LoL World Championship - Day 4
We are about to close the books on the first weekend of play at the World Championships. So far things haven’t exactly followed the script. SKT doesn’t look like the struggling team we saw most recently and the International Wildcards have come to play. Day 4 features some lopsided matches on paper but at Worlds, nothing is guaranteed. Let’s get right into the action and onto the rift.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and AlphaDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
For live game tracking and other eSports news RotoGrinders recommends Instant Esports. Get the app for iOS or Android.
Ahq e-Sports Club (-318) vs INTZ (+249)
It’s time we start respecting the threat of the International Wildcard. Through their first four games of the tournament, wildcard teams are sitting at a 2-2 record. The problem is the variance they present. They can lose the way INTZ lost to H2K or they can pull off crazy upsets the way ANX did against CLG. The likelihood of INTZ winning is still low but it should give you a little bit of pause when it comes to rostering ahq players. We have seen a tale of two games from ahq. In the first, they made the plays necessary late to win the game. In the second, they ended up losing the final teamfight. I really don’t love this matchup for either team but I still have faith that the studs on ahq will be worth rostering in some scenarios and they should hit value. It’s worth noting that Chawy subbed in the mid lane for Westdoor in the second game the team played. No word out who will start in game 3 so stay away in DK. Whoever plays doesn’t really matter much to me. I still like Ziv and An to do pretty well, but I’m not going to go heavy on this game. Ahq should win but risky to roster them in the team slot.
Game Targets
-Ziv (DK $7,200, AD $7,600) – Ziv hasn’t had a great tournament but when you watch the team play, it’s pretty clear that he’s the best player on the team. This is ahq’s first shot against an inferior opponent. Look for 4+ kills and 5+ assists which would be a solid scoreline.
-Tockers (DK $6,000, AD $7,100) – This is a FLEX ONLY and probably will only be a GPP play as well. Tockers has been pretty impressive mechanically and neither Chawy or Westdoor have looked outstanding for ahq. This could be an opportunity for him to make plays in the side lanes as well which is typically where Westdoor gains his advantage. If that advantage is gone, ahq could be in trouble.
Edward Gaming (-402) vs. H2K (+305)
This group might be the most disappointing group in the tournament. H2K re-visited some of the same problems they faced during the regular season: late game shot-calling. Meanwhile Edward Gaming looked terrible when they lost to INTZ but were able to rebound against ahq though it wasn’t pretty. Players that have shown up for these two teams are Ryu, and Deft. These two carries have looked strong and risen to the international stage occasion so they are also the guys I like to target in my lineups. The battle in the bottom lane between Forg1ven and Deft is a thrilling matchup on paper but it comes down to the supports for me. Vander is very champion reliant and I don’t think Meiko will allow him to breathe. EDG should win that 2v2 and it almost eliminates the value for both sides. I don’t plan on paying up for EDG players considering the level of play we’ve seen and I worry H2K could just get rolled. Through the 2 games played in this tournament, H2K has one of the lowest combined kill and death totals so they just aren’t generating enough volume for themselves or their opponents. Not a game I want to stack but EDG should come out on top.
Game Targets
-Odoamne (DK $5,200, AD $6,900) – Mouse has been a punching back in the top lane for EDG and Odoamne has been a consistent performer for H2K. He is one of the keys to victory for the team so look for Jankos to spend plenty of time getting Odoamne ahead. Yet another budget top laner with upside.
-Deft (DK $8,300, AD $8,300) – Deft is the primary carry for EDG and it will be strength on strength against H2K. EDG’s strength should win out and Deft will be in position to lead the team in kills by the end of it.
Albus Nox Luna (+319) vs. G2 (-423)
If there has ever been a “must-win” game for G2, this is it. After falling to CLG and ROX, they have an opportunity to put themselves in a decent spot after ANX upended CLG yesterday. G2 cannot allow themselves to fall into the same traps. They were able to hang tough with tournament favorites, ROX Tigers, for the first 20 minutes of the game which is a good sign of things to come. I loved what ANX did against CLG but I think that was their “Cinderella moment.” G2 will likely turn them back into a pumpkin and smash them to bits on the sidewalk. Zven and Mithy straight up beat one of the best bot lanes in the world in PraY and Gorilla so the strong point for ANX can be nullified by this duo. The pressure will be on Trick to continue to pressure the side lanes and G2 will have to learn how to close out the game. G2 players are the highest salary across the board on DraftKings but the value on AlphaDraft is insane. You can definitely stack on AD and grab a carry like Zven on DK. G2 should win in a landslide and hopefully, a bloody one.
Game Targets
-Zven (DK $8,500, AD $7,900) – If I had to rank them, I would have Zven as a better option than Deft because I think the volume will be there. The value is even better on AD. This is a friendly slate for ADC’s so it’s not imperative to own Zven but he’s a strong play in cash games.
-Mithy (AD Only $7,400) – Paying up for support is more of a risk on DK but I’m fine with pairing these two players on AD. Mithy is the player that makes the plays for his team and he enables Trick with his shotcalling and vision control.
