Four Longshot Super Bowl Prop Bets for Rams vs. Bengals
In less than 10 days, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams will battle in Super Bowl LVI at Sofi Stadium. As the only remaining NFL game on the slate for the next seven months, many avid sports bettors are spending a significant amount of time scouring online sportsbooks in the hopes of cashing big on football one last time this winter.
There are countless wagers available for the Super Bowl, which we will be breaking down over the next week as part of our lead-up to the big game. In this piece, we will take a look at a few longshot bets that might sound improbable (and they are)—but with a little bit of luck, could turn into a profitable endeavor.
If looking for more modest risk, check out some of our other content on the game, such as our favorite anytime touchdown picks. Either way, we have you covered at RotoGrinders. Let’s take a look at a few lottery tickets we are considering for next Sunday.
Best Longshot Super Bowl Bets
Von Miller to win Super Bowl MVP (+5000)
Available at BetMGM
Against the Tennessee Titans, Joe Burrow was sacked nine times. Prior to last week’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, Burrow had been sacked at least twice in 11 consecutive contests. During the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 31st in the NFL in sack-rate. The Rams’ pass-rush is far more comparable to the Titans than it is to the Chiefs. Miller was named the MVP of Super Bowl 50, recording 2.5 sacks and forcing two fumbles in a win over the Carolina Panthers. Could he do it again against arguably the worst offensive line to ever appear in a Super Bowl?
Successful Onside Kick Recovery in the Game (+2200)
As of December 15, kicking teams had recovered 8-of-43 onside kick attempts this season (18.6 percent). At the current odds listed on FanDuel, the implied probability of this wager cashing are 4.4 percent. Of course, this bet has no chance of cashing if there is not an onside kick attempt in the game (which is factored into the market price). Still, if an onside kick is attempted in this contest, the value on this play is enormous in the favor of bettors. If we assume the probability of a recovery to be 18.6 percent, that is a 14.2 percent edge for bettors on this improbable play. We all remember the New Orleans Saints surprise onside recovery in Super Bowl XLIV. Crazier things have happened.
Cincinnati Bengals to Score 1st Offensive Play (+6500)
Is anyone giving the Bengals a chance to win this game? After the spread opened at -3.5 in favor of the Rams, the line was immediately hammered to -4.5, and it appears on it’s way to -5 prior to kickoff. The Rams are extremely vulnerable at the safety position right now, and are likely to start Taylor Rapp and Nick Scott in the secondary in the Super Bowl–both of whom graded far below league average in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. It is unlikely that Cincinnati will take a shot at the end zone on the first play of the game if they have the ball at their own 25. However, if a turnover happens to give them the ball on the right side of the 50 yard line–we could see Ja’Marr Chase or one of the other Bengals’ receivers make a statement to get this game started in a big way.
Matthew Stafford – First Touchdown Scorer (+6600)
Available at BetMGM
There are much better options to bet on to score the first touchdown of the game. However, first touchdown scorers are a highly volatile and unpredictable market. Do we remember Kendall Blanton cashing +8500 tickets for bettors against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Sean McVay is the quintessential over-thinker, both for the best and for the worst. At times, he over thinks himself into a bad play. He is also a master of surprises–frequently designing plays and calling them at the perfect time to shock his opponents. Cincinnati is poor at defending the run, meaning that they will need to sell-out in short yardage to keep Cam Akers or Sony Michel out of the end zone. If there is a goal line opportunity for the Rams early in this game, it would not be the most surprising thing in the world for McVay to call a fake handoff and have Stafford roll-out for an easy walk-in for six points. If looking for a lottery ticket, this could be a great opportunity for an “I told you so” moment to brag to your friends.
Image Credit: Imagn