LoL World Championship - Day 3
We’re back again with Day 3 of the League of Legends World Championship. It’s a long tournament and with massive slates four days in a row, interest and contest entrants have been at their highest in some time now. It’s great to see DFS esports still showing room to grow and the games have not disappointed through two days. Now, on to the games.
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Counter Logic Gaming (-569) vs. Albus NoX Luna (+407)
Fresh off a win over G2, which has certainly made things in Group A interesting, CLG now squares off against the groups Wildcard team. They’ll be expected to once again play well and collect the win, and I suspect they will. We saw a Wildcard win on Day 1 that left many wondering if EDG had really prepared for their opponent. That’s not a worry we have with CLG, as they are arguably the team we can be most sure of when it comes to their individual game preparation. They exploited G2’s mistakes and an extra game to scout Albus NoX will only help.
Of course, ANX deserves some credit. Yes, ROX ultimately seized control of their match on Thursday, but Albus were scrappy early on. That could be a good thing for CLG’s fantasy value if that’s the style that ANX intends to take once again. The prices on CLG can be difficult to pay, especially given their less than fantasy-friendly history, but I’ll be taking a real look at trying to squeeze them into some of my lineups.
Game Targets
Stixxay (DK $8,400, AD $8,200) – This is where we’re going in almost all CLG games. Huhi, especially now that Aurelion Sol was disabled, is simply not up to this level of play as a carry. Numbers will be there on occasion for Huhi, as with any Mid laner, but Stixxay will be far more consistent.
Xmithie (DK $7,200, AD $8,000) – Speaking of CLG carries, Xmithie might be the team’s real one. A monster performance from the underrated veteran against G2 was a big part of how they’re tied with the Tigers at the top of Group A.
ROX Tigers (-400) vs. G2 Esports (+304)
Can a G2 team that was soundly beaten by a team that ADC Zven referred to as a Wildcard team now find a way to compete against the tournament favorite? It wasn’t an uncommon thought that a well prepared CLG would pose a threat to anyone in the opening game of Worlds and perhaps G2 were just the victim of that. Even if it was, there wasn’t a lot of positives for G2 and they have to be considered a heavy underdog against the Tigers. Perkz hasn’t been himself for a while now and Expect is clearly a weakness. G2’s strength is supposed to be their bottom lane, which is simply outclassed by ROX’s. This game is trouble for G2.
On ROX’s side, they crushed Albus NoX with ease. They toyed around inside 10 minutes, only to never really be challenged. This is an excellent game with high upside and is one of the times I’ll be looking to try to pay up for ROX players. G2 are well known for fighting and being unafraid to take deaths if they can win the trade. Against ROX, though, they’re going to lose those trades and that bodes well for ROX’s fantasy output.
Game Targets
Smeb (DK $7,300, AD $7,700) – Named as lolesport’s top player at Worlds, Smeb is a massive advantage for ROX in this game. The Tigers have the better of it in every role, but the largest difference is in the top lane, where Expect is G2’s worst player. On a team with so much talent, it’s difficult to project just who will becomes the most fed carry in a single game, but Smeb is a lock to gain an advantage against Expect.
Peanut (DK $7,100, AD $7,900) – Once again we have to go back to Peanut. It was surprising to see his KP% as low as it was yesterday, but it can be chalked up to the opponent for the most part. Not even Trick can stand up to Peanut’s jungle ability.
Zven (DK $6,000, AD $7,200) – If G2 is going to make a real run at ROX here, it wouldn’t hurt to take a page out of Albux NoX’s playbook and get aggressive early and often. No, Zven isn’t on PraY’s level, but throwing ROX off of their game in the first 10 minutes may be G2’s only hope.
Flash Wolves (-190) vs. Cloud9 (+155)
This is a huge game and an opportunity for redemption for both teams. Each team comes in at 0-1 and will be disappointed with their performance, albeit for very different reasons. C9 faced off with defending champion SKT and were played off the Rift Sandlot-style. There’s some forgiveness for bad performances against SKT given that they are a powerhouse team who is a tournament favorite, but it was ugly. They had very little cohesion across the map and Jensen looked nervous against Faker. You want players to step up when the opportunity arises and Jensen looked like a shell of himself. Maple will take advantage as Flash Wolves’ best player if Jensen does not find a return to form.
Maple’s difference-making ability wasn’t found on Friday though, as Flash Wolves 4,000 early game gold lead was never improved upon and several mistakes later, I May grabbed Baron and ended the game not all too long later. FW were expected to win that game and a loss leaves them in serious danger of not advancing from the group, and another loss to C9 would be a disaster. The books seem to like FW, but I don’t know what game they were watching. C9’s play is going to improve from their level yesterday and Wolves simply look like they don’t have the mid to late game shotcalling to be able to hang with a high-flying team like Cloud9. I like C9 to pick on FW’s miscues during the mid game and have a great chance at evening up their record to 1-1. Ultimately, C9’s crushing loss to SKT didn’t really expose any weaknesses about their team, as they were simply stomped from the get go. Flash Wolves, at least to a degree, had their weaknesses exposed.
Game Targets
Sneaky (DK $6,800, AD $7,500) – I’ll be watching and hoping for a Jensen rebound, but it’s Sneaky who is my DFS target. NL is Flash Wolve’s weakest player and made multiple errors in Wednesday’s loss. On two separate occasions he had an I May player dead to rights, only to allow lackadaisical play see his opponent escape with their life. Sneaky, along with Smoothie, are the better bottom lane here.
