Touchdown Odds and Best Bets: Who Will Score in the Super Bowl?
NFL fans have been treated to one of the most exciting postseasons in recent memory over the last three weeks, with each of the last six playoff games decided by one score–including five games that were won on the final play of the contest. On February 13, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams will conclude the campaign when they battle at Sofi Stadium in the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is the most heavily wagered event in the United States each year, with some forecasts estimating around $8 billion in bets made on the game. Due to the high demand, extreme popularity, and the fact that there is only one NFL game to focus on–sportsbooks offer a wide selection of props that are not typically offered for each game. As part of our daily content leading up to the Super Bowl, we will do a deep dive into each of these markets to give bettors the information they need to take well-informed risks with their money.
The Rams are currently 4.5-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, but the closer that we get to kickoff, the more the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, football bettors may find more expected value (and have more fun) wagering on player props, such as a player to score a touchdown. Let’s take a look at our favorite touchdown prop bets for the Super Bowl.
Read more: Super Bowl Betting Trends
Best Bengals vs. Rams Touchdown Prop Bets
Cam Akers – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
First Touchdown: +675
Cam Akers has been less than elite since rejoining the Rams in Week 18. Still, it is evident that Head Coach Sean McVay views Akers as the undisputed leader of the backfield heading into the Super Bowl. Despite a mediocre performance against the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card round, Akers received 24 carries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Following two lost fumbles against the Buccaneers, Akers was once again entrusted with 13 carries against the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and will be facing one of the league’s worst run defenses. Akers scored in both of his postseason games in 2020. He could be a worthwhile investment for bettors in an extremely favorable matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
First Touchdown: +650
From Week 11 to Week 17, Ja’Marr Chase caught 42.9 percent of all touchdown passes thrown by Joe Burrow. During the postseason, Chase has commanded a 26.2 percent target share in the Bengals offense–securing 20 receptions on 27 targets. In three playoff games, Chase leads Cincinnati in receptions, targets, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns (tied), has the longest reception on the team, the most yards-after-catch, and the most catches that resulted in a first down. If there is a Bengals wide receiver that bettors trust to find the end zone in this one, it should be Chase. There is little debate that the rookie phenom is Burrow’s favorite, and most trusted option in the passing game.
Joe Mixon – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
First Touchdown: +600
During the regular season, Joe Mixon ran for 13 touchdowns and scored another three touchdowns through the air as a receiver out of the backfield. Excluding Week 18 of the regular season, Mixon received 71.7 percent of all rushing attempts for the Bengals this year. Per EdgHouse, Mixon received 80.4 percent of all attempts among running backs on the Cincinnati roster. There is little doubt who the Bengals will hand the ball to out of the backfield in the Super Bowl. The Rams are strong on the defensive line, which is going to make it difficult to run the ball. Yet, getting a workhorse back who scored 16 touchdowns in the regular season at plus-money could be worth a stab for bettors.
Van Jefferson – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+260)
First Touchdown: +1300
Cooper Kupp won the NFL’s triple crown as a wide receiver during the regular season, leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Consequently, he is heavily weighted to find the end zone for the Rams in the most important game of the year. If unwilling to pay the heavy juice on Kupp, Van Jefferson could be worth a look for bettors. Jefferson has been extremely underwhelming since “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr joined the roster in November. However, Jefferson is likely to see plenty of coverage from Eli Apple in this contest, who is one of the worst coverage cornerbacks in the NFL. In a game that is nearly always filled with surprise touchdown scorers, Jefferson could surprise people in what should be a very favorable matchup for him.
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