LoL World Championship - Day 1
What’s up Grinders? We’ve been away for a bit as the 16 teams which have qualified for the 2016 League of Legends World Championship prepared for the tournament. Most notable teams spent their time away bootcamping in South Korea to ready themselves against the best possible competition. Now, they’ve convened in San Francisco for the beginning of the double round robin Group Stage. This means we’ve got a ton of games coming our way in short order, and the DFS slates on DraftKings and AlphaDraft are sure to be some of the best we’ve seen this year. Let’s get right into the games for Thursday’s opening slate.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and AlphaDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
For live game tracking and other eSports news RotoGrinders recommends Instant Esports. Get the app for iOS or Android.
G2 Esports (-215) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (+174)
This is a fitting opening game, isn’t it? CLG were the tournament darlings back at the Mid-Season Invitational, while G2 vacationed their way to becoming the laughing stock. Since then, G2 have picked up Zven and Mithy, who are the unquestioned best bottom lane from Europe. CLG could not continue their magical run and instead of have seen significant drops in form. The two biggest questions for this match really stem directly from what we saw at MSI. First, will CLG’s supposed coaching and preparation prowess give them an advantage, especially early in the tournament? League is on yet another new patch and CLG is well known for being the first to find the new meta, but I’m not entirely buying that narrative for Worlds. CLG’s impressive run earlier this year won’t soon be forgotten, but I believe their performance here at Worlds is unlikely to be a repeat of that.
For G2, it’s back to the vacation. We know they took no such vacation ahead of Worlds and I think we’re about to see the best version of G2 yet, and that’s saying a lot from the back to back EULCS champions. There wasn’t really anything wrong with former ADC and Support Emperor and Hybrid, but Zven and Mithy are clear upgrades. Updates that won’t struggle against CLG. Aphromoo has the savvy to hang with this team and Stixxy has shown the ability to step up as CLG’s wrecking ball when push comes to shove, so I’m not writing them off, just not buying into it happening here. Except lane advantages across the map for G2 and plenty of fantasy points to follow during a likely win.
Game Targets
Zven (DK $7,700, AD $7,600) – An elite play on both sites. Perkz took a step back in carry duties when Zven came into the team. Zven’s KDA of 6.8 blows Perkz’s 4.3 away. Perkz does get to face off with much maligned Huhi, but it’s hard to project solo kills even in a lopsided lane matchup.
Trick (DK $7,700, AD $6,600) – This is an important tournament for Trick. It’s speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to Korea to join one of the top tier teams. At Worlds, he’ll be expected to be one of the top jungle carries. He’s a high Kill Participation player and has a very high kill share for a jungler.
Stixxay (DK $6,600, AD $7,000) – As highly as I’ve spoken about G2, CLG is going off at just +174 right now. As we’ve seen throughout this year, when CLG makes a mark against better teams, it nearly always involves a “Feed the Stixxay” type of strategy from CLG. Simply put, a Stixxay blowup may be CLG’s best bet to win, and therefore your best contrarian option on CLG.
ROX Tigers (-5000) vs. Albus NoX Luna (+1387)
Indeed, those numbers are correct. I heard you asking. We’re going to see a number of lines similar to that each time that our two International Wildcard teams are in action at Worlds, especially against top tier teams like ROX. It’s a great way to start the tournament for ROX, who enter as best team and biggest favorite. There’s essentially no doubt that ROX will win this game, which leaves us trying to dissect just how this game will play out.
Unfortunately, there’s not a ton of analysis to be done here. The disparity between the Wildcard teams and nearly all of the other teams is very significant. As far as pricing goes, rostering players from ROX is a little easier to stomach on AlphaDraft, where they are relatively cheaper. They remain options on both sites, as it’s possible that they will opt for a college football-esque style points type of win. More likely is that they approach this game with a low-risk game plan, which will presumably lead to ROX dispatching Albus NoX in short order, featuring few kills.
Game Targets
Peanut (DK $7,700, AD $8,000) – I’m choosing Peanut as my primary ROX exposure. In a game where we see a real possibility of a low kill win for the Tigers, we want the highest KP we can get. Peanut also has nearly as many kills as ADC PraY.
H2k (-110) vs. ahq eSports Club (-110)
Along with TSM and RNG, this game is important to get right. People on the right side of this are going to win the money on Thursday. For me, what happens here is really about which H2k we see. After Forg1ven stepped back into the fold, H2k looked like a different team. They had been slumping for nearly the entire split, only for the ADC who was dropped by this very team previously had to step in to replace the underperforming and injured Freeze. Somehow, it worked. H2k gave Splyce a five game series and then easily dispatched Unicorns of Love to qualify for Worlds.
So, can H2k’s improbable run continue? I’m torn, and consider them a high risk in this tournament. The fact that Forg1ven is even back on the team is shocking in itself, and the positive results equally so. AHQ is not to be underestimated, either. Back at Worlds again after crushing the competition during the regional finals in Taiwan. Faced with their year ending, AHQ swept back to back series 3-0 to earn the right to head to San Francisco. Player for player, I think I prefer ahq’s roster here. Ziv is in another class when compared to Odoamne, while westdoor and AN have seen what the international stage has to offer. Slight edge to ahq, with tilt-risk Forg1ven and Jankos yet to prove that they can perform in truly big moments on a consistent basis.
