag as his numbers are usually good but not great. H2K has an efficient bottom lane but it doesn’t always translate to kills and Forg1ven isn’t even in the top 3 in kills among EU ADC’s. You will likely get similar productivity out of Zven but with a much cheaper price tag. One quick thing to note is that I think H2K is the team to grab for that slot. The NA matchup is almost too close to call and I’m staying away from both teams. I think H2K has the greatest chance to close this out in 3-0 fashion as well.
Players to Target
H2K Gaming
- Odoamne – (DK $6,800, AD $7,800) – This is the low risk cash games approach. Odoamne isn’t a flashy player that will have highlight reel plays and rack up tons of kills. What he does provide is consistency which is something the other top laners on this particular slate lack. Over his last 10 games, he has only finished with under 15 fantasy points 1 time (DK) and his point projections even in a loss, is the highest among all top laners. In the 2 games against OG, Odoamne has had at least 11 assists and the superiority in the jungle for H2k should go a long way in assisting Odoamne.
-Jankos – (DK $6,600, AD $8,000) – Jankos may be an even higher priority than Odoamne as junglers have been trending upwards recently. This is also a great slate to grab an additional jungler in the flex spot so Jankos should find his way into your lineup somewhere. No team surrendered more kills to opposing junglers than Origen during the regular season.
-Ryu – (DK $7,500, AD $8,100) – Taking a look at this slate for mid laners is tricky. With the starting role up in the air, avoid OG at this spot. The matchup between Huhi and Fenix is also pretty even and I expect both to be viable, but not optimal. This leads me to Ryu who is the most talented, experienced (aside from xPeke) mid laner with tons of upside. He won’t hurt you with deaths (lowest deaths per game among EU mid laners) and he abused Origen in the 2 games played this season. In those games he had a total of 12 kills, 13 assists and only 1 death. I favor him more on AlphaDraft but he’s a fine play on both sites.
Origen
-Zven – (DK $6,500, AD $7,500) – Zven is essentially the only reliable carry for Origen and that trend should continue regardless of the outcome. The team will do their best to shut down Forg1ven and I think the price difference makes Zven a more enticing fantasy play. There is a risk that the series will go heavily in H2K’s favor leading to a sweep or 3-1 but it’s less damning to have a losing ADC than a losing jungler or top laner. For example, the difference between Sneaky and Doublelift was about 50 points. That’s certainly not optimal but when you see that Svenskeren scored 100 more points (DK) than Rush, it’s clear that you can make do with a player like Zven. I prefer him in the flex spot paired with Piglet, but he is a viable option either way.
Counter Logic Gaming (-152) vs Team Liquid (+125)
Fingers crossed but I think this is the series that finally goes the distance. Both teams are playing close to their best and Team Liquid is riding high off of a convincing series sweep over NRG. The knock on Team Liquid has been based on the idea that they have too many rookies to survive in a long series against a veteran team. Luckily for them, CLG is coming into the series with a few key rookies of their own in Huhi and Stixxay and their performances have been shakey at times, moreso than the play of Matt and Dardoch for Team Liquid. I’m a big believer in the Team Liquid stack on this slate and while the odds give CLG the edge in the series, the salaries don’t present a ton of value on the Counter Logic Gaming side. I’m down on Huhi in particular because I think he has some major flaws in his champion pool and his play that TL will try to exploit. The X-factor, Dardoch, will be mid early and often putting the pressure on the rookie mid laner for CLG and I’m not convinced Huhi will have a big enough impact to warrant slotting him into your DFS lineup.
When you talk about X-factors and Team Liquid, you have to mention Piglet. He’s been a flat out monster all Spring Split and he has the tools to carry a game on his shoulders all by himself. This is amplified even more when Matt plays Janna and in those 4 games, Piglet has an 11.0 KDA and each game has been a victory for TL. I don’t like to delve too much into champion pools during my analysis but while I’m on the topic I’ll talk about Darshan. Not only does he have a unique champ pool, but he has been able to adapt his splitpush style in the current meta. Enter the tank Ekko top lane. We have seen this be played across every region and Ekko may be the strongest top lane champ right now. We know that Lourlo has relied heavily on champions like Nautilus and Poppy and putting Darshan on Ekko would swing the matchup in his favor even more. This series will be a clash of styles, with CLG emphasizes the Darshan splitpush and Team Liquid looking for teamfights. I think CLG has the slight edge but it’s a very close call so I’ll be reserving my prediction at the moment.
Players to Target
Counter Logic Gaming
-Darshan – (DK $6,600, AD $7,600) – I typically avoid Darshan as his kill participation numbers are sub-par but he offers high kill potential and a very high ceiling. Even if you go heavy on Team Liquid, Darshan is the one guy I trust on CLG to deliver a solid fantasy outing. He’s also one of the few guys capable of going toe-to-toe with Huni which makes this a tall task for Lourlo.
Team Liquid
-Piglet – (DK $6,700, AD $7,900) – Piglet is not only the top ADC on this slate but he’s my favorite play of the day. His ownership numbers will be incredibly high but for good reason. Not only has Piglet been statistically dominant in the regular season, top 2 among NA ADCs in Kills, Assists and Kill participation, but he completely outclassed NRG in the first round. It’s hard to pass up on one of the best ADCs in the region at his current value, especially on DraftKings.
-Dardoch – (DK $5,700, AD $7,500) – He is almost a must-have on DraftKings but I still love him on AlphaDraft as well. The game is currently in a state where the junglers are producing a high volume of kills and Dardoch fits into that style very well. His best games have come when he is a damage dealer rather than a tank. Dardoch even outscored Piglet in the series against NRG and even in a loss, his projections for that scenario are quite high.
-Matt (DK $4,900, AD $7,200) – One stat that stands out to me regarding Matt is the fact that through 20 games he has 214 assists, while mithy has 179 assists through 21 games. This TL team really likes to fight and Matt is a huge part of that with his 79% kill participation. Pairing him with Piglet will give you a strong duo in the bottom lane in your lineup.