Impact (DK $6,000, AD $7,300) – Even in yesterday’s stomp against SKT, Impact still came away with a respectable fantasy haul for his price point. He should top that and then some today, win or lose.
Maple (DK $7,400, AD $8,000) – C9’s biggest challenger. After yesterday’s debacle, Flash Wolves will need Maple to step up and make plays. A team in the lead needs it’s carry to show up in a much bigger way than Maple did against I May.
SKT Telecom T1 (-650) vs. I May (+453)
This will actually be the first game of the tournament between teams who both won their opening game. I May took advantage of Flash Wolves mistakes and looks like a legitimate threat to come out of Group B in 2nd place. Today is unlikely to be their day though, as they take on presumed group winner SKT, who just destroyed Cloud9. I think it would be unwise to drop all pre-tournament analysis and just assume that SKT have found the form that lead them to LCK and World titles after one dominant win against C9, but the rest of the World is on watch for that. Regardless of whether they have reached that ability again or not may not matter against I May, as I expect SKT to win with relative ease.
Something to keep an eye on is whether bengi continues to play or not. My hunch is that Blank will make an appearance at some point during the group stage. It shouldn’t be today and I think bengi is relatively safe to roster, but be aware that Blank is one of the substitutes at Worlds that I think is most likely to make an appearance. On I May’s side, it’s just so tough to want to roster any of their players, even as contrarian options. SKT was simply too good to want to pick against right now.
Game Targets
Bang (DK $8,400, AD $8,300) – It’s always close between Bang and Faker. In this match, I like Bang just a hair more, primarily because I think his advantage out of the lane phase will be larger and he’ll be more likely to be involved in any early game skirmishes.
Team SoloMid (-350) vs. Splyce (+271)
Now that was the TSM we thought we were going to see yesterday. After being considered the favorite against Royal Never Give Up on Thursday, TSM never showed up and were easily beaten. Doublelift never found his footing even in a positive bottom lane matchup and Biofrost had the rookie moment he never had during the LCS regular season. On Friday, TSM was back. They were going off as the underdog in the books against Samsung, yet beat them as soundly as can be. Svenskeren was flying around with a confidence I’m not sure he’s ever quite shown before and an apparently sickly Bjergsen was just as dominant despite being under the weather. I expect another dominating win from TSM here against Splyce, who have not looked good.
And what is it that’s so wrong with Splyce at Words? I for one am disappointed. I never expected advancement from Group D, but I did think their impressive improvement over the last few months, along with strong coaching, was enough to take a game or two during the group stage. Instead, the fact that the other three teams in Group D are a level above has been clear from the start. I’m not giving up entirely on Splyce at Worlds, but burning through my pockets with contrarian Splyce lineups is not something I intend to try again for now.
Game Targets
Svenskeren (DK $7,000, AD $7,800) – Believe it or not, Svenskeren has been the no doubt best player on TSM through two games at Worlds. That doesn’t catapult him into Bjergsen and Doublelift territory or anything, rather just solidifies that he’s as much of a DFS option as anyone else on TSM. Don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a guy who now plays a team who was just smoked by mlxg on a champion that Svenskeren very well may play.
Doublelift (DK $8,100, AD $8,000) – Don’t miss the breakout game from Doublelift when it comes, and it could certainly be this one. Splyce has looked non-competitive and that’s always going to bode well for opposing ADCs.
Royal Never Give Up (-121) vs. Samsung Galaxy (+100)
Back in Group D for what is, for me, the match of the day. My suspicion is that DFS players will flock to RNG after their crushing win over Splyce and be afraid to consider Samsung players after their loss to TSM. Pricing lends itself to this as well as DraftKings is offering RNG to us at a discount, which really leads to me to wanting Samsung exposure in tournaments. This game is extremely important for both teams as they, along with TSM, fight for seeding in this very difficult group. I see it as a virtual coin flip, especially with Samsung desperately needing a win here. It would be wrong to say that RNG has been anything other than excellent so far at Worlds though, with mlxg, Uzi and Mata looking like the nastiest trio since Young, Rice and Watters. Okay, maybe not that good, but really good.
Samsung aren’t slouches, though. TSM stepped up in a big way yesterday and any team might have looked Wildcard-ish against them. The jungle advantage certainly lies with Royal, but I Crown scares me far more than xiaohu when he’s on his game. All in all, this is a game to watch. We’ve already seen RNG beat TSM and TSM beat SSG, so why not complete the circle and see SSG get the win here, with all three leaving Splyce in the dust.
Game Targets
Crown (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – Alright, so Crowns 0/5/0 wasn’t exactly what we would call a good KDA against TSM. Against Splyce he was on the oppopsite end of the spectrum, posting a 9/2/7. Ruler looks inexperienced to me when I watch him play. He made several mistakes in both games and looks less likely than me to be able to regularly carry games at Worlds than Crown, who has far more experience at high level play. This is a going to be a lower owned, extremely high upside pick that I highly recommend in tournaments.
CuVee (DK $6,500, AD $7,400) – Looper seems to be the more well known commodity in the top lane in this game, but I really liked what I saw from CuVee against Splyce. Like Crown, he got summarily rocked against TSM and will be looking for a rebound against RNG. This is a little more out there than the Crown choice, however I’ve never been all that impressed with Looper and think CuVee can find an advantage in the early game so long as his teammates can draw some of mlxg’s attention.
Uzi (DK $6,900, AD $7,900) – As much as I’ve talked up Samsung in this spot, Uzi is in prime position here against Ruler. Uzi was incredibly dominant in both games thus far at Worlds and considering he’s coming cheaper than Ruler on DraftKings in this game, he’s hard to ignore in any format.