Counter Logic Gaming (+427) vs. ROX Tigers (-603)
The trend of projected blowouts continues with ROX taking on CLG. It’s worth noting that ROX has not looked in great form this year. Without star player Smeb saving the day, they may very well have lost to G2 on Day 3. CLG doesn’t have the weapons that G2 does to punish ROX on an individual level but they do have some clever early game strategies that can give teams trouble. As we saw at MSI, CLG is capable of beating underperforming Korean teams so I wouldn’t give them a 0 percent chance but it’s pretty close to it. With so many heavy favorites on this slate, there is actually some interesting value on ROX Tigers. For me, they are the highest value favorite because CLG is a team that will put up a fight, and ROX is a team that can get a little sloppy and turn the game into a frenzy of kill trades. One player I’m perfectly fine with paying up for is Smeb. He is just such a beast in lane and his teleport flanks in teamfights have been fantastic. Huhi is surprisingly the only CLG option I’m really considering. Take away the mid lane matchup and think about what Huhi does best. He roams. If he can turn the tides in a few fights in the side lanes, he could rack up some kills and assists and hit value. It’s worth consideration but not a top-tier option. I think CLG will hold their own for a little while but in the end ROX should be able to win comfortably.
Game Targets
-Smeb (DK $7,500, AD $8,000) – Yes, I love basically every top laner on this slate but you’ve got options now right? Smeb is just going to feast on Darshan for breakfast. Look for him to get at least one solo kill and I can easily see him finishing with 6 kills and 6 assists at the end of the game.
-Peanut (DK $7,300, AD $7,900) – Peanut has been all over the map and seems to be in the right place at the right time. Sometimes even when he is at the wrong place, he has the skills to fight his way out. ROX likes to play around Peanut so he usually is able to have a high kill participation and manage a good number of assists.
-Huhi (DK $5,600, AD $7,500) – Huhi and Smeb in the same section?! Yes you read that right and I might be going crazy. This isn’t about ability it’s about opportunity. With Aurelion Sol enabled today, his favorite roaming champ will be available to assist in side lanes and create opportunities to get some assists.
SK Telecom T1 (-470) vs. Flash Wolves (+348)
If SKT wasn’t the favorite to win Worlds before the tournament began, they are certainly looking like the favorites right now. They have dominated their opponents, stifling them with superior individual skill and macro play. Victory has never been in doubt. For Flash Wolves, if their games were to end at the 20-minute mark you might be saying the same thing. They have dominated the early game against both C9 and I May but it just hasn’t been enough. Over 5K gold leads squandered in the late game and it just feels like they don’t know how to close out. SKT will likely get ahead early and it will be interesting to see how FW reacts to being down. Keep in mind that Flash Wolves managed to knock off SKT at MSI twice in the group stage and they will need to repeat as “giant killers” if they want to keep pace with the rest of the group. Faker has been a monster and looks like he can retain the title of best player in the world so he will be worth consideration on DK. Across the board on DraftKings SKT players are quite affordable and that will be a stack to go for in cash games. I especially prefer SKT in the team slot because of how quickly and efficiently they can dispatch an opponent.
Game Targets
-Faker (DK $8,000, AD $8,300) – Stating the obvious: Faker is really good. His lane opponent Maple is a very good player but so was Jensen and we saw how that ended. He’s just playing at another level and no player can stop that even with the help of a jungler. I don’t see him slowing down any time soon.
-Bang (DK $8,000, AD $8,200) – Bang, like Faker has been playing so clean in the first two games. Flash Wolves have a glaring weak point in the bottom lane and SKT will likely expose that early and often.
-Karsa (DK $5,000, AD $7,200) – If Faker and Bang are going to be stopped, Karsa has to be the catalyst. He is a carry jungler who can establish an early lead and Blank and Bengi are both more supportive players because of the SKT personnel.
Cloud9 (-120) vs. I May (-101)
This one could get ugly folks. I May and Cloud9 have played a couple of the most ridiculous games seen on the World’s stage against Flash Wolves. Maybe they are the common denominator that makes teams play really poorly but this game will tell us if there is any basis to that. C9 has not played anywhere close to their potential and they have the upside in this matchup. I May is an interesting team but they aren’t a powerhouse with a ton of tools to take down stronger teams. I expect a much cleaner draft and early game from Cloud9 and if they can get any plays in the early game from Meteos, they have shown they can teamfight in the extreme late game. I May has shown they also like to fight in the late game but it’s far sloppier than C9 and the playmakers far outclass the I May ones in the carry roles. Impact, Sneaky and Jensen are all players I will be looking at on both sites. I May’s only player I have any faith in making plays is Avoidless. He can punish Meteos’s poor play and possibly secure an early lead but Impact is in a great spot to carry due to his matchup against AmazingJ. This is put up or shut up time for Cloud9. I think they come through.
Game Targets
-Impact (DK $6,200, AD $7,400) – I can hear him saying “Top Die” in the comms already against AmazingJ. His signature line when communicating with his team when he has a solo kill. This is a great matchup for him and one thing we know about Impact is when he gets rolling, he keeps pushing his advantage.
-Jensen (DK $7,000, AD $7,900) – This has not been a great tournament for Jensen but neither BaeMe nor Athena present much threat in the mid lane. They are also not known for roaming ability which is an area Jensen has improved. I like Jensen to make some early plays and C9 should try to win early instead of resorting to late game fights against I May.