Game Targets
Ziv (DK $6,200, AD $7,200) – It’s rare to find numbers like Ziv has out of the Top lane. He tied for the team lead in kills with westdoor with 95 during the regular season. The team plays around his ability through all phases of the game. Throughout the LMS playoffs and regionals, Ziv died just 18 times in 14 games. One of the best plays at his position on Thursday’s slate.
AN (DK $7,100, AD $7,300) – AN and westdoor sport similar offensive numbers and are mostly interchangeable here. I’m going with AN primarily because I think he’s a little more likely to have an advantage coming out of the lane phase after facing off against Forg1ven and Vander.
Jankos (DK $6,000, AD $7,400) – This is the time for Jankos to step up, if he’s ever going to. I’m a little higher on Jankos as a player than some, but when you make the jump from a mid tier team up to an organization like H2k, results need to follow. Reaching Worlds was obviously a huge step that H2k fans can be thrilled with, while still expecting their team to advance from the weakest group at the tournament. A loss to ahq and that dream is all but dead.
INTZ e-Sports (+1387) vs. Edward Gaming (-5000)
Let’s get right to the point – the analysis here is almost the same as it was for ROX and Albus NoX. Edward Gaming are so heavily favored that they’re nearly impossible to roster. Hopefully at some point in this tournament we’ll see enough from one of these International Wildcard teams to be more interested in paying the premium to roster their opponents, but for now they are mostly off the board for me.
Game Targets
Deft (DK $8,900, AD $8,200) – If we’re going to roll the dice with an EDG player, it may as well be the top ADC in the world.
Samsung Galaxy (-376) vs. Splyce (+288)
Outside of the well known favorites, Samsung Galaxy enter as a possible sleeper to win it all. ROX is my winner heading into the tournament, but Samsung are the real deal. Former ADC CoreJJ stepped in as the team’s starting Support during the Regional Qualifier and played a big part in their advancement to Worlds. With a few weeks to practice and further work CoreJJ into their scrims and figure out how they want to play at Worlds, I think the break between the end of the season and Worlds may benefit Samsung more than any other team. Do keep an eye out for the possibility of Wraith returning as the starter after spending the entire regular season as the team’s Support, but I have to think that they will stick with CoreJJ. Rostering either is a risk, though.
On the Splyce side of the things, it’s a team that I really like that has found themselves in a nearly impossible situation. Group D is the Group of Death and death is coming for them. I could see Splyce being the MSI CLG of Worlds, but it’s a much more difficult spot to be in. Faced with an extremely stacked group, no amount of preparation can truly prepare you to face the quality of these teams. All that said, this team is too good to go quietly. I like them to steal a game or two at the tournament and this could well be it, so don’t ignore them in GPPs. Still, they are a heavy underdog for a reason and it will take the likes of Wunder and Trashy elevating their game even more than they did in the Summer Split.
Game Targets
Ruler (DK $8,200, AD $7,700) – Ruler stepped up as the team’s heaviest damage dealer during the playoffs, while maintaining his already impressive KP. He’s a step down in pricing from the players who are facing the Wildcard teams and is an excellent option in all formats.
CuVee (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – It’s tough to say just how Top laners will be approaching this tournament, but CuVee’s typically high KP and surprisingly high damage share are rare from his position, and that’s tough to pass on.
Trashy (DK $4,900, AD $7,000) – At $4,900 on DraftKings, Trashy is one of my go to punts on this slate. I have to stick to my guns that Splyce will surprise a team or two during the Group Stage, and Trashy’s improved play this summer should continue.
Team SoloMid (-136) vs. Royal Never Give Up (+112)
Is there really home field advantage in esports? I haven’t sifted through any data to determine just how effective it may or may not be just yet, however I can definitively say that TSM will be the crowd favorite at all of their teams. The good news for those fans is that this is the best version of TSM yet. They come into the tournament having replaced Yellowstar with a rookie, which was very much a risk for a team who needed results to reach Worlds. It paid off in a big way as Biofrost proved to be a perfect fit and his addition, along with improvement across the board, they easily dispatched the rest of North America en route to a Summer Split win and the Worlds birth that comes with it. The one bad thing for TSM is that they’ve been drawn into a very difficult group, where there will be very little room for error, and we know that things can sometimes be a little unpredictable when clashing styles from across the regions come together. I expect TSM to advance, nonetheless.
RNG could be be the other team to escape the Group of Death, and will be a team to both target and target against for as long as they remain alive. I like TSM to win today’s game, but will still be taking a hard look at Royal in GPPs. It’s not a secret that LPL teams are prone to fighting and TSM will be happy to exploit that with Doublelift and Bjergsen being absolute monsters in team fights. RNG’s best hope in this game and at World’s is through Jungler mlxg. He’s simply a better player than Svenskeren and absolutely must show his qualities in this game if they are going to upset TSM.
Game Targets
Bjergsen (DK $6,900, AD $7,800) – While mlxg may be an advantage for RNG, Bjergsen is a bigger advantage for TSM. He’s one of the best League of Legends players in the world and this may be his best chance to solidify his legacy as one of the top players of all time. Bjergsen and Doublelift have very similar value though, and it’s fair to have equal exposure to the two top North American stars.
mlxg (DK $6,100, AD $7,500) – As mentioned above, mlxg is a key player for RNG. With the highest KP on RNG, he’s also the safest play in a game that has a very real chance to be a bloody, bloody game. One of the best floor plays on the board, just given the likelihood of a “shootout” as we like to say now that the NFL season has begun.
That’s it for Thursday and if you want more, head here to watch our Worlds Preview show from Tuesday night.